2011 Global Temperatures

[nzucker]

The reason 2011 is warmer than expected is because we nearly went into an El Niño when everyone expected a multi-year Niña like the -PDO analogs of 1955-1957 and 1973-1976. There's clearly a warm ENSO signature in both the subsurface and surface, so that explains the rise.

It looks as if the danger of an El Niño is mostly past now, and with the cooler waters returning to the ENSO regions and low global SSTs, Channel 5/UAH should drop off again, the opposite of 2008 which was a year where a strong Niña controlled early and then faded.

[tacoman25]

The reason 2011 is warmer than expected is because we nearly went into an El Niño when everyone expected a multi-year Niña like the -PDO analogs of 1955-1957 and 1973-1976. There's clearly a warm ENSO signature in both the subsurface and surface, so that explains the rise.

It looks as if the danger of an El Niño is mostly past now, and with the cooler waters returning to the ENSO regions and low global SSTs, Channel 5/UAH should drop off again, the opposite of 2008 which was a year where a strong Niña controlled early and then faded.

There was never a strong case for a Nino. Many of us made that clear months ago. Hansen has always struggled with predicting ENSO, and has almost always leaned towards +ENSO too much. Gee, wonder why?

[Isotherm]

There was never a strong case for a Nino. Many of us made that clear months ago. Hansen has always struggled with predicting ENSO, and has almost always leaned towards +ENSO too much. Gee, wonder why?

Yeah, I have been on board the weak Nina train for autumn/winter and still am; there was never any real danger of a Nino, especially a strong one coming on. I guess with global temps not shooting through the roof, Hansen needs to grasp for any natural straws to force temps up, i.e a powerful +ENSO event, then claim that the ENSO induced warming is due to us.

[nzucker]

Yeah, I have been on board the weak Nina train for autumn/winter and still am; there was never any real danger of a Nino, especially a strong one coming on. I guess with global temps not shooting through the roof, Hansen needs to grasp for any natural straws to force temps up, i.e a powerful +ENSO event, then claim that the ENSO induced warming is due to us.

I think the Niña will probably be weaker than 08-09, which got all the way back to -0.8C trimonthly; I was thinking of a winter like 66-67 which had a borderline negative-neutral regime with a -NAO.

Hansen's ENSO modeling was the one that also predicted a strong Niño for 07-08....we know the opposite happened that year! With the globe barely warming at all (only .06C/decade in the last 10 years using RSS, and close to .1C/decade on GISS/Hadley, still well less than forecasted), Hansen needs all the help he can get to keep the AGW cause alive and well.

[skierinvermont]

You have responded negatively to one day comparisons in the past. Yet you have done the same thing yourself. Pretty straightforward. Just like you have held skeptic scientists to different standards than guys like Hansen, and defended Hansen while attacking Spencer.

Your bias certainly does affect your judgements.

I have responded negatively when posters have drawn conclusions from one day comparisons like "IPCC continues to fail.." or "where is the AGW?" because one day was cold. I made no such comment. I simply stated a straightforward fact. I'm sorry you can't understand this distinction.

[skierinvermont]

The reason 2011 is warmer than expected is because we nearly went into an El Niño when everyone expected a multi-year Niña like the -PDO analogs of 1955-1957 and 1973-1976. There's clearly a warm ENSO signature in both the subsurface and surface, so that explains the rise.

It looks as if the danger of an El Niño is mostly past now, and with the cooler waters returning to the ENSO regions and low global SSTs, Channel 5/UAH should drop off again, the opposite of 2008 which was a year where a strong Niña controlled early and then faded.

There is a 6 month lag to ENSO.. subsurface waters have absolutely no affect on current tropospheric temperatures. There probably won't be a single trimonthly on the ONI which goes above zero. We have paralleled 2008 in the ONI almost exactly. And yet we have been much warmer.

So this idea that some how the ONI is why we are warmer than 2008

1) there ONI is not and has not been significantly higher than 2008. Initially it was .1-.2C colder, now it is .1-.2C warmer. This is nothing.

2) ONI was warmer than 2008 (which it isn't), there is a 6 month lag to tropospheric temperatures

But who needs facts when we can just pretend that 2011 is warmer than 2008 because "we nearly went into a Nino." ENSO has been nearly exactly the same as 2008 for the past 9 months. But who needs facts?

[nzucker]

There is a 6 month lag to ENSO.. subsurface waters have absolutely no affect on current tropospheric temperatures. There probably won't be a single trimonthly on the ONI which goes above zero. We have paralleled 2008 in the ONI almost exactly. And yet we have been much warmer.

