2011 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

AMSU ch5 temps went above average as of April 8th.. looks like April is going to be warmer than we thought. Maybe between -.05 and +.05 (I guessed -.05 to 0 before)

CH5 looks to average -.1 for the month which normally would put us right at 0.0 on UAH.

[BethesdaWX]

CH5 looks to average -.1 for the month which normally would put us right at 0.0 on UAH.

Where do you think the trend is going then? I was going with +/- 0.05C from the start, so I think I nailed this one good too.

I'd lean on the warmer side at this point tho for APR, although there are some signs for another Dip in May, I'll explain my thinking on that later.

[skierinvermont]

Where do you think the trend is going then? I was going with +/- 0.05C from the start, so I think I nailed this one good too.

I'd lean on the warmer side at this point tho for APR, although there are some signs for another Dip in May, I'll explain my thinking on that later.

Yeah except you also guessed -.05 to -.2. Make enough guesses and you will be bound to be right on one of them.

[BethesdaWX]

Yeah except you also guessed -.05 to -.2. Make enough guesses and you will be bound to be right on one of them.

Nope

I said at the time I'd revise my guess if I could, but it wasn't my "guess". My first Guess is my Guess.

Your brain is like one Giant Computer Glitch

[skierinvermont]

Nope

I said at the time I'd revise my guess if I could, but it wasn't my "guess". My first Guess is my Guess.

Your brain is like one Giant Computer Glitch

Semantics.

It was still a terrible idea to even think of revising it that cold.

[BethesdaWX]

Semantics.

It was still a terrible idea to even think of revising it that cold.

My way of thinking did not figure the developing -NAO/-AO as a response to a Low level warming in the stratosphere..... (lol talk about stupidity on my part) into the equation, otherwise It would have made more sense.

The Easterly Shear zone in the QBO is dropping down fast, and a brunt of the SW was actually lower in the stratosphere (Temperature anomaly), so the -AO will raise the global temperature anomaly, (slows the Jet)

[BethesdaWX]

The +AMO at this strength will definitely Impact the overall Gloabal Anom at the Surface.

It can be seen on Ryan Maue's site actually, the Fueling into the Arctic & Over Europe, Africa, & Russia.

[nzucker]

The +AMO at this strength will definitely Impact the overall Gloabal Anom at the Surface.

It can be seen on Ryan Maue's site actually, the Fueling into the Arctic & Over Europe, Africa, & Russia.

GFS shows an average anomaly of .18C in the next week:

[BethesdaWX]

All thanks to that -AO ridge over russia.

But you can see what the -PDO does to N america, to an extent, although there is more to that Cold airmass besides the -PDO

The AMO effect can be seen too, except AMO is higher lattitude, and you have the alteration in the WX patterns.

[skierinvermont]

I just realized that Eastern is back up which enabled me to go back and find Bethesda's claim that the sea ice max has increased every year since the PDO went negative (which he says he never said and that I am lying about). His statement below is completely false... ice extent has been at near-record low levels consistently since June 2010. This winter's extent was the lowest on record.

Each Year since 2007 has had more ice area than the other during the Peak Ice Season.......... Both 2009 and 2010 have reached Above Normal Ice Extent at some point... This winter will ne the 4th consecutive year with a higher ice extent and area.....all this since the PDO went cold in 2007

I also came across several other terrible but classic skeptic predictions such as:

Just watch what happens to Arctic temperatures in the next year as the strong La Niña takes hold, the solar minimum starts to have more of an effect, and a neutral/slightly +NAO makes the N Atlantic stormy and eliminates some of those warm SSTs near Greenland. This will be the biggest change in global climate since the Pinatubo eruption in the early 90s.

Arctic temperatures remain at near record high levels on both UAH and GISS. We're on pace for the second warmest year in the arctic ever on both UAH and GISS. Thus far global temperatures were much lower in Jan-March 2008 than Jan-March 2011.

Also this one:

We're starting the long term recovery now probably, this winter should see the arctic ice maintain above normal extent/area etc for a month or two unless the wind becomes unfavorable and flushes/compacts the ice. We probably won't see the ice, in the long run, get back to average for another 7-10 years.

Arctic sea ice extent was the record lowest ever this winter. It never came remotely close to being above average, as Bethesda predicted it would.

