2011 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

CH5 update

remember the conversion from CH5 to the UAH 1980-2009 baseline averages +.1. The conversion to the RSS 1979-2000 baseline is +.2.

[BethesdaWX]

CH5 update

remember the conversion from CH5 to the UAH 1980-2009 baseline averages +.1. The conversion to the RSS 1979-2000 baseline is +.2.

RSS finished +0.11C in April, UAH at +.12, but RSS has the Older Basline, so really RSS was significantly colder than UAH last month. I'm more inclined to believe UAH as always.

RSS:

UAH

[nzucker]

AMSU Channel 5 spiking now up to average values for this time of year.

[Mencken_Fan]

If it gets any hotter here on the coast of North Carolina, I'm gonna die. Daily record high temps are falling left and right.

We need cooling....and we need it now!

Overnight mail would be appreciated.

[tacoman25]

If it gets any hotter here on the coast of North Carolina, I'm gonna die. Daily record high temps are falling left and right.

We need cooling....and we need it now!

Overnight mail would be appreciated.

Been a far different story in the western 2/3 of the country.

[nzucker]

Been a far different story in the western 2/3 of the country.

La Niña

[Jesse]

No word on global temps for about a week.

I'm assuming they've warmed?

[nzucker]

No word on global temps for about a week.

I'm assuming they've warmed?

AMSU Channel 5 slightly above average...GFS showing .33C global anomaly. So some warming.

[BethesdaWX]

Its an early warming peak after a total phase shift in the stratosphere is trying to occur, and in the mode. I discussed today with several local meteorologists and a Climatologist (un-named), basically where we're at, where we're going, and what to look for. Not going to go into heavy detail, but we had some really nice convo, and I learned quite alot about stratospheric influence on the tropospheric temperature.

I wouldn't be surprised to see UAH peak at near maybe +.25 to +.3 for a few months before falling back down to near avg later on in the Fall. Also beginning to look Less Likely for an El Nino in winter 2012-2013 (2 winters from now). There is a chance we fall into another heavy La Nina as we did in the 1950's. The -PDO tends to coincide with a burst of La Nina activity on its onset as it is in a weaker state for the first 5-10yrs.

But Nevertheless, I expect the flat-lining to slight global cooling since the PDO Flip in Early 2006 (UAH/RSS blend) to Continue. RSS added a bunch of new satellites, and inproved calibration,in its latest upgrade so combining UAH/RSS gives an In-Between result that may be best.

But really, lately, the only part of the globe that has been warming this decade has been the Arctic. If you remove the Arctic, there is a distinct cooling trend on the Satellites.

EDIT:

UAH May 2011 anomaly is out, No Change from April. The Tropics Warmed as La Nina Faded, although its still below avg down there, the NH Cooled, but is still above avg.

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372

2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348

2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 4 0.117 0.195 0.039 -0.229

2011 5 0.131 0.143 0.120 -0.044

SST's also updated

[nzucker]

I'm surprised to hear the NH cooled down on UAH, as the GFS intialization maps showed it pretty warm in the second half of May.

I think June is going to come in warmer as the GFS maps have increased to +.33C global anomaly with large areas of above normal temperatures in the NH.

[BethesdaWX]

I'm surprised to hear the NH cooled down on UAH, as the GFS intialization maps showed it pretty warm in the second half of May.

I think June is going to come in warmer as the GFS maps have increased to +.33C global anomaly with large areas of above normal temperatures in the NH.

Is GFS is surface initialization?

Surface temps will be affected by short term changes in GCC Low Clouds significantly...which would explain the deviation from the Surface to the LT... its the only explanation. I cannot think of any other known explanation for a Warm Surface and a Cooler LT. Clouds could be expected to Vary in Coverage and Shift in Areal Dominance during times of rapid change (ENSO shift/recover), so if GFS is indeed Surface, then it'd make sense.

Regardless, these are the natural fluctuations we'll see when rapidly changing ENSO Phases and QBO, and its very hard to determine what will happen even 5 days from now, let alone 2, 3, 4, weeks, etc. Stratosphere above the ENSO/tropics is chilly, so its obvious an expectation for now to see the early bounce back warming...it likely peaks early too IMO or reaches the maximum value earlier on.

As for the UAH anomaly, You can see the raging -PDO, and the -IPO is also quite dominant-looking. I believe, that when you have those indices Strongly Negative in tandom into June and a La Nina Recovery, any chance of a true El Nino is pretty small, because they are conflicting signals (-PDO and +ENSO). And When the currents in the Oceans shift in each phase, it affects upwelling from ENSO (from what I've been taught at least). It would be nice to see a surbsurface PDO SST's, that may help us solve the mystery of the PDO. But for whatever reason, its been avoided/ignored to this point.

[skierinvermont]

It would be nice if people got in the habit of posting the baseline for the temperature data they are posting. I look at all of them pretty regularly but there are so many I still have a hard time remembering all the different baselines. I imagine casual readers have an even harder time.

