2011 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

There's a 5-6 month lag to the ONI overall, but the lag between the ONI minimum and the TLT minimum is usually much less.

I think global SSTs also lag the ONI, so the lag between global SSTs and TLT would be smaller.

2007, 1998, 1988, and 1983 all bottomed out between Jan and March.

2007 and 1988 rebounded strongly, while 1998 and 1983 rebounded slightly but then set new lows late in the year probably related to a strengthening Nina. 1983 is also a very bad comparison because it went from Nino to weak Nina to moderate Nina, unlike this year. I believe 1988 and 2007 are the best analogs:

Excellent chart. However, in terms of ONI we were closest to the 87 Nino, not 98 or 83 which were super-Ninos of a different breed altogether.

It does seem like the two stronger Ninos (98, 83) took longer to cool off in temperature. This is probably related to the fact that the ONI remained above .5 until MJJ in '83, and AMJ in '98. By comparison, in 2010 the last period of >.5 ONI was MAM. So this Nino subsided 1-2 months earlier than '98 or '83. It is however, a later end than '88 or '07 which ended 2 months earlier than the 2010 Nino.

So in terms of when the Nino faded and in terms of strength, this Nino was about halfway between the two super-Ninos ('98 '83) and the moderate/strong Ninos ('88 '07). So from that perspective somewhere between the two scenarios seems likely.

In terms of when the Nina peaked though, this year was quite early, having already reached its maximum trimonthly value by SON. This is 1-3 months early than any of the other 4 Ninas on your chart.

'83-84 is also a bad comparison because it initially only went into a weak Nina, which then strengthened to a moderate Nina the next year. I'd probably throw out '83-84 entirely because it was a Nino-weak Nina-moderate Nina progression, which is quite different from ours.

07 and 88 had essentially bottomed by January. 98 was also mostly bottomed out although it did have one more significant decline at the end of the year. Based on this, the in-between Nino end date, and the fact that our current Nina peaked 1-3 months before any of the other 4, I would have expected UAH temps to bottom by January.

[BethesdaWX]

There's a 5-6 month lag to the ONI overall, but the lag between the ONI minimum and the TLT minimum is usually much less.

I think global SSTs also lag the ONI, so the lag between global SSTs and TLT would be smaller.

2008, 1999, 1988, and 1983 all bottomed out between Jan and March.

2008 and 1988 rebounded strongly, while 1998 and 1983 rebounded slightly but then set new lows late in the year probably related to a strengthening Nina. 1983 is also a very bad comparison because it went from Nino to weak Nina to moderate Nina, unlike this year. I believe 1988 and 2008 are the best analogs:

So then what is the Lag for Global SST's to TLT, or LT in general? Maybe My memory is Botched in regards to the 5 month lag.

If its a shorter Lag, then I'm even more astounded that we're back below 2008, or even comparable.

[tacoman25]

Here's the CH5 anomalies, which I think is a little easier to look at than trying to compare the raw to the average. Definitely have dropped a little more than I was expecting, I would have thought based on climo we would bottom in Jan/Feb, but March was a little lower. Nothing too shocking yet but if we keep going down that would be a little weird given climo and last years Nina progression.

One thing to keep in mind is that, like 1999, this is a robust Nina quickly following a very strong Nino. Like 1999, I think the initial effect of the Nina was muted/delayed by the prolonged inertia of the Nino. 1999 saw its biggest negative anomalies in the spring/early summer. I'm not saying that is likely to happen this year, but I think the reason we are seeing the greater negative anomalies later is due to similar reasons as 1999.

[skierinvermont]

One thing to keep in mind is that, like 1999, this is a robust Nina quickly following a very strong Nino. Like 1999, I think the initial effect of the Nina was muted/delayed by the prolonged inertia of the Nino. 1999 saw its biggest negative anomalies in the spring/early summer. I'm not saying that is likely to happen this year, but I think the reason we are seeing the greater negative anomalies later is due to similar reasons as 1999.

Well we are halfway between the 1998 and 2007 Ninos in terms of peak strength. And we're closest to the 1987 in peak Nino strength (last year was substantially lower than 98 and 83), and the temps after that event bottomed early. 98 and 83 subsided later than the 09-10 Nino.

