2011 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS June: +.50...up from .42 in May.

what is the Baseline?

[Clifford]

I like your thoughts man. it does at an eyes glance look close.

Can someone lay one on top transparent?

So we can see how close.

How far back do these records go?

The Data files that I've used are all listed above.

Varying lengths of records.

F10.7 - 1947 to present. Sunspots data with daily solar observations and records dates back to early 1600's.

UAH CH05 data - 2002 to present.

UAH TMT daily data 1978 to present.

University of Colorado SOURCE TSI data 2003 to present. Other data sources are available from the late 70's to present.

I'm not sure about a direct overlay of graphs, more than I've done. I can add grids.

What I may end up doing is identifying "events", and then isolating the data related to those events. There certainly is a lot of variation in the solar activity and temperatures with not all of it correlating.

And the solar output is complicated with respect to the sunspots including solar magnetic activity, coronal mass ejections, coronal holes, solar winds, and solar irradiation.

[LakeEffectKing]

what is the Baseline?

Not sure how they have handled it, but since July 1st was the official date when the switchover took place (and these are for June) I'd suspect the old baseline....but that is just an assumption.

OT.....You still low carbing??? If that is you in your avatar, you've lost a good deal of weight !

[Snow_Miser]

SSTs are dropping fairly rapidly on AMSU, and Ch. 5 temperatures have flatlined. The SSTs dropping so quickly, may be a sign that La Nina could return.

Here, we can see that the familiar La Nina-like "waves" have started to appear in Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. (See Fig. 1) This is an indicator, that perhaps, unlike the last La Nina, we may start off as a west-based La Nina. The La Nina is forecasted to become Weak to Moderate per the CFS.

The CFS has a La Nina lasting all the way through at least mid-2012.

The JMA agrees, although it has a weaker Nina.

Interestingly enough, the JMA has a -AMO developing in mid 2012! We'll have to see if that holds true, and how much of an impact that will have on falling Global Temperatures due to the weak to moderate Nina.

(Fig.1) My rough approximation of where Nino 4, 3.4, 3, and 1+2 are. There are some cooler than normal anomalies starting to become present in Nino 3.4, which may be an indicator that a La Nina may be beginning to form, and may be the reason for why Global SSTs have dropped so sharply over the past couple of days or so on AMSU.

[Clifford]

SSTs are dropping fairly rapidly on AMSU, and Ch. 5 temperatures have flatlined. The SSTs dropping so quickly, may be a sign that La Nina could return.

I've been watching the changes. The sea surface temperatures don't seem to have bottomed out yet.

The Maue Forecast seems to show significant cooling over the next few days in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see link).

http://coaps.fsu.edu...raw_temp_c.html

http://coaps.fsu.edu...w_temp_c_33.png

Here is the subsurface changes, showing a reduction of subsurface heat along the equator.

http://www.bom.gov.a...r=2011&month=07

This is showing cooling in the Eastern Pacific over the last Month.

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

The Northern Pacific has certainly developed a warm anomaly.

Anyway, this 2011/2012 La Nina seems to be slow in developing, so it may not be as strong as last year. However, it likely will have widespread global effects.

[Snow_Miser]

The sea surface temperatures don't seem to have bottomed out yet.

I would completely agree with this statement. JB also agrees... he says that the earliest potential time for an El Nino to occur is somewhere in 2012... FWIW...

I did not say boo at some of the “shoot the messenger posts” on my “Say No to El Nino”, including one person who wanted to throw out everything I said simply because of my writing style. For the record, I excelled at my technical writing courses in college, but I had a week to prepare a paper.

In the blogs, which I shared a post with you all on this matter, I try to get info out lightning fast, which is what I did with the No no to Nino post. I realize my writing is less than perfect, ( my dad actually “corrects” my writing, there are stacks of blogs at home with more red ink than the national budget) but it doesnt take a genius to see the forecast was made, and anyone objective about it can see the modeling is turning my way. And with good reason, that is what is going to happen ( the cold event will strengthen again, much like late 2008 into 2009, but not to the extent of the first part in 10-11).

This is what happens in cold pdo’s, there tends to be longer cold events, and it has an effect on the global temp. BTW the AMO may turn cold next year and we may have a cold AMO/PDO for the first time since the 1970s. 2012 globally could average below normal.

In any case, keep an eye on this and see if I am correct, okay?.. The SST will fall, as it did in the cold event of 08-09 back to levels that will spur even a greater global temp drop. The forecast for a return to normal for the spring of last year was right, there was a bounce up, that will also end, and the forecast now is for global temps as measured by objective sats to fall as low as -.25 C by March. And the models are now showing it, both the fall of ENSO3.4 temps and global temps.

