BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 We are competing because 5 months ago SSTs were comparable. But over the last 5 months 2011 diverged from 2008. 2008 SST's at this time were much colder, yet we're colder than 2008 now. I find it interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 2008 SST's at this time were much colder, yet we're colder than 2008 now. I find it interesting... The effect on the troposphere is lagged 5 months. It doesn't matter what SSTs today are vs 2008s. It matters what they were 5 months ago. 5 months ago our SSTs are comparable.. that is the only thing bringing us even close to 2008, although we have generally been .1C warmer. It's also possible the solar effect had not quite maxed out in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The effect on the troposphere is lagged 5 months. It doesn't matter what SSTs today are vs 2008s. It matters what they were 5 months ago. 5 months ago our SSTs are comparable.. that is the only thing bringing us even close to 2008, although we have generally been .1C warmer. It's also possible the solar effect had not quite maxed out in 2008. Ok, you asked for it. FYI, the lag is 5 months? Not according to The chart posted earlier by clifford. Anyway Tell me, which yr looks colder SST wise? 2010: Warmer AMO Warmer PDO Warmer Arctic Weaker La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The effect on the troposphere is lagged 5 months. It doesn't matter what SSTs today are vs 2008s. It matters what they were 5 months ago. 5 months ago our SSTs are comparable.. that is the only thing bringing us even close to 2008, although we have generally been .1C warmer. It's also possible the solar effect had not quite maxed out in 2008. From July 15-December 31, 2008 and 2010 had about the exact same SSTs, minor variation. The divergence really developed in February, although 2011 SSTs are dropping again as per AMSU. It will be interesting when the new NOAA SST map comes out tomorrow, as we should see some changes in the Atlantic with that vortex near Greenland, and we also need to keep monitoring ENSO carefully with the subsurface warm pool having crawled all the way to 140W but now trade winds starting up, and the Niña maintaining good connections to the Baja cold pool and Humboldt current. Clash of the titans out there lately... What amazes me though is how each subsequent La Niña since the 1998 Super El Niño has offered more of what I like to call "cooling potential." The 1999-2000 strong La Niña didn't have global temperatures as cold as 2008 despite the fact that the latter event was only moderate, not strong. This year, a strong La Niña, has been showing some colder anomalies recently than 2008 despite the fact that SSTs aren't nearly as cold, the AMO is extremely positive, and we just had a 1.8C Niño. So what is causing this increase in cooling potential? I would assume it has to be solar, and the fact that global temperatures are just generally in a plateau state with less AGW warming than imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I know I am being kind of anal about ENSO, but 2008 was not a stronger La Niña using the standard ONI scale, Bethesda. It may have lasted longer into the spring, but the highest monthly was only -1.4C whereas I believe we got to -1.5C or so this winter. Just a minor correction...they were about equal in strength. Your other points about the preceding ENSO state and AMO are well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 From July 15-December 31, 2008 and 2010 had about the exact same SSTs, minor variation. The divergence really developed in February, although 2011 SSTs are dropping again as per AMSU. It will be interesting when the new NOAA SST map comes out tomorrow, as we should see some changes in the Atlantic with that vortex near Greenland, and we also need to keep monitoring ENSO carefully with the subsurface warm pool having crawled all the way to 140W but now trade winds starting up, and the Niña maintaining good connections to the Baja cold pool and Humboldt current. Clash of the titans out there lately... What amazes me though is how each subsequent La Niña since the 1998 Super El Niño has offered more of what I like to call "cooling potential." The 1999-2000 strong La Niña didn't have global temperatures as cold as 2008 despite the fact that the latter event was only moderate, not strong. This year, a strong La Niña, has been showing some colder anomalies recently than 2008 despite the fact that SSTs aren't nearly as cold, the AMO is extremely positive, and we just had a 1.8C Niño. So what is causing this increase in cooling potential? I would assume it has to be solar, and the fact that global temperatures are just generally in a plateau state with less AGW warming than imagined. I believe the 2008 La Nina dipped colder than this one. Also 2008 had a bigger -PDO, cooler AMO, and colder global SST's...& we're still colder than it as we speak. If.....Intracycle solar cooling is responsible for this, a weak SC24 and that immense energy loss would be respnsible for alot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Nzucker...it is important to remember the ENSO regions that have the biggest impact, and tell of a stronger/weaker atmospheric signal. The N3.4 regions were colder in 2008, and the N4 & N3 regions & the involved N3.4 are more impotant than N1-2 IMFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Here's the global SST anomalies form UAH....2008 was definitely a lot colder in the last couple months of the year vs 2010 and slightly colder before that month to month. We should see a rebound back above 2008 because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Great discussion tonight, everyone, a far cry from what we've seen lately in this forum. Should have a better idea of the medium-range global temperature trend when we get into June/July and ENSO is starting to straighten itself out. Hard to say anything definitive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Nzucker...it is important to remember the ENSO regions that have the biggest impact, and tell of a stronger/weaker atmospheric signal. The N3.4 regions were colder in 2008, and the N4 & N3 regions & the involved N3.4 are more impotant than N1-2 IMFO. Concur that the 2008 event was in many ways a more impressive La Niña. I just wanted to make sure you knew that 2010-11 would be recognized as a stronger La Niña officially however, going by the ONI scale which measures Region 3.4 SST anomaly. Not saying you are wrong in any way in your analysis of the event from a more complex, meteorological standpoint, Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Concur that the 2008 event was in many ways a more impressive La Niña. I just wanted to make sure you knew that 2010-11 would