WeatherRusty Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Not that I'm arguing. A curiosity question because I really don't know: The heat from a warming event like the 09 - 10 nino released a lot of heat into the atmosphere. How long does it take for the heat to work itself out of the atmosphere? I assume it's transferred by Hadley/Ferrell/Polar cells to higher latitudes and then radiated out. Absent the source of heat, i.e. the ocean, the atmosphere radiatively looses the extra warmth to space very quickly. Basically overnight.. However, since the ocean heat does not just instantaneously disappear, the rate the atmosphere cools is related to how quickly ocean temps decline. This all of course disregards solar input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You don't think the oceans tranferring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, & the relative differential between global SSTs & Temperatures will cause a significant temperature drop? That is kind of grade 1 physics. Global SST's should drop colder than last winter as well...does that also mean anything to you? Except we have less latent heat/hangover effect from the El Nino. The heat we see now is additional energy leaving the oceans. Interesting. It you draw a line through that graph, SST's have been dropping since at least 2002. Still not a definitive trend since its only 9 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Don't forget that UAH is manipulated/adjusted by Spencer, etc, because they want to downplay AGW and are crooked scientists. Per you when UAH was running surprisingly cold a year or two ago. I was making fun of you and others who accuse Dr. Hansen of shenanigans with the NASA GISS Dataset constantly... and still do it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Absent the source of heat, i.e. the ocean, the atmosphere radiatively looses the extra warmth to space very quickly. Basically overnight.. However, since the ocean heat does not just instantaneously disappear, the rate the atmosphere cools is related to how quickly ocean temps decline. This all of course disregards solar input. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Interesting. It you draw a line through that graph, SST's have been dropping since at least 2002. Still not a definitive trend since its only 9 years. Which makes perfect sense given that 2002-2005 was the most +ENSO period in history. Long term: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I was making fun of you and others who accuse Dr. Hansen of shenanigans with the NASA GISS Dataset constantly... and still do it today. No you weren't. And I've never accused Hansen of any such thing. I've simply pointed out that GISS consistently is the warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Which makes perfect sense given that 2002-2005 was the most +ENSO period in history. You mean in the 2000s? 1991-1995 was easily a bigger +ENSO period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 No you weren't. And I've never accused Hansen of any such thing. I've simply pointed out that GISS consistently is the warm outlier. Yeah, I think I would know why I posted something better than you. And people make comments about Dr. Hansen here all the time, I've even seen "Hansenize" used as verb meaning to commit academic fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You mean in the 2000s? 1991-1995 was easily a bigger +ENSO period. They're both tied at +.5 (1991-1995 vs 2002-2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 They're both tied at +.5 (1991-1995 vs 2002-2005) I meant 1991-1994 (4 years) vs. 2002-2005 (4 years). Equal period comparison. 1991-94 is +.6, and therefore a greater +ENSO period than 2002-05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I meant 1991-1994 (4 years) vs. 2002-2005 (4 years). Equal period comparison. 1991-94 is +.6, and therefore a greater +ENSO period than 2002-05. Well then I stand corrected.. but the large +ENSO anomaly is easily responsible for the warm SSTs of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yeah, I think I would know why I posted something better than you. And people make comments about Dr. Hansen here all the time, I've even seen "Hansenize" used as verb meaning to commit academic fraud. I wouldn't call Hansen a fraud. However, I would call him a poor excuse for a scientist in allowing himself and especially his field of science to be so politicized as to render any output from reputable climate scientists meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Well then I stand corrected.. but the large +ENSO anomaly is easily responsible for the warm SSTs of the period. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Global SSTs are nearing the bottom of the pack according to AMSU Discover; the graph shows data back to 2003. We're currently .05C colder than last year, and .15C colder than 2009 which had the nascent El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 We're still in the process of losing a massive load of OHC, it was impressive, there was enough subsurface warmth in the ENSO regions to support a moderate-to-strong el niño had conditions been more favorable. August is our last "warm" month it seems before we begin the drop, and this one could be quite hefty, and I feel there is a chance we stay down there for awhile given our loss of OHC relative to global SST's remaining quite low, as after the ORL peak in JAN it has remained high. So after applied lag to SST & non-radiative peak response, that would take us into next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 We're still in the process of losing a massive load of OHC, it was impressive, there was enough subsurface warmth in the ENSO regions to support a moderate-to-strong el niño had conditions been more favorable. August is our last "warm" month it seems before we begin the drop, and this one could be quite hefty, and I feel there is a chance we stay down there for awhile given our loss of OHC relative to global SST's remaining quite low, as after the ORL peak in JAN it has remained high. So after applied lag to SST & non-radiative peak response, that would take us into next summer. The real question is how does continued cooling/stagnation undermine AGW. 13 years and counting on steady and/or declining global temps. We should be 0.13C higher than 1998 by now, and yet we see OHC decreasing over time. Ultimately, lack of change for the warmer here will spell the end of AGW theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The real question is how does continued cooling/stagnation undermine AGW. 13 years and counting on steady and/or declining global temps. We should be 0.13C higher than 1998 by now, and yet we see OHC decreasing over time. Ultimately, lack of change for the warmer here will spell the end of AGW theory. This is simply false. The careless and/or intentional fabrication of facts on this forum is unfortunate. The unadjusted 13 year trend is +.08C/decade on UAH despite starting in a strong El Nino and ending in a mod/strong Nina. On GISS, it is +.14C/decade. On HadCRUT with UAH infilling of the poles, it is +.10C/decade. Again, despite starting in a strong El Nino and ending in a mod/strong La Nina. And going from solar max to min. The underlying warming trend is about the same as it has always been for the last 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 This is simply false. The careless and/or intentional fabrication of facts on this forum is unfortunate. The unadjusted 13 year trend is +.08C/decade on UAH despite starting in a strong El Nino and ending in a mod/strong Nina. On GISS, it is +.14C/decade. On HadCRUT with UAH infilling of the poles, it is + .10C/decade. Again, despite starting in a strong El Nino and ending in a mod/strong La Nina. And going from solar max to min. The underlying warming trend is about the same as it has always been for the last 40 years. You can't adjust for ENSO without adjusting for everything else, including variations in cloud cover, land use changes, and albedo loss due to +AMO SSTs & the BG current weakening. Also note that the globe has been "brightening" as pollution decreases. Then look at the warming profile, and increasing OLR, and you get a scenario where CO2 can only be partially responsible. A better way to do this analysis is to start from a weak ENSO point and finish at a weak ENSO point, aka, January 2004 to January 2012 would be a good representation due to the 2010 el niño spike. But regardless. CO2 influence during the past 10-15 years has been negligible in the atmosphere as well as the upper 700m of the Oceans. If energy is going into the deep oceans or out into space we don't know at this point, although given satellite measurements it seems likely that is a part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The real question is how does continued cooling/stagnation undermine AGW. 13 years and counting on steady and/or declining global temps. We should be 0.13C higher than 1998 by now, and yet we see OHC decreasing over time. Ultimately, lack of change for the warmer here will spell the end of AGW theory. They haven't been decreasing, but the trend is not statistically significant...it is full of noise...if you take out the arctic however the trend is down. Solar theory would call for cooling beginning later this decade, as soon as 2014. There are some here who want to look at specific start/end point and try to make a trend, but the trend at this point has been driven by noise, there has been no statistically significant trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 You can't adjust for ENSO without adjusting for everything else, including variations in cloud cover, land use changes, and albedo loss due to +AMO SSTs & the BG current weakening. Also note that the globe has been "brightening" as pollution decreases. The trends I gave were unadjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The trends I gave were unadjusted. I never said they weren't, but I thought you were looking for the part of the trend that may be CO2 related? The