So this idea that some how the rise in ENSO has caused warming is impossible for two basic reasons:

1) there is no Nino and the ONI has paralleled 2008 nearly perfectly

2) even if there was a Nino, there is a 6 month lag to tropospheric temperatures

But who needs facts?

The lag time is not set in stone....5 months is probably average but it's highly individual to every ENSO/SST event. Also, the deterioration of this La Niña started in March, which was nearly 4 months ago; the cold ENSO was much healthier during Spring 2008 than Spring 2011. How do you know exactly how the satellites respond to every subtle change in SSTs or ENSO circulation?

The current SST signature is highly reflective of a Niño with very warm waters near Peru, even though they've faded some recently:

Also, a lot of people were looking at analogs like the 1955-1957 Niña...the warmest ONI we got after 54-55 was -0.9C...obviously we're going to be warmer than expected in early-year guesses if people are looking at analogs like that, which had much more persistence of -ENSO conditions throughout the summer, whereas 2011 warmed to around neutral.

It's probably a small factor but can't be ignored...the largest factors I see are the preceding El Niño and the unusually cold stratosphere which causes the LT to be warm. But I still don't think this year is running that warm. Overall, it's probably adding to the skeptics' case more than anything else of a plateau in warming that started in either 1998 or early 2000s. We're only running .06C warmer than 2008 finished, and that's well inside the margin of error for two individual years being measured on the satellites. Also, we rate to see some cool months late this year if we have resurgence of cold ENSO conditions, especially when they are paralleled with a warmer stratosphere as may be the case in a low solar/-QBO winter.

[nzucker]

To address Skier's point, the 2011 Pacific SSTs look pretty similar to 2008 now, but earlier in the spring the difference was pronounced. We had a strong MJO wave in January, and then another one in May, that crippled the Niña. We've definitely seen a more aggressive +ENSO push this year...

Here was 2008:

2011:

And I just don't see the whole point of judging the year before it finishes...if we go back to Niña, Oct-Dec will come in pretty cool on the satellites probably.

[skierinvermont]

To address Skier's point, the 2011 Pacific SSTs look pretty similar to 2008 now, but earlier in the spring the difference was pronounced. We had a strong MJO wave in January, and then another one in May, that crippled the Niña. We've definitely seen a more aggressive +ENSO push this year...

I don't care what the maps show.. the numbers don't lie. The ONI was never more than two tenths above 2008. And this is in addition to the fact that the ONI was two tenths colder than 2008 most of last fall and early winter.

Using dramatic words like "crippled" doesn't change the fact that the decline of the 2011 Nina was not significantly different than the decline of the 2008 Nina. You can post maps until you are blue in the face, but the evolution of ENSO over the past 6 months does not explain why we have been so much warmer than 2008. The difference is tiny, and the timing is not correct.

[nzucker]

I don't care what the maps show.. the numbers don't lie. The ONI was never more than two tenths above 2008. And this is in addition to the fact that the ONI was two tenths colder than 2008 most of last fall and early winter.

Using dramatic words like "crippled" doesn't change the fact that the decline of the 2011 Nina was not significantly different than the decline of the 2008 Nina. You can post maps until you are blue in the face, but the evolution of ENSO over the past 6 months does not explain why we have been so much warmer than 2008. The difference is tiny, and the timing is not correct.

ONI is a very generalized measure that only encapsulates one region at a monthly interval. Looking at SST maps is much more instructive.

It's like saying in winter "Oh we have a -NAO so we are going to get a Kocin." If you look at height maps and see the block over Iceland, forget it.

[skierinvermont]

ONI is a very generalized measure that only encapsulates one region at a monthly interval. Looking at SST maps is much more instructive.

It's like saying in winter "Oh we have a -NAO so we are going to get a Kocin." If you look at height maps and see the block over Iceland, forget it.

Well if you want to talk about the waters outside of the strictly ENSO region, they are clearly much colder in 2011 than they were in 2008 on this date. The waters immediately north and south of the ENSO regions are much colder at present. The California current and the Humboldt current are clearly much colder at present.

Moreover, these currents are distinctly different from ENSO variability. Which is exactly why I suggested initially that the reasons for the difference between 2011 and 2008 is NOT ENSO. There is something else. Whether it is solar, or the Humboldt current, or the California current, or the PDO, or the AMO, or something else entirely, I have no idea. Whatever it is, it was clearly unexpected to all of us. And it is NOT ENSO... which has been nearly identical to 2008. There is another reason for 2011 being warmer than 2008.