[BethesdaWX]

GFS initialized at -0.28C today

The Latter Panels of the GFS (longer range) have been flipping wildly, but bring warmth back into the arctic as the +PNA pops and allows warmth to spill over into the Arctic.

AAO also in a negative mode by then.

[LakeEffectKing]

Can someone explain to me the narrow focus we seem to put on the state of the ENSO phases wrt global temps. vs. the overall global SST anomolies?? To me, this teasing of ENSO, volcanoes, (various other indecies) out of the global temperature graphs, seems to gloss over the broader aspects that certainly are significant in determining the ever elusive "temperature of the Earth".....

I understand that the ENSO is quite a dominate force, but it certainly doesn't completely dictate wholly, that portion of the global temperature equation relative to SST's.

[LakeEffectKing]

Also, anyone have an RSS monthly global temperature data link, that updates fairly quickly?? Should be out by now....or soon. Thanks.

[BethesdaWX]

Well we are halfway between the 1998 and 2007 Ninos in terms of peak strength. And we're closest to the 1987 in peak Nino strength (last year was substantially lower than 98 and 83), and the temps after that event bottomed early. 98 and 83 subsided later than the 09-10 Nino.

Yes our 2011 La Nina Peaked Very Early By standards, and subsided much more quickly than 2008. I believe the ONI was also Colder in the 2008 La Nina.

EMI "El Nino Modoki Index" is somewhat interesting.

[BethesdaWX]

Can someone explain to me the narrow focus we seem to put on the state of the ENSO phases wrt global temps. vs. the overall global SST anomolies?? To me, this teasing of ENSO, volcanoes, (various other indecies) out of the global temperature graphs, seems to gloss over the broader aspects that certainly are significant in determining the ever elusive "temperature of the Earth".....

Agree completely, but its the semantics that have taken over. the "2011 temperature thread" we kinda compare anything we can really.

As for RSS, I'm not sure where to find it, but I'll look.

[Clifford]

Also, anyone have an RSS monthly global temperature data link, that updates fairly quickly?? Should be out by now....or soon. Thanks.

RSS usually update on these pages:

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/

There are graphs around there somewhere too.

I'm not seeing any April dates (March data) yet (although I can't get to any FTP sites at the moment).

UAH usually will post data to:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/

But, I'm not seeing the March data yet either, although apparently there is another site where they also post the data.

[nzucker]

RSS usually update on these pages:

http://www.remss.com...ly_time_series/

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/m...ly_time_series/

There are graphs around there somewhere too.

I'm not seeing any April dates (March data) yet (although I can't get to any FTP sites at the moment).

UAH usually will post data to:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/

But, I'm not seeing the March data yet either, although apparently there is another site where they also post the data.

Yeah I don't think it's out yet, not seeing the MSU site's global maps coming up for March 11 either...

[Clifford]

Can someone explain to me the narrow focus we seem to put on the state of the ENSO phases wrt global temps. vs. the overall global SST anomolies?? To me, this teasing of ENSO, volcanoes, (various other indecies) out of the global temperature graphs, seems to gloss over the broader aspects that certainly are significant in determining the ever elusive "temperature of the Earth".....

I understand that the ENSO is quite a dominate force, but it certainly doesn't completely dictate wholly, that portion of the global temperature equation relative to SST's.

I'm not sure you can, or really should remove the effects of El Niño/La Niña or AO/NAO.

However, they certainly toss around the temperatures, snow, and rainfall patterns around the globe, and thus also make it difficult to follow long-term trends.

On a long-term scale, to some extent they will average out. However, some decades are weighted heavier to one cycle than the other, and thus often bring warmer or cooler temperatures for an extended period.

Yes, there are other influences on Sea Surface Temperatures, yet the impacts, especially in local areas on land of El Niño/La Niña can be quite profound.

[tacoman25]

Well we are halfway between the 1998 and 2007 Ninos in terms of peak strength. And we're closest to the 1987 in peak Nino strength (last year was substantially lower than 98 and 83), and the temps after that event bottomed early. 98 and 83 subsided later than the 09-10 Nino.