There's also zucker's original prediction that UAH would come in at -.2C in 2011, and his updated prediction of -.1C. Both of which are on pace to fail badly considering we have run much warmer than 2008 for JFMA, and 2008 only came in at -.04. If the relationship holds, we'll come in around +.02C for the year.

The reason the above 4 predictions failed so wildly (and by wildly I mean they could not be farther from the truth) is that they are not grounded in a firm understanding of reality. They are based in fantasy land, as opposed to physics, weather or climate science. I don't know how many times one can make embarrassingly poor predictions before one realizes the methodology is wrong. I hope the above posters take some time for self reflection to consider why the above predictions have not even been remotely correct.

It's sort of like how consistently the large majority of the board underpredicts global temperatures.

[Clifford]

Arctic sea ice extent was the record lowest ever this winter. It never came remotely close to being above average, as Bethesda said it would.

You need to qualify that.

Arctic Sea Ice was the lowest in December & January.

Since then it has been 2nd or 3rd from the lowest for the most recent decade.

It did peak early, but made up for it with a flat month of March.

And, now the sea ice extent is clearly average for the most recent decade, maintaining the median value for the last few weeks.

The Fowler Model is showing a moderate increase in ice age over the last 2 years.

The PIPS model seems to be showing a significant thickening of the ice along Northern Canada and Greenland, with a 2+ meter thick ice sheet for most of the Central Arctic Region.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah I was just going to post the increased ice age in the arctic sea ice thread. That is good news.

As for extent, overall this winter it was still record lowest. The spring will be a bit better but still far below the 30-year average.

[skierinvermont]

There's also the 2010 temps thread to verify. Actual GISS/Had and UAH/RSS temperatures came in at .554 and .496 respectively (using old satellite baseline).

I guessed .56 for the surface and .46 for the satellites.

Only 23 of 101 votes guessed above .51 for the surface. The other 78 were too low by .05 or more. The large majority were too low by .1C+ and 42 people guess below .38 (actual .55).

For the satellites people's guesses were biased even more too cold with 47 people guessing below .13 (vs actual of .50).

Other prominent guesses were (remember actual was .554 and .496)

Mallow .54/.38

MN .54/~.4

tacoman: .54/.38

Rusty: >.56/?

all pretty good but people had a tendency too guess too low on the satellites. Have to remember the ENSO effect is bigger on the satellites and 09-10 was the strongest Nino since 97-98.

too bad the poll wasn't public so we could see who guessed all the really low numbers. I have my guesses of course. Overall it seemed few people anticipated how warm 2010 would be.

[BethesdaWX]

There's also the 2010 temps thread to verify. Actual GISS/Had and UAH/RSS temperatures came in at .554 and .496 respectively (using old satellite baseline).

I guessed .56 for the surface and .46 for the satellites.

Only 23 of 101 votes guessed above .51 for the surface. The other 78 were too low by .05 or more. The large majority were too low by .1C+ and 42 people guess below .38 (actual .55).

For the satellites people's guesses were biased even more too cold with 47 people guessing below .13 (vs actual of .50).

Other prominent guesses were (remember actual was .554 and .496)

Mallow .54/.38

MN .54/~.4

tacoman: .54/.38

Rusty: >.56/?

all pretty good but people had a tendency too guess too low on the satellites. Have to remember the ENSO effect is bigger on the satellites and 09-10 was the strongest Nino since 97-98.

too bad the poll wasn't public so we could see who guessed all the really low numbers. I have my guesses of course. Overall it seemed few people anticipated how warm 2010 would be.

Do you have the Guesses?

I'm pretty sure I didn't guess that low for 2010, but I had assumed a larger drop in the Fall & NOV and DEC definitely.

[BethesdaWX]

Yeah I was just going to post the increased ice age in the arctic sea ice thread. That is good news.

As for extent, overall this winter it was still record lowest. The spring will be a bit better but still far below the 30-year average.

Don't Use DJF, use FMA for ice extent, since thats the "Peak".

You'll find that FMA are near/above the decadal avg in the past 2 yrs, NORSEX is near average right now.

I stick with my thoughts of us touching the AVG line somewhere on the way down,maybe going above. We're likely to see a Period of Rapid Melting when the Ice near Greenland melts away, but after that the number should stabilize and flatline in a sense, early on, and approach avg.

