2011 Global Temperatures

[BethesdaWX]

In other news, colder SST's flaring up in N1-2. Maybe the La Nina's last gasp? Or will it stick around for a few yrs?

[BethesdaWX]

AMSU has dropped again today after a brief spike, now 0.84C colder than this time last yr.

We can warm a little bit and still end up more than 1C colder than last yr...this time next week. That would be pretty awesome.

[nzucker]

In other news, colder SST's flaring up in N1-2. Maybe the La Nina's last gasp? Or will it stick around for a few yrs?

The La Niña has been getting chewed up a bit with the subsurface warmth, but it might start to solidify with the strong trades over the next week; you can see it still has a strong connection to the Baja California cold pool and cold anomalies in the Southern Ocean towards the Patagonian coast. Also, cold anomalies during spring in the far eastern regions have been a sign in the past of a resurgence of La Niña, so those colder SSTs flaring up might be a signal that we're to see another La Niña in Winter 11-12. Interestingly 2008 SSTs looked very similar at this point but with colder global SSTs overall, so we might see a weak Niña like 08-09 for next winter. The -PDO "horseshoe" configuration in the Pacific has also become very evident. Here was 3/13/2008:

Interesting that global temperatures have been running colder on AMSU despite clearly warmer SSTs.

[okie333]

In other news, colder SST's flaring up in N1-2. Maybe the La Nina's last gasp? Or will it stick around for a few yrs?

Wow look at that Newfoundland cold pool showing up again!

[BethesdaWX]

The La Niña has been getting chewed up a bit with the subsurface warmth, but it might start to solidify with the strong trades over the next week; you can see it still has a strong connection to the Baja California cold pool and cold anomalies in the Southern Ocean towards the Patagonian coast. Also, cold anomalies during spring in the far eastern regions have been a sign in the past of a resurgence of La Niña, so those colder SSTs flaring up might be a signal that we're to see another La Niña in Winter 11-12. Interestingly 2008 SSTs looked very similar at this point but with colder global SSTs overall, so we might see a weak Niña like 08-09 for next winter. The -PDO "horseshoe" configuration in the Pacific has also become very evident. Here was 3/13/2008:

Interesting that global temperatures have been running colder on AMSU despite clearly warmer SSTs.

Notice...that the Southern Hemisphere PDO is Much colder now than it was in 2008....just food for thought on the AMSU issue. Actually, the SH PDO was almost positive in 2008. The NH PDO, however, is warmer this yr, as is the IOD & Global SST's, so who knows. I'd wait another 2 weeks, and if we're still colder than 2008, we'd have some interesting discussions!

[BethesdaWX]

Wow look at that Newfoundland cold pool showing up again!

Yeah what is that?

[skierinvermont]

Well looks like my expectation of a drop in GISS this month was wrong. In retrospect, the modeled drop wasn't as large as expected as the 3rd and 4th weeks never got down to -.6-.8C as modeled. JRA from Maue finished only .05C colder for Feb than Jan, on average. GISS dropped .02C. So there is not too large of a discrepancy there. One would also not expect them to correlate perfectly in the short run, since GISS uses SSTs while JRA does not, and of course the ocean is 70% of the earth's surface.

[skierinvermont]

2008 started March fairly warm compared to the rest of March and the previous month. This year has been the opposite .. it is starting the month with a dip. I am 90% sure we will surpass 2008 in the dailies Ch5 readings by the 13th of the month. It will then be a question of whether the last 2/3s of the month can compensate for the first 10-12 days.

This year was .03C warmer than 2008 by the 13th... we have just surpassed 2008. It's started to tick up on CH5 .. I think there's a good chance it heads up from here given how far below we are the temperatures of the last month or two and given how SSTs have been rising since October. 2008 also heads up moderately from here.

[Clifford]

This year was .03C warmer than 2008 by the 13th... we have just surpassed 2008. It's started to tick up on CH5 .. I think there's a good chance it heads up from here given how far below we are the temperatures of the last month or two and given how SSTs have been rising since October. 2008 also heads up moderately from here.

A pretty moderate uptick in the TMT Ch5. Obviously temperatures will vary somewhat from the extremes.

The question is whether the temperature anomalies will follow the progression in 2008 for a relatively brief La Nina.