But the point was to again call attention to the Hansen super nino idea because he knows there is a global temp response to warmer after a warm event. And he keeps doing this, ( this will be number 3 since the 97-98 event.) The very fact he does is an admission that it is the ocean, absent solar and volcanic activity, that drives the global temp. In addition one can argue the warming the last 200 years overall was simply us pulling out of a very cold period.

But there is major disconnect now between CO2′s continued rise and the overall leveling off of the temp, and the response to the global temp to the enso3.4 antics and the PDO overall is there for all to be seen.

We can really also see with the cooling of the Nino regions, how nicely Hansen's predictions of a strong El Nino by the summer played out.

[Clifford]

I would completely agree with this statement. JB also agrees... he says that the earliest potential time for an El Nino to occur is somewhere in 2012... FWIW...

We can really also see with the cooling of the Nino regions, how nicely Hansen's predictions of a strong El Nino by the summer played out.

A pretty moderate drop in sea surface temperatures today, and the 05 temperatures jumped again.

The El Niño / La Niña transitions seem to happen in the summer (May/June/July), and I think we've missed the window for a new El Niño this year. So... perhaps the summer of 2012. The Niño 1/2 & 3 would have shown signs of El Niño temperatures, but certainly the La Niña retained influence over the global ocean temperatures.

For the rest of the year, I presume the ocean temperatures will continue to generally slide until at least December 2011. My guess is that the global ocean temperatures will bottom out close to the fall 2010 temperatures.

[Mencken_Fan]

I would completely agree with this statement. JB also agrees... he says that the earliest potential time for an El Nino to occur is somewhere in 2012... FWIW...

We can really also see with the cooling of the Nino regions, how nicely Hansen's predictions of a strong El Nino by the summer played out.

JB says the AMO may go negative next year. Isn't that a bit soon being it only went positive in (1995?)

[Clifford]

JB says the AMO may go negative next year. Isn't that a bit soon being it only went positive in (1995?)

Right.

There is a lot of short-term variation. But, overall we will probably have another 15 years or so of +AMO. So, perhaps between 2020 and 2030 we would see a long-term transition to -AMO.

http://en.wikipedia....dal_oscillation

PDO seems to be in its negative phase, and should remain negative for another 20 to 30 years or so, although it is tightly tied to La Nina currents, and may be more variable overall.

http://cses.washingt.../aboutpdo.shtml

So, other than short-term variability, it won't be until about 2025 when there will likely be an overlap of the two phases for a few years.

There, could, however, be some brief periods with both negative AMO and negative PDO due to the normal variation of ocean temperatures.

[Clifford]

July 28, 29, & 30 marks the annual peak in the UAH CH5 Average Temperatures (which closely follow the UAH TMT temperatures) (based on previously published average temperatures).

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch05.r002.txt

So, from now on, we should start getting cooler, although it doesn't necessarily affect the anomalies.

[ORH_wxman]

UAH July: +0.37C

[skierinvermont]

That was fast. Year to date up to .12C. Everyone except Rusty looking mighty silly at this point, including myself.

[ORH_wxman]

That was fast. Year to date up to .12C. Everyone except Rusty looking mighty silly at this point, including myself.

The last few months might come in pretty cold though as global SSTs are now where they were back last October and November and dropping.

[skierinvermont]

Interestingly, I just noticed that July 2011 is warmer than any month from September 1998 to June 2009 except for January 2007.

June and July 2011 are the warmest 2 month period from September 1998 to June 2009.

That period includes multiple periods of El Nino and neutral ENSO conditions. And yet the past two months have been warmer despite the recent Nina and neutral-negative conditions at present.

The past two months have been very warm given the ENSO state.

[OHSnow]

Interestingly, I just noticed that July 2011 is warmer than any month from September 1998 to June 2009 except for January 2007.

June and July 2011 are the warmest 2 month period from September 1998 to June 2009.

That period includes multiple periods of El Nino and neutral ENSO conditions. And yet the past two months have been warmer despite the recent Nina and neutral-negative conditions at present.

The past two months have been very warm given the ENSO state.