[nzucker]

Well if you want to talk about the waters outside of the strictly ENSO region, they are clearly much colder in 2011 than they were in 2008 on this date. The waters immediately north and south of the ENSO regions are much colder at present. The California current and the Humboldt current are clearly much colder at present.

Moreover, these currents are distinctly different from ENSO variability. Which is exactly why I suggested initially that the reasons for the difference between 2011 and 2008 is NOT ENSO. There is something else. Whether it is solar, or the Humboldt current, or the California current, or the PDO, or the AMO, or something else entirely, I have no idea. Whatever it is, it was clearly unexpected to all of us. And it is NOT ENSO... which has been nearly identical to 2008.

But if you look at the maps posted above, the El Niño did make a bigger impact this year. Both years have warm waters in the eastern regions near Peru, which is common upon the dissipation of a cold ENSO event, but 2011 has both warmer waters there as well as better extension westward of the warmth. The warmth near the South American coast is both more exaggerated this year, and has more of an impact on the western regions which warmed quickly this spring. Obviously, though, "ENSO" is a disparate phenomenon since the oceans are all connected...and yes, I'd agree that the California Current and Humboldt/Antarctic Current are more pronounced this year than in 2008. As long as that mammoth 1028mb high pressure is anchored offshore the Pacific Coast, too, the PDO will stay very negative with strong northerly flow along the West Coast. OT, but this should also make the threat for Sonoran heat waves continuous with the pattern favoring a cold West/Northwest.

I think ENSO is probably a small part of the picture. The previous Niño and the warm AMO have obviously warmed the LT some as well, as has the cold stratosphere. Those are probably the main factors. We can also include the fact that 2008 came at the heart of the solar minimum in Cycle 24 with long periods of no sunspots, whereas we've seen well more activity this year, although still significantly below average for a near maximum. But saying that we're running "extremely warm" this year seems like an exaggeration when UAH had three negative months, ones which aren't that common in a world that's supposed to be warming like .25C/decade.

[skierinvermont]

But if you look at the maps posted above, the El Niño did make a bigger impact this year. Both years have warm waters in the eastern regions near Peru, which is common upon the dissipation of a cold ENSO event, but 2011 has both warmer waters there as well as better extension westward of the warmth. The warmth near the South American coast is both more exaggerated this year, and has more of an impact on the western regions which warmed quickly this spring. Obviously, though, "ENSO" is a disparate phenomenon since the oceans are all connected...and yes, I'd agree that the California Current and Humboldt/Antarctic Current are more pronounced this year than in 2008. As long as that mammoth 1028mb high pressure is anchored offshore the Pacific Coast, too, the PDO will stay very negative with strong northerly flow along the West Coast. OT, but this should also make the threat for Sonoran heat waves continuous with the pattern favoring a cold West/Northwest.

I think ENSO is probably a small part of the picture. The previous Niño and the warm AMO have obviously warmed the LT some as well, as has the cold stratosphere. Those are probably the main factors. We can also include the fact that 2008 came at the heart of the solar minimum in Cycle 24 with long periods of no sunspots, whereas we've seen well more activity this year, although still significantly below average for a near maximum. But saying that we're running "extremely warm" this year seems like an exaggeration when UAH had three negative months, ones which aren't that common in a world that's supposed to be warming like .25C/decade.

I didn't say extremely warm ... I said surprisingly warm. Which it clearly is, given everybody guessed too cold and ENSO evolved just about as expected and as normal following a mod/strong Nina.

We all knew what the ONI had been in 2010, and we all knew what it likely would be approximately over the relevant portion of 2011 (and there has been no big surprises thus far). So to turn around and blame our guessing .2-.4C too cold on ENSO is just obtuse. Perhaps if we actually had gone into a mod or strong Nino by summer... then we could talk as this would be having some effect by fall. But the ENSO evolution to date has been very typical and very similar to 2008. For the most part ENSO has actually been stronger than 2008. The fact that it has been ever so slightly weaker the past 3 months is hardly relevant given the 6 month lag. Even if there weren't a 6 month lag, the difference is too small to contribute much warming at all (maybe .01-.02C... and that's IF there weren't a 6 month lag). The difference in the ONI could be a whopping 1C and it would still not account for how much warmer 2011 has been than 2008.

[nzucker]

I didn't say extremely warm ... I said surprisingly warm. Which it clearly is, given everybody guessed too cold and ENSO evolved just about as expected and as normal following a mod/strong Nina.