Yes, but the 2006-07 Nino peaked early and faded very quickly early in 2007. The 2009-10 Nino had much better duration.

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm not sure you can, or really should remove the effects of El Niño/La Niña or AO/NAO.

However, they certainly toss around the temperatures, snow, and rainfall patterns around the globe, and thus also make it difficult to follow long-term trends.

On a long-term scale, to some extent they will average out. However, some decades are weighted heavier to one cycle than the other, and thus often bring warmer or cooler temperatures for an extended period.

Yes, there are other influences on Sea Surface Temperatures, yet the impacts, especially in local areas on land of El Niño/La Niña can be quite profound.

I understand that, but my point was that no matter what the ENSO phase and it's strength, we still have...what....80% of the world's oceans that operate independent of the ENSO phase, thus if during a mod. El Nino we were to have a decent mean "cooler" anomoly over the rest of the oceans, we'd certainly see the narrow effects that El Nino imparts, cut into (made less "positive") vs. say a scenario where the rest of the global oceans came in with a relative mean warmer anomoly....which of course would add to the El Nino forcing impact...

And vice-veresa...verse-visa for La Nina....

[BethesdaWX]

Latest AMSU update shows a slight rebound in temps, although we're still a hair below 2008.

[Clifford]

I understand that, but my point was that no matter what the ENSO phase and it's strength, we still have...what....80% of the world's oceans that operate independent of the ENSO phase, thus if during a mod. El Nino we were to have a decent mean "cooler" anomoly over the rest of the oceans, we'd certainly see the narrow effects that El Nino imparts, cut into (made less "positive") vs. say a scenario where the rest of the global oceans came in with a relative mean warmer anomoly....which of course would add to the El Nino forcing impact...

And vice-veresa...verse-visa for La Nina....

I'm not sure if you can define 80% of the oceans being independent from El Niño/La Niña.

The cycles certainly drive surface temperatures in the entire Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian Ocean.

There may even be some effects in the Atlantic, Arctic, and Antarctic regions.

It has profound effects on the weather patterns in North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.

[skierinvermont]

I understand that, but my point was that no matter what the ENSO phase and it's strength, we still have...what....80% of the world's oceans that operate independent of the ENSO phase, thus if during a mod. El Nino we were to have a decent mean "cooler" anomoly over the rest of the oceans, we'd certainly see the narrow effects that El Nino imparts, cut into (made less "positive") vs. say a scenario where the rest of the global oceans came in with a relative mean warmer anomoly....which of course would add to the El Nino forcing impact...

And vice-veresa...verse-visa for La Nina....

I think ENSO pretty much drives global SSTs as well... when ENSO goes up a lot of the other oceans warm too and vice versa because +ENSO has such a large warming effect on the atmosphere that heat gets transferred around the globe. ENSO is a major major driver of the whole system.

The actual ENSO region is what 5% of the ocean's surface area? And yet it modulates global SSTs by over .3C.

We can see that in Feb 2010 for example, the rest of the oceans were still warmer than the they are today even excluding ENSO regions.

[BethesdaWX]

I'm not sure if you can define 80% of the oceans being independent from El Niño/La Niña.

The cycles certainly drive surface temperatures in the entire Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian Ocean.

There may even be some effects in the Atlantic, Arctic, and Antarctic regions.

It has profound effects on the weather patterns in North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.

Global Cloud Cover, AO/NAO, PDO/AMO/IOD regions, etc, all need to be considered.

But I'd rather not get into this whole thing again, so I'll just stfu now.

[BethesdaWX]

Certain regions are independant of ENSO, such as AMOs and IOD.

IOD + AMOs equal the power of the PDO when they are both in the same Positive State, as they are now. ENSO not included.

[skierinvermont]

Oh I see, did you figure that out all out by yourself? IOD+AMO=PDO.. who woulda thunk it was that simple?

Also you highlight the S. Atlantic and S. Pacific for the PDO and AMO. The PDO and AMO represent only the north Pacific and north Atlantic respectively. The south pacific and south atlantic have nothing to do with the AMO and PDO and often act independently.

[BethesdaWX]

Oh I see, did you figure that out all out by yourself? IOD+AMO=PDO.. who woulda thunk it was that simple?