Yeah, most of the warming has been land-based. Dr. Spencer posted an image showing SSTs and they were below the 2002-2011 baseline. The SST image was based off AMSR-E, which has only been operational since 2002 so it's a different base period and would probably be a little above normal on the full 1981-2010 baseline, but still relatively low compared to other years (such as late 2009 and much of last year). Interestingly, whereas many of the recent months seemed to have been warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, this past month was warmer down South. Now, that may just be related to the fact that it's winter there and the wintertime tends to be more susceptible to large swings but I'm not sure.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah, most of the warming has been land-based. Dr. Spencer posted an image showing SSTs and they were below the 2002-2011 baseline. The SST image was based off AMSR-E, which has only been operational since 2002 so it's a different base period and would probably be a little above normal on the full 1981-2010 baseline, but still relatively low compared to other years (such as late 2009 and much of last year). Interestingly, whereas many of the recent months seemed to have been warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, this past month was warmer down South. Now, that may just be related to the fact that it's winter there and the wintertime tends to be more susceptible to large swings but I'm not sure.

Don't forget that the warming on UAH is at 15,000 feet which may be behaving quite differently than SSTs which are at the surface. UAH TLT warming may be over the land or ocean or both.

[BethesdaWX]

Interestingly, I just noticed that July 2011 is warmer than any month from September 1998 to June 2009 except for January 2007.

June and July 2011 are the warmest 2 month period from September 1998 to June 2009.

That period includes multiple periods of El Nino and neutral ENSO conditions. And yet the past two months have been warmer despite the recent Nina and neutral-negative conditions at present.

The past two months have been very warm given the ENSO state.

It isn't unusual given how much heat content from the oceans has been transferred into the atmosphere.

This is likely setting the stage for a heavy drop in global temperatures this winter, perhaps lower than what we had last winter, in fact it wouldbe hard not to at this rate. We have lost a very large amount of heat content from the oceans to the atmosphere this spring/summer in a rapid flux, this is evident in the ENSO subsurface animation. It's not that surface SST's have warmed, but simply the oceans transfer heat into the atmosphere in varying fluxes. In this case we have seen SSTs continue to cool while the atmosphere has continued to warm, as heat content has been tranferred into the atmosphere.

When taking this into account, and knowing global SST's are actually relatively cool on the AQUA baseline, we have a large imbalance in relativity between the Ocean Temperatures and the Atmospheric Temperatures.

So in thisa case once we cool down the temperature during this La Nina, and knowing the ENSO OHC in general was likely the ENSO rebound response in relaitivity flux between ENSO states, La Nina may also prevail in 2012-13.

True, but much of the recent warming cannot be attributed to SSTs in any case. The image below shows the smoothed line fell to about -.11C (against a 2002-2011 baseline) in early January and peaked at about -.03C around July 1. So, SSTs only explain about .08C of the .38C warming observed between January and July. It appears that most of the warming has been driven by land-based air temperatures, which is really impressive considering land is only about 30% of the globe.

Correct Ytterbium, the warmth is a result of the cceans releasing heat into the atmosphere.

[OHSnow]

The last few months might come in pretty cold though as global SSTs are now where they were back last October and November and dropping.

True, but much of the recent warming cannot be attributed to SSTs in any case. The image below shows the smoothed line fell to about -.11C (against a 2002-2011 baseline) in early January and peaked at about -.03C around July 1. So, SSTs only explain about .08C of the .38C warming observed between January and July. It appears that most of the warming has been driven by land-based air temperatures, which is really impressive considering land is only about 30% of the globe.

Of course, that does raise some issues. Oceans have a lot of built-in inertia because of the high heat capacity of water, whereas land temperatures are subject to greater swings (both up and down). So a lot of the temperature trends will probably depend on exactly how the weather patterns set up.

[OHSnow]

Don't forget that the warming on UAH is at 15,000 feet which may be behaving quite differently than SSTs which are at the surface. UAH TLT warming may be over the land or ocean or both.

Oh, I was mistaken then. The surface temperature record is based off the actual SSTs though right?

[skierinvermont]

Oh, I was mistaken then. The surface temperature record is based off the actual SSTs though right?

Yes, but we haven't seen the same degree of surface warming over the last 6 months at the surface. Surface temps remain fairly cool after only a small increase, probably because SSTs remain so cold.

[skierinvermont]

This is likely setting the stage for a heavy drop in global temperatures this winter, perhaps lower than what we had last winter, in fact it wouldbe hard not to at this rate.

Bookmarked.

[BethesdaWX]

Bookmarked.

You don't think the oceans tranferring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, & the relative differential between global SSTs & Temperatures will cause a significant temperature drop? That is kind of grade 1 physics.

Global SST's should drop colder than last winter as well...does that also mean anything to you? Except we have less latent heat/hangover effect from the El Nino. The heat we see now is additional energy leaving the oceans.