We all knew what the ONI had been in 2010, and we all knew what it likely would be approximately over the relevant portion of 2011 (and there has been no big surprises thus far). So to turn around and blame our guessing .2-.4C too cold on ENSO is just obtuse. Perhaps if we actually had gone into a mod or strong Nino by summer... then we could talk as this would be having some effect by fall. But the ENSO evolution to date has been very typical and very similar to 2008. For the most part ENSO has actually been stronger than 2008. The fact that it has been ever so slightly weaker the past 3 months is hardly relevant given the 6 month lag. Even if there weren't a 6 month lag, the difference is too small to contribute much warming at all (maybe .01-.02C... and that's IF there weren't a 6 month lag). The difference in the ONI could be a whopping 1C and it would still not account for how much warmer 2011 has been than 2008.

When I made my guess, I thought we'd follow the colder multi-year cold ENSO events like 1954-57 and not see so much recovery.

I think the solar/TSI is a factor we may have underevaluated...we're near peak which means we should be like .15C from the bottom in 2008.

[BethesdaWX]

There is a 6 month lag to ENSO.. subsurface waters have absolutely no affect on current tropospheric temperatures. There probably won't be a single trimonthly on the ONI which goes above zero. We have paralleled 2008 in the ONI almost exactly. And yet we have been much warmer.

So this idea that some how the ONI is why we are warmer than 2008

1) there ONI is not and has not been significantly higher than 2008. Initially it was .1-.2C colder, now it is .1-.2C warmer. This is nothing.

2) ONI was warmer than 2008 (which it isn't), there is a 6 month lag to tropospheric temperatures

But who needs facts when we can just pretend that 2011 is warmer than 2008 because "we nearly went into a Nino." ENSO has been nearly exactly the same as 2008 for the past 9 months. But who needs facts?

No one said anything about the subsurface. Did you see my earlier post comparing Surface SST's? It is the obvious reason why we're not as cold as 2008.

its so fookin obvious dude

Mid FEB 2011 vs 2008

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Mid MAR 2011 vs 2008:

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Mid April 2011 vs 2008:

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Mid May 2011 vs 2008:

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Mid June 2011 vs 2008:

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So as you can see, 2008 was overall a colder year...La Nina had a much more potent signal GLOBALLY in 2008 than it has this yr, overall.

[skierinvermont]

I think the solar/TSI is a factor we may have underevaluated...we're near peak which means we should be like .15C from the bottom in 2008.

No it doesn't.. TSI is much lower than a normal peak and so the amount of warming will be much less.

You're still stuck on this notion that the atmosphere magically knows that humans have declared "THIS IS THE PEAK" and so temperatures will magically rise .15C even though TSI is still quite low. All the correlations and physics relate to TSI. Because the last several cycles were all similar in strength it could easily be stated that it was .15C peak to trough. But given this is a weaker cycle, less warming would be expected.

[skierinvermont]

No one said anything about the subsurface. Did you see my earlier post comparing Surface SST's? It is the obvious reason why we're not as cold as 2008.

So as you can see, 2008 was overall a colder year...La Nina had a much more potent signal GLOBALLY in 2008 than it has this yr, overall.

Yes I know that the Nina in spring 2008 was very slightly stronger than spring 2011. However, the differences you are observing are quite small in the schemes of things. ENSO can vary from +2 to -2... and you are saying that a .2C difference in ENSO is responsible for a huge amount of warming globally? Yes I can see that the Nina was very slightly stronger in spring 2008 than spring 2011.. but this difference is still tiny in the scheme of things.

Global SSTs in 2008 were much colder ... but I do not believe that that is due to the strength of the ENSO event. That could be related to something else entirely, like the PDO, or solar, or something we don't understand... etc.

[WeatherRusty]

Hey guys! How am I doing?

My Guess

GISS = 0.48C

UAH = 0.21C

[BethesdaWX]

Yes I know that the Nina in spring 2008 was very slightly stronger than spring 2011. However, the differences you are observing are quite small in the schemes of things. ENSO can vary from +2 to -2... and you are saying that a .2C difference in ENSO is responsible for a huge amount of warming globally? Yes I can see that the Nina was very slightly stronger in spring 2008 than spring 2011.. but this difference is still tiny in the scheme of things.

Global SSTs in 2008 were much colder ... but I do not believe that that is due to the strength of the ENSO event. That could be related to something else entirely, like the PDO, or solar, or something we don't understand... etc.