Or they will follow 1984/1999 with a longer La Nina... and thus flatter early progression.

While the 2010 El Nino was smaller than the 1983/1998 El Ninos, it also shares similarities of being a powerful, short cycle, which is often followed by longer La Nina cycles.

The recent Solar Flares have caused a drop (likely temporary) in the TSI to the lowest level in a year.

I suppose it would be safe to predict an increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperatures over the next 5 months... and likewise a decrease in Southern Hemisphere Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

A pretty moderate uptick in the TMT Ch5. Obviously temperatures will vary somewhat from the extremes.

The question is whether the temperature anomalies will follow the progression in 2008 for a relatively brief La Nina.

Or they will follow 1984/1999 with a longer La Nina... and thus flatter early progression.Did you s

While the 2010 El Nino was smaller than the 1983/1998 El Ninos, it also shares similarities of being a powerful, short cycle, which is often followed by longer La Nina cycles.

The recent Solar Flares have caused a drop (likely temporary) in the TSI to the lowest level in a year.

I suppose it would be safe to predict an increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperatures over the next 5 months... and likewise a decrease in Southern Hemisphere Temperatures

Did you see my post about how although the Nino progression and magnitude was bettween the 98/83 and the 07/88 scenarios, the progression of the Nina itself has been faster than any of them. We peaked 3 months earlier than 98/83 and still 1-2 months earlier than 07/88. Very early peaking Nina. Global SST anoms rising since October. Considering the 07 and 88 scenarios bottomed out temperature wise by January, and this Nina peaked even earlier than those two scenarios, I highly doubt we decrease significantly over the next couple months. We should already be on the rebound theoretically.

[tacoman25]

Well looks like my expectation of a drop in GISS this month was wrong. In retrospect, the modeled drop wasn't as large as expected as the 3rd and 4th weeks never got down to -.6-.8C as modeled. JRA from Maue finished only .05C colder for Feb than Jan, on average. GISS dropped .02C. So there is not too large of a discrepancy there. One would also not expect them to correlate perfectly in the short run, since GISS uses SSTs while JRA does not, and of course the ocean is 70% of the earth's surface.

And of course, we can't forget the fact that GISS runs warmer than any of the other global temperature sources.

[tacoman25]

Did you see my post about how although the Nino progression and magnitude was bettween the 98/83 and the 07/88 scenarios, the progression of the Nina itself has been faster than any of them. We peaked 3 months earlier than 98/83 and still 1-2 months earlier than 07/88. Very early peaking Nina. Global SST anoms rising since October. Considering the 07 and 88 scenarios bottomed out temperature wise by January, and this Nina peaked even earlier than those two scenarios, I highly doubt we decrease significantly over the next couple months. We should already be on the rebound theoretically.

In the bigger picture, this Nina picture really wasn't much earlier/different than some previous ones. Look at 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1975-76. It's just not as good a match to more recent ones, in terms of when it reached its peak.

Even looking at the peak though, 2010-11 maintained its -1.4 ONI trimonthly peak until NDJ, and then faded slightly to -1.3 for DJF. This is perfectly consistent with most other Ninas, having a peak in late fall/early winter, then fading from there.

As far as satellite temps go, I don't think we will begin to see much of a rebound until June/July. It will be interesting to see Hadley's numbers for February.

[skierinvermont]

And of course, we can't forget the fact that GISS runs warmer than any of the other global temperature sources.

We are talking about relative month to month changes. Unless of course the GISS warm bias (and by bias I do not mean to say that it is incorrect, as it is probably more accurate than any of the other 3) grew rapidly from January to February, then this has nothing to do with the fact that GISS tends to run warmer than Had (mostly due to its largely correct extrapolation of warmth across the arctic).

The relative change in JRA ended up being much smaller than most of us seemed to expect. JRA (computer model reanalysis of temperatures) was only .05C colder in Feb than Jan.

[skierinvermont]

In the bigger picture, this Nina picture really wasn't much earlier/different than some previous ones. Look at 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1975-76. It's just not as good a match to more recent ones, in terms of when it reached its peak.

Even looking at the peak though, 2010-11 maintained its -1.4 ONI trimonthly peak until NDJ, and then faded slightly to -1.3 for DJF. This is perfectly consistent with most other Ninas, having a peak in late fall/early winter, then fading from there.