[ORH_wxman]

You don't think the oceans tranferring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, & the relative differential between global SSTs & Temperatures will cause a significant temperature drop? That is kind of grade 1 physics.

Global SST's should drop colder than last winter as well...does that also mean anything to you? Except we have less latent heat/hangover effect from the El Nino. The heat we see now is additional energy leaving the oceans.

Why do you say that?

Global SSTs are definitely dropping in a lot of areas other than ENSO, but why should we expect a drop greater than last winter? I expect ENSO to cool a bit, but that doesn't mean the rest of the globe will cooperate.

One thing I agree on is that we will see temps drop again at some point this year. How much? I won't claim to know. Skier made a good point about the warmth despite global SSTs not being all that high at any point this year. Is it a lag from Nino last year that is not understood? Unlikely...but then again we have poor understanding of ocean heat to atmosphere heat relationships when it comes to these things....which is exactly what the OHC/Global temp conundrum the last 8 years has taught us (Spencer's paper indirectly tries to address this)...and I'm sure we'll be taught many more lessons.

But despite the speculation...for 2011, I think we'll see a decent drop in the final few months.

[skierinvermont]

You don't think the oceans tranferring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, & the relative differential between global SSTs & Temperatures will cause a significant temperature drop? That is kind of grade 1 physics.

Global SST's should drop colder than last winter as well...does that also mean anything to you? Except we have less latent heat/hangover effect from the El Nino. The heat we see now is additional energy leaving the oceans.

I didn't say that.

It does make sense that the warm pool surfacing in the equatorial Pacific may be responsible for at least some of the warming. I'd like to see some solid mathematical proof of this before believing it 100% but it makes sense. To prove it I would like to see the math showing that the amount of heat released was enough to warm the entire atmosphere (remember we are talking about a relatively small area of ocean) and/or a correlation between such warm or cold upwelling and the 3 month lagged temperature.

However, the reasons I doubt that it will be colder than early 2010 any time in the next year are:

1. The coldest anomalies in early 2010 were intense but brief. There were probably numerous short-term factors acting simultaneously to produce such a sharp intense cold period. Most Ninas do not feature such an intense brief cold period. So if we see a Nina this fall/winter, I don't think we will repeat the same intense brief cold shot.

2. I don't think the Nina this fall/winter will be as strong.

3. The second year Nina in 99-00 was not especially cold.

If we do have a moderate Nina this winter, I could see next year being as cold or possibly slightly colder than this year was. But even then, I think it would be unlikely to see a -.1C anomaly repeated.

[BethesdaWX]

I didn't say that.

It does make sense that the warm pool surfacing in the equatorial Pacific may be responsible for at least some of the warming. I'd like to see some solid mathematical proof of this before believing it 100% but it makes sense. To prove it I would like to see the math showing that the amount of heat released was enough to warm the entire atmosphere (remember we are talking about a relatively small area of ocean) and/or a correlation between such warm or cold upwelling and the 3 month lagged temperature.

I could try to do that, but it would take awhile and it is getting late. However to note that had atmospheric conditions been favorable El Nino Re-developmnent this year we would have had another moderate or strong El Nino on our hands given subsurface waters. Instead that Heat content was thrust into the atmosphere within a 4 month timeframe. This is why I really want a satellite system to measure subsurface waters throughout the global oceans someday, this would help us quite a bit.

Also to figure the ENSO regions if the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Hold just about as much energy as the atmosphere combined, maybe more-so. But you'll not that temperatures didn't increase until the warm subsurface waters began the release into the atmosphere. But whatever the circumstance, the heat was largely transferred from the oceans into the atmosphere.

However, the reasons I doubt that it will be colder than early 2010 any time in the next year are:

1. The coldest anomalies in early 2010 were intense but brief. There were probably numerous short-term factors acting simultaneously to produce such a sharp intense cold period. Most Ninas do not feature such an intense brief cold period. So if we see a Nina this fall/winter, I don't think we will repeat the same intense brief cold shot.

2. I don't think the Nina this fall/winter will be as strong.

3. The second year Nina in 99-00 was not especially cold.

Well exactly, the coldest anomalies were brief, and it could be due to a number factors, for one the release of high OHC, but also perhaps a spike of low cloud cover, changes in stratospheric ozone, etc. But global SST's themselves have to have a relation to global temperature within a mean base + deviations...so in the end global temps shoudl follow global SSTs in a time lag, deviations will obviouslty occur though on short timescales. In this case global SST's should be lower this yr compared to last yr, which is my reasoning. Simply put, colder global SST's usually lead to colder temperatures.