Also you highlight the S. Atlantic and S. Pacific for the PDO and AMO. The PDO and AMO represent only the north Pacific and north Atlantic respectively. The south pacific and south atlantic have nothing to do with the AMO and PDO and often act independently.

You don't know about the IPO? Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. It is basically a Southern hemispheric PDO, but Much less understood, but still has the PDO cycle.

The QDO is the Quasi-Decadal Oscillation, (an 8-12 year cycle), affecting whether ENSO events are East vs West based, and thus another impact on Global Temps. AMO has similar sh*t going on the Southern Hemisphere.

Only difference the IPO was still somewhat positive into 2007/08, and never went negative before then.

These are all very important factors, and they all relate to ENSO and How strong a Forcing it can have!

IPO

[skierinvermont]

Yes, I'm quite familiar. The point was none of them correlate to global temps except the PDO. You can't just claim the IOD+AMO=PDO without any evidence.

You also described the AMO and PDO wrong, as they are north pacific and north atlantic phenomena, the south atlantic and south pacific are not included in the calculations and can act independently.

[BethesdaWX]

Yes, I'm quite familiar. The point was none of them correlate to global temps except the PDO. You can't just claim the IOD+AMO=PDO without any evidence.

You also described the AMO and PDO wrong, as they are north pacific and north atlantic phenomena, the south atlantic and south pacific are not included in the calculations and can act independently.

I'm confused on what you're saying.

The IPO does correlate, it has the Same exact phase timing as the PDO. Its not only "Larger" than the PDO, but has a similar impact on ENSO. So in a sense its a PDO in the southern Hemisphere.

The QDO is another major driver, although it is shorter, over 8-12 years, and affects the IPO, so a deeper negative IPO in correlation to QDO will have more impact on global temps in correlation to the QDO & PDO.

[Clifford]

RSS usually update on these pages:

http://www.remss.com...ly_time_series/

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/m...ly_time_series/

There are graphs around there somewhere too.

I'm not seeing any April dates (March data) yet (although I can't get to any FTP sites at the moment).

UAH usually will post data to:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/

But, I'm not seeing the March data yet either, although apparently there is another site where they also post the data.

It looks like RSS data is up now. Links above.

TLT Land & Ocean Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar

Global 0.221 / 0.085 / 0.052 / -0.026

NH 0.230 / 0.041 / -0.011 / 0.058

SH 0.211 / 0.130 / 0.117 / -0.114

Trop -0.224 / -0.299 / - 0.221 / - 0.283

USA -0.852 / -0.791 / -0.555 / 0.073

TLT Land Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar

Global 0.340 / 0.077 / -0.171 / 0.021

NH 0.611 / 0.073 / -0.247 / 0.226

SH 0.069 / 0.590 / -0.119 / -0.127

Trop -0.025 / -0.115 / -0.060 / -0.278

TLT Ocean Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar

Global 0.163 / 0.089 / 0.159 / -0.049

NH 0.305 / 0.376 / 0.416 / 0.198

SH 0.519 / 0.358 / 0.431 / 0.030

Trop -0.307 / -0.375 / -0.288 / -0.285

[BethesdaWX]

[BethesdaWX]

Crazy Massive Spike on AMSU. Continues for another 2-4 days? Tis my guess.

In other news, March 2011 was the coldest globally in 17 years.

[nzucker]

Crazy Massive Spike on AMSU. Continues for another 2-4 days? Tis my guess.

In other news, March 2011 was the coldest globally in 17 years.

SSTs continue to drop off steadily, however, now approaching 2008 levels.

[skierinvermont]

AMSU ch5 temps went above average as of April 8th.. looks like April is going to be warmer than we thought. Maybe between -.05 and +.05 (I guessed -..05 to 0 before)

[tacoman25]

AMSU ch5 temps went above average as of April 8th.. looks like April is going to be warmer than we thought. Maybe between -.05 and +.05 (I guessed -.1 to 0 before)

Less than 1/3 of the way through, way too early to say at this point.

[skierinvermont]

Less than 1/3 of the way through, way too early to say at this point.

You can usually get a decent idea by this point within a range. Heck, you can have a decent idea before the month even starts just based on the previous months and the trend.