As far as satellite temps go, I don't think we will begin to see much of a rebound until June/July. It will be interesting to see Hadley's numbers for February.

I was comparing to 83,88,98,07 because those are the four nino to nina transitions which Clifford provided the satellite temperature response for. The 07 and 88 scenarios had bottomed out temperature wise in January following the transition to Nina. Given our ONI and global SST anoms peaked earlier than those two events (and much much earlier than the 83 and 98 events) it is doubtful we see a further decline in temperatures, as was seen in 83 and 98, but not 07 and 88.

Ranked in terms of early peakign it would go 83/98, --> 07/88, -->'10. So I would expect our bottoming out to be most similar, if not earlier than 07 and 88 which had essentially bottomed by January.

[Snow_Miser]

The trend continues to cool in the latest Global Temperature anomalies.

[tacoman25]

I was comparing to 83,88,98,07 because those are the four nino to nina transitions which Clifford provided the satellite temperature response for. The 07 and 88 scenarios had bottomed out temperature wise in January following the transition to Nina. Given our ONI and global SST anoms peaked earlier than those two events (and much much earlier than the 83 and 98 events) it is doubtful we see a further decline in temperatures, as was seen in 83 and 98, but not 07 and 88.

Ranked in terms of early peakign it would go 83/98, --> 07/88, -->'10. So I would expect our bottoming out to be most similar, if not earlier than 07 and 88 which had essentially bottomed by January.

One thing you might want to consider when comparing 2007/1988 is that those Ninos faded much earlier than the 2010 one did. 1988 was already down to .1C ONI by the FMA trimonthly, as was 2007. 2010 was still at 1.2C. So I think there was more leftover warmth from the Nino heading into this fall than there was those years...which could argue for a later bottoming out from this Nina.

I think it's already clear Mar 2011 will be colder than Mar 2008.

[BethesdaWX]

One thing you might want to consider when comparing 2007/1988 is that those Ninos faded much earlier than the 2010 one did. 1988 was already down to .1C ONI by the FMA trimonthly, as was 2007. 2010 was still at 1.2C. So I think there was more leftover warmth from the Nino heading into this fall than there was those years...which could argue for a later bottoming out from this Nina.

Yeah the 2010 El Nino had some Characteristics of many Great El Nino's in the past several decades, and definitely held on hard until the end.

AMSU has experienced a moderate uptick as expected, though the month is almost certain to end up colder than JAN & FEB, as we're near -0.3C on Ch5, and in the time it takes to rebound, assuming it continues, will take too long. We're about 0.86C colder than this time last year right now via AMSU ch5.

UAH final most likely features MAR 2011 as its coldest anom.

[skierinvermont]

One thing you might want to consider when comparing 2007/1988 is that those Ninos faded much earlier than the 2010 one did. 1988 was already down to .1C ONI by the FMA trimonthly, as was 2007. 2010 was still at 1.2C. So I think there was more leftover warmth from the Nino heading into this fall than there was those years...which could argue for a later bottoming out from this Nina.

I think it's already clear Mar 2011 will be colder than Mar 2008.

Yeah I noted that in my original post as well. In terms of the fading (and magnitude) of the Nino, 2010 was between 83/98 and 88/07. But in terms of the peaking of the Nina and global SSTs, it was before all of them. So the Nino fading criteria places it between 83/98 and 88/07 while the Nina peaking criteria puts it earlier than all of them. As a compromise I think a temperature response similar to 88 or 07 is likely. It most certainly will bottom out before 98/83 did because the ENSO progression was earlier in both categories (Nino fading and Nina peaking).

I think it's far from clear than Mar 2011 will be colder than 2008 on either Ch5 or UAH/RSS. In fact, I still lean towards it being warmer. Obviously I've gotten less confident in that given the big dip the last 2 weeks. We're currently only a few hundredths cooler than 2008, and we may make up some of that over the next week, as well as the last 5 days of the month.

If my theory about the CH5 ---> UAH/RSS adjustment being larger in March than Jan or Feb is correct, we may still finish comparable to Jan or Feb 2011 on UAH/RSS.