Plus I think you and I actually discovered the error in the NOAA satellite for the Absurdly cold 2000/2001 SST's after the 1998 super-nino, no? And this is exactly

If we do have a moderate Nina this winter, I could see next year being as cold or possibly slightly colder than this year was. But even then, I think it would be unlikely to see a -.1C anomaly repeated.

I would agree with this if global SST's were to remain equal to last winter, but in this case there is a higher likelyhood that they drop lower.

[BethesdaWX]

Why do you say that?

Global SSTs are definitely dropping in a lot of areas other than ENSO, but why should we expect a drop greater than last winter? I expect ENSO to cool a bit, but that doesn't mean the rest of the globe will cooperate.

One thing I agree on is that we will see temps drop again at some point this year. How much? I won't claim to know. Skier made a good point about the warmth despite global SSTs not being all that high at any point this year. Is it a lag from Nino last year that is not understood? Unlikely...but then again we have poor understanding of ocean heat to atmosphere heat relationships when it comes to these things....which is exactly what the OHC/Global temp conundrum the last 8 years has taught us (Spencer's paper indirectly tries to address this)...and I'm sure we'll be taught many more lessons.

But despite the speculation...for 2011, I think we'll see a decent drop in the final few months.

Well I admit it is somewhat assumption based off of modeling, but also the potential of latent SST heat from the El Nino Event in various places around the globe, moved a bit, but they appeared to be there. So yes it is assumption, a prediction.

As for the warmth this summer, yes I also understand our understanding is poor, and the warm summer could be due to various factors such as cloud cover, but if you look in the ENSO subsurface, you can see that the Warmer Waters have vanished...that was enough Subsurface warmth to translate to another Strong Nino had conditions been favorable...now that heat is nowhere to be seen in the oceans...but it is in the atmosphere...heat just can't "disappear", it has to go somewhere.

[ORH_wxman]

Well I admit it is somewhat assumption based off of modeling, but also the potential fact that there was indeed latent SST heat from the El Nino Event in various places around the globe, moved a bit, but they appeared to be there.

As for the warmth this summer, yes I also understand our understanding is poor, and the warm summer could be due to various factors such as cloud cover, but if you look in the ENSO subsurface, you can see that the Warmer Waters have vanished...that was enough Subsurface warmth to translate to another Strong Nino had conditions been favorable...now that heat is nowhere to be seen in the oceans...but it is in the atmosphere...heat just can't "disappear", it has to go somewhere.

Right, but where? It seems the atmosphere this time, but that has not been the case the last 8-9 years. We don;'t know where the heat goes all the time.

[BethesdaWX]

Right, but where? It seems the atmosphere this time, but that has not been the case the last 8-9 years. We don;'t know where the heat goes all the time.

Well I agree, maybe it is simply escaping into the outer-space as the Satellite measurements suggest, or at different times between radiative trough and peak. And I think this holds true for not only heat/energy budget changes due to CO2, but from all factors.

This is why if we could find a way to get a satellite to measure the global subsurface we'd have many questions answered, including what causes the PDO oscillation, if indeed the deep oceans are warming, or if it is not in the oceans, it has to be escaping into space at a faster than expacted rate.

[tacoman25]

Yeah, most of the warming has been land-based. Dr. Spencer posted an image showing SSTs and they were below the 2002-2011 baseline. The SST image was based off AMSR-E, which has only been operational since 2002 so it's a different base period and would probably be a little above normal on the full 1981-2010 baseline, but still relatively low compared to other years (such as late 2009 and much of last year). Interestingly, whereas many of the recent months seemed to have been warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, this past month was warmer down South. Now, that may just be related to the fact that it's winter there and the wintertime tends to be more susceptible to large swings but I'm not sure.

Don't forget that UAH is manipulated/adjusted by Spencer, etc, because they want to downplay AGW and are crooked scientists.

Per you when UAH was running surprisingly cold a year or two ago.

[Quixotic1]

You don't think the oceans tranferring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, & the relative differential between global SSTs & Temperatures will cause a significant temperature drop? That is kind of grade 1 physics.

Global SST's should drop colder than last winter as well...does that also mean anything to you? Except we have less latent heat/hangover effect from the El Nino. The heat we see now is additional energy leaving the oceans.

Not that I'm arguing. A curiosity question because I really don't know: The heat from a warming event like the 09 - 10 nino released a lot of heat into the atmosphere. How long does it take for the heat to work itself out of the atmosphere? I assume it's transferred by Hadley/Ferrell/Polar cells to higher latitudes and then radiated out.