past 10-15 years are full of noise and there is no statistically significant trrend over the period. How much, if any, of the trend in the past 10-15yrs is CO2 related cannot be determined...especially will be this way while the next 4-5 years see large variations in temperature, 6 months from now we'll be back below average. (bookmark this). Right now the 1998 El Nino peak to 2010 El Nino peak is a slightly +ENSO trend and the upward trend there is weak, but regardless it is not statistically significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Global temps up at 14,000ft are on the rise again though cooler than last year still and have gone above 2009 though Global SST's still remain below normal and are now cooler than 2008. I'm thinking over the next few weeks we may see a big drop off in Global Temperatures as the La Nina comes back for another Winter season. We saw quite the negative AAO though it has rebounded somewhat but that really slowed the sea ice growth across Antarctica as we saw consistent positive height anomalies and the NAO/AO remain negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Global SST's look to cool down through the next few days as indicated by the GFS and given the warm bias, some of the warm anomalies maybe slightly over done. http://coaps.fsu.edu...raw_temp_c.html And given the SST's cooling down, I suspect land based temperatures will also cool down shortly afterwards. Greenland and most of North America cool down as well. It would seem as though the warmest anomalies are present across Antarctica given the extreme -AAO we just recently saw there which contributed to more consistent positive height anomalies. http://www.cpc.ncep....0_sh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 8 day GFS down to .17C anomaly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Latest monthly GISS: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2001 38 40 54 40 49 45 51 45 47 43 65 51 47 45 33 48 47 52 2001 2002 72 70 87 55 56 46 56 45 51 50 50 37 56 57 64 66 49 50 2002 2003 66 50 52 49 52 40 49 62 60 67 48 68 55 53 51 51 50 58 2003 2004 52 65 58 51 34 34 19 41 45 57 65 50 48 49 62 48 31 56 2004 2005 71 56 70 61 56 59 55 57 68 72 64 62 63 62 59 62 57 68 2005 2006 46 61 58 42 38 55 42 66 57 59 63 71 55 54 56 46 54 60 2006 2007 90 63 64 68 60 52 55 54 50 54 47 40 58 61 75 64 54 50 2007 2008 18 26 66 43 41 34 52 34 53 56 58 47 44 43 28 50 40 55 2008 2009 55 46 47 50 53 61 66 57 65 61 68 60 57 56 49 50 61 64 2009 2010 70 75 86 75 64 55 51 54 55 63 71 41 63 65 68 75 53 63 2010 2011 45 41 56 54 43 51 60************************* What did RSS come in at for July??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 RSS came in at +.328C for July 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Average Global temperature anomaly now down to +0.063. The GFS shows cooling waters in the Nina/PDO regions and much of the Southern Hemisphere experiences cooling and Greenland. Seems reasonable as the earth is responding to a returning Nina, not a "Strong Nino" predicted by "James Hansen". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 The GFS shows cooling waters in the Nina/PDO regions and much of the Southern Hemisphere experiences cooling and Greenland. Seems reasonable as the earth is responding to a returning Nina, not a "Strong Nino" predicted by "James Hansen". Hansen's predictions have turned into a huge joke. It's almost insulting to Climate Science itself that he is sometimes called a "climate scientist." Can he ever predict anything correctly? Looking at subsurface temperatures, there are some very cool anomalies already developing in the subsurface waters of Nino 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 AMSU global temperatures are in an absolute freefall on Channel 5. We went from just below 2010's record warmth to now being below 2002, 2006, and 2007, right in the middle of the pack. Atlantic SSTs seem to be cooling rapidly as well. The latest SST map from NOAA was impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 AMSU global temperatures are in an absolute freefall on Channel 5. We went from just below 2010's record warmth to now being below 2002, 2006, and 2007, right in the middle of the pack. Atlantic SSTs seem to be cooling rapidly as well. The latest SST map from NOAA was impressive: Not a huge surprise since the global SSTs were dropping hugely this summer...and the lag will start asserting itself. I told skier that I thought the late months of 2011 might come in pretty cold....not sure if that will happen yet since we always have to wait until actual numbers come out. But it seems on track thus far. The AMSU temps are plummeting...and I think they will continue to do so for a while on the mean (there will be little variations). We will find out how low they can go based on this Nina....I think they could possibly challenge last year's lows...but my prediction is they wont quite reach them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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