Yeah you have a point there. Its probably not the La Nina alone, I definitely think equatorial stratospheric temperatures played a significant role, a much higher tropopause this yr (relatively), and in looking at the ENSO rebound, notice that everything "started early". The La Nina was already 'bookin it' by July 2010, and was gone in a flash come March 2011..

So overall the Global Signal was different this yr, and temperature changes are chaotic and seem to respond differently to different ENSO events/Changes evetytime (just see how late they responded to the past La Nina). Whether or not this yr's rapid temperature fluctuations, (both warm & cool) have anything to due with increased CO2 will probably never be known, but I'm doubtful CO2 played a significant role, and think that changes in the overall signal can account for much of the change.

We'll probably never really know, but I still wouldn't use "shockingly warm" to describe it...Yet. Assuming that we continue to warm after July (doubtful), then "significantly warmer than anticipated" might be OK, but "shockingly warm" probably better describes a Global temp at 2010 levels, given the chaotic response from the Climate system. We'll see I guess, I'm thinking by August that we begin to cool, but next Spring/Summer looks kinda chilly too. Depending on what 2012 does,.. and anything above a High End Weak El Nino seems unlikely in 2012-2013, in my young eyes.

[tacoman25]

I don't care what the maps show.. the numbers don't lie. The ONI was never more than two tenths above 2008. And this is in addition to the fact that the ONI was two tenths colder than 2008 most of last fall and early winter.

Using dramatic words like "crippled" doesn't change the fact that the decline of the 2011 Nina was not significantly different than the decline of the 2008 Nina. You can post maps until you are blue in the face, but the evolution of ENSO over the past 6 months does not explain why we have been so much warmer than 2008. The difference is tiny, and the timing is not correct.

I think it's clear why 2008 was cooler than 2011 has been. OHC has been higher, and probably directly related, we were coming off a very strong Nino. Totally different than the setup leading into 2008.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah you have a point there. Its probably not the La Nina alone, I definitely think equatorial stratospheric temperatures played a significant role, a much higher tropopause this yr (relatively), and in looking at the ENSO rebound, notice that everything "started early". The La Nina was already 'bookin it' by July 2010, and was gone in a flash come March 2011..

So overall the Global Signal was different this yr, and temperature changes are chaotic and seem to respond differently to different ENSO events/Changes evetytime (just see how late they responded to the past La Nina). Whether or not this yr's rapid temperature fluctuations, (both warm & cool) have anything to due with increased CO2 will probably never be known, but I'm doubtful CO2 played a significant role, and think that changes in the overall signal can account for much of the change.

We'll probably never really know, but I still wouldn't use "shockingly warm" to describe it...Yet. Assuming that we continue to warm after July (doubtful), then "significantly warmer than anticipated" might be OK, but "shockingly warm" probably better describes a Global temp at 2010 levels, given the chaotic response from the Climate system. We'll see I guess, I'm thinking by August that we begin to cool, but next Spring/Summer looks kinda chilly too. Depending on what 2012 does,.. and anything above a High End Weak El Nino seems unlikely in 2012-2013, in my young eyes.

I don't think 2010's temperatures were 'shockingly warm' at all.. pretty much exactly what one would expect for a strong Nino at this point. Which is why I predicted both the satellite and surface temps in 2010 almost exactly correct a year in advance (less than .01C error at the surface; .04C satellite).

[skierinvermont]

Hey guys! How am I doing?

My Guess

GISS = 0.48C

UAH = 0.21C

Too cold, at least with GISS. UAH should be close. Pretty much everyone guessed too cold.

[skierinvermont]

I think it's clear why 2008 was cooler than 2011 has been. OHC has been higher, and probably directly related, we were coming off a very strong Nino. Totally different than the setup leading into 2008.

Well first of all, all of this was known at the start of 2011 so it seems a little ad hoc to be saying this explains the warmth at this point after you guessed too cold (-.03C on UAH which will probably end up around .15C too cold). Is this line of reasoning something you only discovered in the past 6 months?

And second of all, are you talking about global OHC or ENSO OHC?

[tacoman25]

Well first of all, all of this was known at the start of 2011 so it seems a little ad hoc to be saying this explains the warmth at this point after you guessed too cold (-.03C on UAH which will probably end up around .15C too cold). Is this line of reasoning something you only discovered in the past 6 months?

And second of all, are you talking about global OHC or ENSO OHC?

I, like everyone else, underestimated the OHC (I'm talking global) difference. Also, I figured that the Nino would prevent as rapid a drop as 2008 (see 1999), but I also didn't think ENSO/OHC would warm as much/quickly in 2011 as it did. 2011 was cooler than 1999 for Jan-Mar, but then 1999 cooled as the Nino effects disappeared and the Nina maintained.