[nzucker]

I think it's far from clear than Mar 2011 will be colder than 2008 on either Ch5 or UAH/RSS. In fact, I still lean towards it being warmer. Obviously I've gotten less confident in that given the big dip the last 2 weeks.

If my theory about the CH5 ---> UAH/RSS adjustment being larger in March than Jan or Feb is correct, we may still finish comparable to Jan or Feb 2011 on UAH/RSS.

It shouldn't matter what the adjustment is from CH5-->UAH, since 2011 has run colder than 2008 on CH 5 and we're talking about a relative difference.

[skierinvermont]

It shouldn't matter what the adjustment is from CH5-->UAH, since 2011 has run colder than 2008 on CH 5 and we're talking about a relative difference.

Read again.

That's not what I was talking about. That portion of my post concerned comparisons to Jan/Feb 2011.. NOT Mar 2008.

I said if my theory about the conversion was correct, we might finish ahead of Jan/Feb 2011 on UAH/RSS. Even though Ch5 is almost certain to have dropped. That particular portion of my post I was making a comparison to Jan/Feb 2011, not to 2008.

Earlier in the post I was discussing whether we would finish ahead of Mar 2008, and I said that I think it will be close on both CH5 and UAH/RSS, but that I was still leaning towards Mar 2011 being warmer.

In fact, even when making comparisons to 2008 on UAH/RSS it is important to be aware of the conversion. It is always important to be aware of the conversion whenever one is predicting UAH/RSS. 2008 had a particularly large conversion from Ch5 to UAH that month. If that is something that occurs every March (due to the switch from MSU to AMSU) then we can make straightforward relative comparisons. (IE Ch5 is warmer, so UAH/RSS will be warmer). That is what I had hypothesized was the case. As it turns out. that is not the case. The conversion from Ch5 to UAH/RSS is not normally larger in March. 2008 was an exception. I will provide the evidence for this in my next post.

[skierinvermont]

The theory that I and others had discussed concerning the possibility that the conversion from Ch5 to UAH/RSS was larger in March than in Jan or Feb turns out to be incorrect.

For this reason, I am changing my mind and now believe that March 2011 UAH/RSS will finish below Jan and Feb 2011 and probably March 2008 as well. However, I still believe that Ch5 may finish ahead of 2008 for March. (In other words Ch5 may finish warmer than 2008 but UAH/RSS colder than 2008, because 2008 had a particularly large conversion from CH5 to UAH/RSS). I had originally based my prediction off the idea that if CH5 finished warmer, so would UAH/RSS. I no longer believe this is the case.

I finally went ahead and calculated the conversion for each month 2003-2010 from AMSU Ch5 to UAH. The conversion for March is not particularly large.

Jan    0.120814462
Feb   0.100997691
Mar   0.101887097
Apr   0.100683333
May   0.064677419
Jun   0.0657
Jul   0.037592742
Aug   0.034548387
Sep   0.079334259
Oct   0.103056989
Nov   0.138518601
Dec   0.063729395

The average conversion J-D 2003-2010 is +.084.

Here is every month's conversion. Columns are 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, respectively. As you can see March 2008 (in arrows) had a particularly large conversion of .15 (vs. the normal march conversion of .10). Because I have no reason to believe that the conversion will be .15 instead of the normal .1, this has essentially reduced my expectation for the UAH March anomaly by .05C, from around -.05C to -.1C. Previously I believed that 2008's conversion of .15C might be the norm.

Jan		0.057741935	0.070451613	0.162290323	0.200870968	0.133451613	-0.016471635	0.174374424	0.183806452
Feb		0.008057882	0.121655172	0.082450739	0.181843596	0.154665025	-0.041689655	0.154343596	0.146655172
Mar		0.000483871	0.054806452	0.105483871	0.140774194	0.114741935    >0.151903226<   0.142709677	0.104193548
Apr		0.052366667	0.009933333	0.105133333	0.1392          0.118233333	0.198933333	0.102166667	0.0795
May		0.040935484	-0.064645161	0.132322581	0.072645161	0.093806452	0.080387097	0.144064516	0.017903226
Jun		0.021366667	0.0033		0.1013		0.080533333	0.094233333	0.0553		0.140266667	0.0293
Jul		0.046709677	-0.02416129	0.084129032	-0.02083871	0.002870968	0.080193548	0.148774194	-0.016935484
Aug		0.020129032	0.007258065	0.046967742	0.059096774	-0.004483871	0.095516129	0.061096774	-0.009193548
Sep		0.063166667	0.079933333	0.0678		0.124533333	0.019233333	0.151466667	0.096307407	0.032233333
Oct		0.05652043	0.127290323	0.117548387	0.144096774	0.038967742	0.188419355	0.066935484	0.084677419
Nov		0.084625	0.149366667	0.152833333	0.215933333	0.041866667	0.2025		0.151666667	0.109357143
Dec		0.126816747	0.060954521	0.057331571	0.1627578	-0.063668429	0.111544685	0.007052882	0.04704538