The GFS global temperature anomaly from Maue's site uses a 1981-2010 baseline

and AMSU uses something like a 2000-2010 baseline although that is just an estimate considering the +.1C conversion to the UAH 1981-2010 baseline. Although somebody should probably check that.

It's not hard to say "the GFS says +.33C above the 1981-2010 average" instead of "+.33C above average."

[nzucker]

It would be nice if people got in the habit of posting the baseline for the temperature data they are posting. I look at all of them pretty regularly but there are so many I still have a hard time remembering all the different baselines. I imagine casual readers have an even harder time.

The GFS global temperature anomaly from Maue's site uses a 1981-2010 baseline

and AMSU uses something like a 2000-2010 baseline although that is just an estimate considering the +.1C conversion to the UAH 1981-2010 baseline.

It's not hard to say "the GFS says +.33C above the 1981-2010 average" instead of "+.33C above average."

The problem is no one remembers anymore LOL, with all the switches and the fact that the sources can't arrive at a common baseline.

GFS and UAH have similar baselines, however, so if the GFS is .33C, UAH will probably be higher for June than the .13C it had for April. Assuming the LT gets in line with surface gradually.

[skierinvermont]

There is a big spike on AMSU the last few days, but it's weird because the box that highlight's todays temp is still stuck back 3 days ago.

Also, they don't have the "average" option anymore.

[Clifford]

There is a big spike on AMSU the last few days, but it's weird because the box that highlight's todays temp is still stuck back 3 days ago.

Also, they don't have the "average" option anymore.

I assume you mean the CH5.

LT (sea surface) did not have a spike.

As was noted elsewhere they were doing some updates to the system.

What I also noted yesterday was that on June 7, they had published June 8 data, which accounted for a large portion of the spike.

[nzucker]

I assume you mean the CH5.

LT (sea surface) did not have a spike.

As was noted elsewhere they were doing some updates to the system.

What I also noted yesterday was that on June 7, they had published June 8 data, which accounted for a large portion of the spike.

Not sure what's going on...however, SSTs are still below the last two years and in the middle of the pack for 2003-2011. Current chart shows SSTs headed slightly downwards, although that also seems to be climo for this part of the year.

[Clifford]

Not sure what's going on...however, SSTs are still below the last two years and in the middle of the pack for 2003-2011. Current chart shows SSTs headed slightly downwards, although that also seems to be climo for this part of the year.

When you look at the NOAA chart:

http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.6.6.2011.gif

There seems to be a lot of recent South Atlantic cooling.

There is also a very clear cool spot that has recently developed at the equator on the Atlantic, somewhat reminiscent of a La Niña pattern in the Pacific, but apparently historically not as long duration.

I'm actually surprised that with all the cool areas on the map that the overall temperatures aren't cooler, but there are some very hot areas around Europe, the Mediterranean, and all the enclosed seas in Europe and western Asia.

[skierinvermont]

There is a big spike on AMSU the last few days, but it's weird because the box that highlight's todays temp is still stuck back 3 days ago.

Also, they don't have the "average" option anymore.

I assume you mean the CH5.

LT (sea surface) did not have a spike.

As was noted elsewhere they were doing some updates to the system.

http://www.americanw...cept-channel-5/

What I also noted yesterday was that on June 7, they had published June 8 data, which accounted for a large portion of the spike.

it seems that the spike was in fact real as everything appears normal on the chart now and we are almost as warm as the 1 year ago temperatures in the middle of a strong Nino. They've gotten rid of the "average" option but I'd guess we're about .25C above the AMSU base, and .35C above the UAH base... despite being in the middle of a lag period to a strong La Nina event.

This year is going to surpass everybody (including my own) expectations for warmth.

[BethesdaWX]

it seems that the spike was in fact real as everything appears normal on the chart now and we are almost as warm as the 1 year ago temperatures in the middle of a strong Nino. They've gotten rid of the "average" option but I'd guess we're about .25C above the AMSU base, and .35C above the UAH base... despite being in the middle of a lag period to a strong La Nina event.

This year is going to surpass everybody (including my own) expectations for warmth.

Be careful with these type of statements bro, remember its an unusually early warming peak via ENSO rebound & stratospheric influence (regime change)....a Cold Stratosphere over equatorial regions (as has been seen since April) immedately favors warmth over the Equator and a +ENSO push, and that has been the case. We'd also see a spike in global temps, as we have. But the Spike is at its peak now........................the Equatorial Stratosphere is beginning to warm a bit, there is obviously no WWB to enhance El Nino regime to take hold, so the ENSO should begin to cool right about now, and regardless of SST trends we've seen in the past, the temperature spike was fueled by the regime change in the atmosphere more-so than anything else (SST's).

As for the Spike, They removed it for a time, Then Put it Back, Then Removed it Again, then Put it Back again...LOL But it didn't reflect in May 2011 which had no change from April on Both UAH and RSS. Depending on what the 2nd have of June does, it could come in warmer or cooler than May.

The next month or so is likely the warmest we'll get with this spike before we begin dropping again, unless something changes in the current progression.