[skierinvermont]

Do you have the Guesses?

I'm pretty sure I didn't guess that low for 2010, but I had assumed a larger drop in the Fall & NOV and DEC definitely.

No, because it wasn't public we can't see who guessed what and you didn't post a guess publicly. I listed all the guesses of people who posted publicly.

[skierinvermont]

Don't Use DJF, use FMA for ice extent, since thats the "Peak".

Regardless, FMA will be much lower than last year. Directly contradicting your statement that the peak would be higher this winter than last.

[BethesdaWX]

Regardless, FMA will be much lower than last year. Directly contradicting your statement that the peak would be higher this winter than last.

I never said that, get your brain checked. I said the peak mean peak ANOMALY has increased relative to avg since the PDO went cold, and will do it again this yr.

Later on, when the AMO goes cold, the ice Pack will Increase greatly based on past history in the 1950's.

[skierinvermont]

I never said that, get your brain checked. I said the peak mean peak ANOMALY has increased relative to avg since the PDO went cold, and will do it again this yr.

Later on, when the AMO goes cold, the ice Pack will Increase greatly based on past history in the 1950's.

Which it hasn't. The "peak mean peak anomaly" has been consistently lower this year than last year and we have been near or below record low levels since June 2010. The prediction was wildly inaccurate.

[BethesdaWX]

Which it hasn't. The "peak mean peak anomaly" has been consistently lower this year than last year and we have been near or below record low levels since June 2010. The prediction was wildly inaccurate.

LOL dude

The peak Anomaly Relative to average, not the the most Ice. ok?

Look at NSIDC, NORSEX, etc. My statement has nothing to due with the winter peak extent, but the greatest anomaly relative to avg.

[skierinvermont]

LOL dude

The peak Anomaly Relative to average, not th the most Ice. ok?

Look at NSIDC, NORSEX, etc.

Yes I understand what you are attempting to say. The peak anomaly this year is far below that of last year. We have been near or below record low levels since June.

[BethesdaWX]

Yes I understand what you are attempting to say. The peak anomaly this year is far below that of last year.

Yes... during the PEAK ICE Season.

NOT during the Melt Season. I think we go up near avg on the way down this Yr, and Again on the Way Up.

One or the Other will do fine.

[skierinvermont]

Yes... during the PEAK ICE Season.

NOT during the Melt Season. I think we go up near avg on the way down this Yr, and Again on the Way Up.

One or the Other will do fine.

LOL .. bookmarked.

The peak anomaly always occurs around April because that is when the long-term decline has been slowest. The peak anomaly this year will be much lower than last year as seen here:

[BethesdaWX]

Ok, I'm going to Clarify what I meant to you. Its not Like I'm going to Lie, my thoughts are the exact same, and have not Changed.

The Ice Anomaly, relative to Average, will be higher overall this Year (2011) Than 2010, and the Peak Anomaly Spike will go above 2010 at some point.

Understand? Save this Quote, you'll need it.

[skierinvermont]

Ok, I'm going to Clarify what I meant to you. Its not Like I'm going to Lie, my thoughts are the exact same, and have not Changed.

The Ice Anomaly, relative to Average, will be higher overall this Year (2011) Than 2010, and the Peak Anomaly Spike will go above 2010 at some point.

Understand? Save this Quote, you'll need it.

Yes.. and the peak anomaly almost always occurs sometime around April (you can see the biggest spike in the anomaly all of the past 4 years has been around April).

So your prediction has already busted.

[BethesdaWX]

Yes.. and the peak anomaly almost always occurs sometime around April (you can see the biggest spike in the anomaly all of the past 4 years has been around April).

So your prediction has already busted. The anomaly is going to start increasing now.

Dude, your graph is the anomaly relative to AVG, not the Peak Ice Amount. You're telling me the Minima in the 1980's was greater than the Maxima today? Holy Crap.

I really hope you are Joking, otherwise your Credibility has Taken a huge hit.

How can you debate AGW if you don't even know how to read a simple graph?

[nzucker]

Arctic temperatures remain at near record high levels on both UAH and GISS. We're on pace for the second warmest year in the arctic ever on both UAH and GISS. Thus far global temperatures were much lower in Jan-March 2008 than Jan-March 2011.