[BethesdaWX]

The reason UAH turns out warmer than AMSU 2002-2010 AQUA is at least partially due to the longer & thus Colder Base avg on UAH. 2002-2010 is a very warm base.

Even so, do you realize even now, todays global temperature AQUA anom of -21.01C vs the avg of -20.69C is -0.32C (below avg), and the MAR as a whole has avged -0.31C?

Even for MAR to end up around -0.1C in the end, we would have to avg +0.21C starting now. And its highly unlikely MAR trends upward the entire time without a few blips and dips. MAR likely ends up between -0.15C to -0.2C in the end.

I find it almost inevidable, UAH most likely ends up lower than JAN & FEB, unless we see an unprecedented spike in the temps, (which is unlikely once again, given latest indications of another SSW & warmth surrounding a cold pocket at the pole hehe)

[Clifford]

Are you comparing the Ch5 to TMT or TLT?

I made this graph a few days ago.

January 2011 Ch5 compared to TMT, TLT, and TLS.

The Ch5 followed fairly close to the TMT, as expected, although I'm not sure what caused the differences.

I also did a long-term comparison of the data.

Obviously we aren't living at 14,000 feet, but it is one of the most consistent daily data sets that we have. Perhaps the 14,000 Ch5/TMT data is slightly more stable than the surface temperature data.

I've lost the continuity on the JRA-25 data with the Maue snafu.

I have captured some of the GFS 0-hr images from the Maue website. The anomalies jump around quite a bit with the 4x daily measurements.

Has anybody ever sent a note to UAH to try to find out why we lost Ch4, near surface, and whether it is coming back?

[skierinvermont]

I don't really understand why your graphs show what they do.

I would have expected the CH5 AMSU data to be colder than the official TMT data from UAH. I would have thought the data off the AMSU site would only use the 2003-2010 base period, while the UAH TMT data would use 1979-2010.

It does appear as if AMSU TMT is warmer than UAH TMT slightly in your first graph.

And if they are using the same base period, why are there any differences at all?

Very confused.

To answer your question: My conversion charts were from AMSU CH5 TMT to official UAH TLT.

I assumed the UAH TLT runs warmer than AMSU CH5 TMT because UAH TLT uses 1979-2010, while AMSU is 2003-2010.

[skierinvermont]

I have been working on some simple statistical models for how different variables have affected climate historically and how they might affect it in the future. So far all I have completed is models for ENSO and ENSO+CO2. The ENSO corrected model of GISS reveals that we have reached a new record high for ENSO-corrected surface air temperature in the last two months. In the future I hope to use these statistical models to show how other variables might have affected climate historically, and how they might affect it in the future.

I have only performed this for GISS so far because I believe it is the most accurate of the temperature indexes. Satellite analyses have numerous unresolved problems and active debate about how to resolve those problems. HadCRUT leaves out the arctic, while GISS largely correctly extrapolates rapid warming into the arctic. Ideally I believe HadCRUT should be used with satellites to infill missing data, which would yield a result similar, perhaps slightly cooler than GISS.

For my model I used:

-Smoothed law dome ice core data for annual CO2 concentration for every month up to 1978

http://cdiac.ornl.go...e.smoothed.yr20

-Mauna Loa January mean CO2 concentration for all years and months after 1978 (January was used for every month of the year to remove the seasonal trend)

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa..../co2_mm_mlo.txt

-CPC ONI trimonthlies entered as the value for the middle month

http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

-GISS monthly LOTI anomalies

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

For the CO2+ONI model I got similar results to what Don posted a month or two ago.