RSS

UAH:

Again there is word that UAH in its update will be adjusted down as RSS has been, RSS had been coming in too warm, and my Neighbor (who is involved in this field), heard that UAH may be adjsted down as well. We'll see.

[OHSnow]

it seems that the spike was in fact real as everything appears normal on the chart now and we are almost as warm as the 1 year ago temperatures in the middle of a strong Nino. They've gotten rid of the "average" option but I'd guess we're about .25C above the AMSU base, and .35C above the UAH base... despite being in the middle of a lag period to a strong La Nina event.

This year is going to surpass everybody (including my own) expectations for warmth.

Yeah, you can also get the text version of the data to get the actual daily global mean temp at 14,000 feet / 600 mb to compare to other years. Here are the numbers for June 11 since 2003 when the data is first available. Looks like this year is now about .1 degree cooler than last, and warmer than all others. I assume these are in Kelvin.

2010 253.855

2011 253.744

2005 253.699

2003 253.539

2007 253.529

2006 253.507

2004 253.498

2008 253.480

2009 253.384

[nzucker]

it seems that the spike was in fact real as everything appears normal on the chart now and we are almost as warm as the 1 year ago temperatures in the middle of a strong Nino. They've gotten rid of the "average" option but I'd guess we're about .25C above the AMSU base, and .35C above the UAH base... despite being in the middle of a lag period to a strong La Nina event.

This year is going to surpass everybody (including my own) expectations for warmth.

AMSU is still showing"no message today" so I'm assuming they're still working on the website. I'm going to wait until they sort this transition out to see what the temps look like.

In other news, major cooling in SSTs in the PDO region...take a look at this.

Last week:

Now:

AMSU shows SSTs right in the middle of the pack and headed downwards, also looks as if the ENSO warmth is slowing down. So I bet this is a pretty cool year overall and that the spike, if it exists, which won't be determined until the month's end, is temporary.

[Jesse]

it seems that the spike was in fact real as everything appears normal on the chart now and we are almost as warm as the 1 year ago temperatures in the middle of a strong Nino. They've gotten rid of the "average" option but I'd guess we're about .25C above the AMSU base, and .35C above the UAH base... despite being in the middle of a lag period to a strong La Nina event.

This year is going to surpass everybody (including my own) expectations for warmth.

Cross your fingers!! God this is exciting!

[Jesse]

AMSU is still showing"no message today" so I'm assuming they're still working on the website. I'm going to wait until they sort this transition out to see what the temps look like.

In other news, major cooling in SSTs in the PDO region...take a look at this.

Last week:

Now:

AMSU shows SSTs right in the middle of the pack and headed downwards, also looks as if the ENSO warmth is slowing down. So I bet this is a pretty cool year overall and that the spike, if it exists, which won't be determined until the month's end, is temporary.

Agreed. The CFS is forecastig ENSO to peak right about now before dropping back into negative territory by the Fall. So anyone hoping against hope for an incredibly warm year may be disappointed.

[Clifford]

Agreed. The CFS is forecastig ENSO to peak right about now before dropping back into negative territory by the Fall. So anyone hoping against hope for an incredibly warm year may be disappointed.

I've been calling for that for months now.

While the equator is looking very warm now, transitions to El Niño currents seem to involve almost a simultaneous dissociation of the cold "arrow" that is typical of La Niña currents. We just aren't seeing that dissociation of the La Niña.

However, second year La Niña currents are often more moderate than the first year currents, but not always. There are many examples of very strong 2^nd, and even 3^rd year La Niña currents. I think we're seeing some global cooling of the oceans everywhere except at the equator which could indicate a very cold future winter La Niña anomaly.

[skierinvermont]

AMSU shows SSTs right in the middle of the pack and headed downwards, also looks as if the ENSO warmth is slowing down. So I bet this is a pretty cool year overall and that the spike, if it exists, which won't be determined until the month's end, is temporary.

I'm not basing it on this spike but rather the warmth of the last two months (+.13C on UAH) despite being right at a 4-5 month lag time from the peak Nina conditions. Much much warmer than 1999 2000 or 2008 at this point, even though the ONI trimonthlies have followed 1999 and 2008 almost to a tee to this point.

[skierinvermont]

Cross your fingers!! God this is exciting!

Why are you rooting for global warming?

[Jesse]

Why are you rooting for global warming?

That's what I'm wondering.

[skierinvermont]

That's what I'm wondering.

You don't know why you are rooting for global warming?

[matthewweatherwatcher]

You don't know why you are rooting for global warming?

If it where true it would be very exciting just like a hurricane or tornado outbreak.

[Jesse]

You don't know why you are rooting for global warming?

No, I'm trying to figure out why you are.

I'm rooting for it because it's awesome, and it would prove my stubborn scientific ideology right, and it would be thus be VERY validating, and my college professors told me so, and it would be like living in the movie Armageddon, The Day After Tomorrow and Waterworld all rolled into one and directed by Quentin Tarantino AND Steven Spielberg!