Arctic sea ice extent was the record lowest ever this winter. It never came remotely close to being above average, as Bethesda predicted it would.

There's also zucker's original prediction that UAH would come in at -.2C in 2011, and his updated prediction of -.1C. Both of which are on pace to fail badly considering we have run much warmer than 2008 for JFMA, and 2008 only came in at -.04. If the relationship holds, we'll come in around +.02C for the year.

The reason the above 4 predictions failed so wildly (and by wildly I mean they could not be farther from the truth) is that they are not grounded in a firm understanding of reality. They are based in fantasy land, as opposed to physics, weather or climate science. I don't know how many times one can make embarrassingly poor predictions before one realizes the methodology is wrong. I hope the above posters take some time for self reflection to consider why the above predictions have not even been remotely correct.

It's sort of like how consistently the large majority of the board underpredicts global temperatures.

Once again, most of this has nothing to do with 2011 global temperature discussion; you're again trying to make yourself feel better by falsifying others' predictions. Whether Bethesda guessed the sea ice anomaly correctly is irrelevant to the topic of this thread. You're just going on again with your "smarty had a party."

Also, in terms of predictions about the arctic, remember the time frame in which the predictions were made. Everyone was expecting a +NAO/+AO winter which would have led the Arctic to be colder, but of course the opposite happened against Niña climo, and we had stout high-latitude blocking for most of the season. Also, the North American Arctic is seeing an unprecedented cold spell, and I don't ever recalling seeing so much cold air in Canada this late in the season:

Overall, the arctic isn't running that warm now, pretty good balance of cold anomalies on the North American side and warm anomalies on the Eurasian side, except some parts of Central Siberia which are below average...the yearly anomaly will cool down from now on with the +NAO/+AO pattern being dominant. I'm sure a lot of the warmth you're citing comes from the huge block we had for a lot of January:

The idea of a recovery in arctic sea ice, whether Bethesda nailed the specifics or not, has been true...we're running pretty well now on JAXA and starting to cross a lot of the older years:

NORSEX shows us within one SD of normal:

So maybe Bethesda got a little amplified with his predictions, but the idea of a slight recovery in the Arctic with more multi-year ice and a slowdown of the warm season melt was generally correct. The Niña may be the factor that's turning things around, finally getting the extreme block out of the Arctic, as I suspected. Having a more +NAO/+AO second half of the winter really firmed up the ice pack, and that was what I was getting at when I said we'd see better conditions in the Arctic. Let's see where yearly temperatures go from here...declaring someone wrong for a yearly temperature prediction in mid-April seems, well, premature.

Also, remember the predictions about global temps came when many thought the La Niña would take us into very strong territory, not just borderline strong. You even had HM said this one might be going to 73-74 levels in Nov/Dec, so you have to expect the globe to be warmer when the cold ENSO signal ends up being warmer than expected. I think overall, the predictions of cold global temperatures haven't been bad....actually looking relative to ENSO/AMO versus 2008, we're running colder. SSTs were much lower in 2008, yet temperatures haven't been far off, especially for March. That makes me think that this regime of high snow cover/better arctic ice may be having its effects too.

[BethesdaWX]

Its the fact that he took my prediction out of Context, and the Fact that he Cannot even read the NSIDC Graph correctly.

did you read his above Quote?

[BethesdaWX]

^^^^^

Simply a Stunning Lack of Brain Power on Skier's Part.

Dude, your graph is the anomaly relative to AVG, not the Peak Ice Amount. You're telling me the Minima in the 1980's was greater than the Maxima today? Holy Crap.

I really hope you are Joking, otherwise your Credibility has Taken a huge hit.

How can you debate AGW if you don't even know how to read a simple graph?

Of course he is too scared to admit it probably.

[skierinvermont]

^^^^^

Simply a Stunning Lack of Brain Power on Skier's Part.

Of course he is too scared to admit it probably.

You said the "peak ice peak anomaly." Your words not mine. The graph I gave was of anomalies because that is what I thought you wanted and it's the same graph you quoted in the post in which you made the prediction.

You said quite clearly that every since the PDO went negative the ice has improved. There is not a single metric or way to construe this as true given we have spent the last 12 months near or below record low values.

Since May ice extent has been consistently below the 1-yr ago value. It is logically impossible given this fact for you to construe in any way an improvement in ice over the last year.