[tacoman25]

Too cold, at least with GISS. UAH should be close. Pretty much everyone guessed too cold.

We aren't even halfway through the year. Too early to make judgements like this. As we all have learned, predicting global temps is not an exact science.

[nzucker]

Too cold, at least with GISS. UAH should be close. Pretty much everyone guessed too cold.

I would say he's warm on UAH, which has only averaged like +.04C so far. With a cold end to the year, getting above .2C will be a mighty challenge. Unless we're talking about the old baseline?

[BethesdaWX]

I don't think 2010's temperatures were 'shockingly warm' at all.. pretty much exactly what one would expect for a strong Nino at this point. Which is why I predicted both the satellite and surface temps in 2010 almost exactly correct a year in advance (less than .01C error at the surface; .04C satellite).

Actually I meant if we were seeing 2010 temps on UAH from JAN to Now despite the La Nina.

Remember there is a 5 month Lag, Global SST's not only were significantly colder, but the equatorial stratosphere, & the La Nina in general, Both favored a colder regime in 2008. That is likely the reason, the climate system is chaotic, so things won't be the same everytime regarding a response in temperature to ENSO.

[skierinvermont]

I would say he's warm on UAH, which has only averaged like +.04C so far. With a cold end to the year, getting above .2C will be a mighty challenge. Unless we're talking about the old baseline?

Yes perhaps a bit too warm on UAH...but I can pretty much guarantee you the second half of the year will average warmer than the first.

[skierinvermont]

We aren't even halfway through the year. Too early to make judgements like this. As we all have learned, predicting global temps is not an exact science.

I predicted both surface and satellite within .01 and .04C respectively 12 months in advance last year... 6 month lead time is much much easier than that. Not only do we know what the temperatures were for the last 6 months but we also have a much much better idea of how ENSO will evolve over the final 6 months of the year.

Given that the first 6 months will average .06C (assuming June comes in at +.2 based on CH5). And the second half of the year will almost certainly fall between .0-.25.. mathematically we know UAH will fall between .03C and .15C for the year.

Unless somehow UAH averages below .00C or above .25C for the final six months.. which I find very unlikely. That's pretty much what I would consider a 95% confidence interval... so between .03C and .15C for the year. Most likely pretty close to .1C.

[nzucker]

Yes perhaps a bit too warm on UAH...but I can pretty much guarantee you the second half of the year will average warmer than the first.

It would be hard not to...we're not in a strong Niña anymore. Also, February and March were pretty chilly by modern standards with -.01C and -.10C. That being said, I think June and July will be easily the warmest months on the satellites with a dramatic drop as the Niña reasserts itself with the cold stratosphere waning a bit. AMSU also shows that SSTs are just barely above 2008 at this point, so we have room for cooling in that regard. Of course, much will depend on ENSO; if we start heading back into a moderate Niña as the CFS shows, then November/December could end the year pretty chilly given the warmer stratospheric signal with a -QBO/solar min. However, I tend to think the ECM plumes are more realistic with a neutral to slightly neutral-negative regime occurring by Winter 11-12. There's certainly some bubbles of cold water appearing in the subsurface, strong trade winds, and a massive -PDO...so a resurgence of the Niña will need to be watched. I still think the winter is probably similar to 08-09 in terms of ENSO but not quite as strong, maybe -0.5C. All this uncertainty makes it hard to know how we'll finish on UAH/RSS.

+.21C seems like an unrealistic guess, however. AMSU Channel 5 has begun to drop again, global SSTs are below the mean on Discover, and we've only averaged .04C so far. In order to verify that guess, UAH would have to average .33C for the remaining 7 months of the year. I doubt we get there....

I predicted both surface and satellite within .01 and .04C respectively 12 months in advance last year... 6 month lead time is much much easier than that. Not only do we know what the temperatures were for the last 6 months but we also have a much much better idea of how ENSO will evolve over the final 6 months of the year.

It's a bit easier to do in a strong Niño. You knew we'd finish a bit below 1998 but not that far. There were fewer uncertainties with ENSO since you knew we'd peak near 1.8C at that point, and it is clear from history that a dip occurs rapidly after a strong Niño, but not rapidly enough to counteract the warm months given the long lag period. I think this has been a harder year to guess...many of us didn't expect El Niño to give us a run for the money, November and December 2010 came in pretty warm on the satellites which may have slanted some warmer, etc.