I also did a ONI only model using a 3-month lag (which yielded the strongest correlation). The coefficient was 10.9, indicating that for every 1C the ONI rises, the temperature rises 10.8 hundredths, or .108C. I decided to use this relationship to create an ENSO-corrected index of GISS temperature. This generally helped to smooth out the peaks and troughs caused by ENSO. It also revealed the last 2 months set record highs for ENSO-corrected temperature. A zoomed in graph of this model from 1996-Feb 2011 is below:

Based on this ENSO-corrected version of GISS, I decided to calculate temperature trend values to the present. Trends to the present rise from .103C/decade in 1950, to .129C/decade in 1960, to .154C/decade in 1970, to .169C/decade in 1980, to .212C/decade in 1990. For the uncorrected GISS version the respective values are .111C/decade (1950), .137C/decade (1960), .165C/decade (1970), .166C/decade (1980), and .188C/decade (1990). I then graphed the values from 1995-present vs. values for raw GISS trends, since this is the period for which ENSO corrections make a difference. The graph is below:

As you can see, correcting for ENSO removes much of the variation in trends to present over short time periods. Selecting trends to present starting in 1998 or 1999 tends to exaggerate warming (for GISS - satellites would be 3 months more lagged). Selecting trends to present starting in 2001-2005 tends to hide warming. 2000 appears to be a good ENSO-neutral starting point for GISS, for the time being. As this Nina progresses early 1998 and late 1999 may become ENSO-neutral starting points.

Even ENSO corrected trends starting in 2005 show no global warming. This is probably partially related to the solar minimum getting going around then. Since 2007/2008 the warming has started back up, indicating the solar cycle may have reached its maximum effect.

ENSO-corrected warming trends since 1997, and 2002, have continued at .14C/decade and .11C/decade respectively, near the theoretical rate.

[Clifford]

NOAA has released their numbers:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/2

Jan / Feb

Global

Land +0.45 / +0.51

Ocean +0.35 / +0.36

Land+Ocean +0.38 / +0.40

NH

Land +0.43 / +0.61

Ocean +0.35 / +0.31

Land+Ocean +0.38 / +0.42

SH

Land +0.50 / +0.24

Ocean +.36 / +0.41

Land+Ocean +0.38 / +0.38

So...

While most other organizations are showing a slight January to February temperature decrease.

Globally, and in the Northern Hemisphere, NOAA is showing a temperature INCREASE.

[BethesdaWX]

AMSU in the spike, should continue upwards for another 2-4 days before leveling and/or dropping a bit, as we see before the -NAO from the SSW event.

Thing is, its a 2 week plunge, then a bounce back to positive in Mid April, (imo). So APR definitely should come in warmer then MAR, which will most likely be the Bottom-out point on the UAH monthlies around -0.1 to -0.15C.

Initial recovery likely potent on this one.

[skierinvermont]

AMSU in the spike, should continue upwards for another 2-4 days before leveling and/or dropping a bit, as we see before the -NAO from the SSW event.

Thing is, its a 2 week plunge, then a bounce back to positive in Mid April, (imo). So APR definitely should come in warmer then MAR, which will most likely be the Bottom-out point on the UAH monthlies around -0.1 to -0.15C.

Initial recovery likely potent on this one.

Do you have any evidence of a correlation between TLT and the NAO?

[BethesdaWX]

Do you have any evidence of a correlation between TLT and the NAO?

Its more of what is causing the -NAO rather than the -NAO itself. Yes the SST's/surface is part of it, and yes the -NAO will slow the Jet, and yes you'll see a change in the GLAAM, but its also activity in the stratosphere...sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW's) that I love watching, because they tend to signal change in the tropopause down the road. And one thing leads to another...

[skierinvermont]

Its more of what is causing the -NAO rather than the -NAO itself. Yes the SST's/surface is part of it, and yes the -NAO will slow the Jet, and yes you'll see a change in the GLAAM, but its also activity in the stratosphere...sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW's) that I love watching, because they tend to signal change in the tropopause down the road. And one thing leads to another...

The SSWs are in the stratosphere... and wouldn't alter TLT directly. What effect they have globally as they propagate downwards I really don't know. Which is why I ask do you have a correlation.