be recognized as a stronger La Niña officially however, going by the ONI scale which measures Region 3.4 SST anomaly. Not saying you are wrong in any way in your analysis of the event from a more complex, meteorological standpoint, Bethesda. Both ONI and MEI will be more impressive on this one, though just outside the ENSO measured regions, '07-'08 had a lot colder water. The meteorological pattern was much more Nina-like in '07-'08 too over the PAC and into North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Both ONI and MEI will be more impressive on this one, though just outside the ENSO measured regions, '07-'08 had a lot colder water. The meteorological pattern was much more Nina-like in '07-'08 too over the PAC and into North America. We started out with a quite Niño-like pattern this winter in North America...huge -NAO block causing record cold in the Southeast U.S. during December, then an MJO pulse into Phase 7/8 during January that brought a big +PNA and intense winter conditions from PHL north, and even at some points down into the Deep South/Southern Plains. Interestingly, as the subsurface warmth has manifested itself and some signs start to point towards El Niño for next winter, this winter has actually become more Niña-like from a North American pattern standpoint. We have the classic Aleutian ridge/Pacific NW trough/-PNA, as well as a lack of blocking with very cold anomalies over North-Central Canada. I remember that Canada was quite cold as well during the 2008 event with some of that cold sweeping into the Northern Rockies and U.S. High Plains during Winter 07-08, similar to what we've seen since early February in 2011. December 2007 also had a displaced AK block similar to this time around. The short wavelengths of late winter also seem to cause the current AK/Aleutians block to teleconnect more to troughing in the Plains rather than in the OH Valley/East Coast, which we might see if it were December or January. Interesting, and I think this troughing in the Midwest and cold air over Canada may produce an active springtime pattern for the Northeast U.S. with frequent rainfall, potential late-season snows, and even severe weather outbreaks following short heat waves. Should be a lot more fun than last spring's hellish regime, plenty of temperature contrasts and swings in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Here's a better look at the AMSU SSTs...you can clearly see that the period in October has similar SSTs but all other periods '07-'08 was colder...so with the 5 month lag, you can understand why we might be getting into 2008 temp levels. Magenta or Purple is obviously 2011 where is cuts off early on....yellow is 2010, blue is 2007, and red is 2008. You can see in that one month period near the end of the graph where the blue and yellow line were basically even...that was October. If 2011 comes in colder than 2008 in March, the SSTs wouldn't fully explain it, but they would come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Actually, when it comes to trimonthly ONI numbers, which are the official basis for ENSO strenght, this Nina was tied with 2007-08 with a -1.4 peak. Neither was officially a strong Nina (-1.5 or greater). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Actually, when it comes to trimonthly ONI numbers, which are the official basis for ENSO strenght, this Nina was tied with 2007-08 with a -1.4 peak. Neither was officially a strong Nina (-1.5 or greater). I'm surprised it came in that high....it really weakened late. Who knows what 2011 will do from here on out. The Indian Ocean is cooling though since January....so that will be interesting to see. If 2011 stays below 2008 for another several weeks, then there will need to be some explaining since ocean SSTs were essentially equal in October but other months were clearly higher in 2010-2011. I don't think that will happen though, but its already notable that we are running a bit under 2008 so far this month despite equal SSTs from the 5 month lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Ok, you asked for it. FYI, the lag is 5 months? Not according to The chart posted earlier by clifford. No. The lag between global SSTs and the lower tropospheric temperature is about 5 months. This is seen on Clifford's chart. Global SSTs began falling in April/May, but the drop in temperature in the lower troposphere did not begin until September. Everybody knows there is a lag of 5 months... dont know why on earth you would deny this. Seems like you just want to argue. "I asked for it"? Asked for what? Lose the attitude. You've provided no evidence, just attitude and huffing and puffing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 From July 15-December 31, 2008 and 2010 had about the exact same SSTs, minor variation. You are using the wrong year. You are selecting 2008.. but we are talking about the 07-08 Nina and making comparisons to 2008 temperatures... thus it is the July 15 to Dec 31 2007 SSTs that are relevant. I believe you are mixing up 2007 and 2008. We were comparable to July-December sst 2008 temperatures... not 2007. Late 2007 SSTs were much colder for the most part, except October. Because October was 5 months ago.. this is probably the period of this Nina in which we can expect tropospheric temps closest to 2008s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 You are using the wrong year. You are selecting 2008.. but we are talking about the 07-08 Nina and making comparisons to 2008 temperatures... thus it is the July 15 to Dec 31 2007 SSTs that are relevant. I believe you are mixing up 2007 and 2008. We were comparable to July-December sst 2008 temperatures... not 2007. Late 2007 SSTs were much colder for the most part, except October. Because October was 5 months ago.. this is probably the period of this Nina in which we can expect tropospheric temps closest to 2008s. Sorry, that's what I meant. 08 was a weak Niña and not as cold globally. There is a strong connection between SSTA and lower tropospheric temps, obviously, but I can see some departures in the short/medium term with factors such as the AO or ice/snow albedo...it seems as if most of the cold airmasses are over land right now, which may be just an accident or a symptom of something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 No. The lag between global SSTs and the lower tropospheric temperature is about 5 months. This is seen on Clifford's chart. Global SSTs began falling in April/May, but the drop in temperature in the lower troposphere did not begin until September. Everybody knows there is a lag of 5 months... dont know why on earth you would deny this. Seems like you just want to argue. "I asked for it"? Asked for what? Lose the attitude. You've provided no evidence, just attitude and huffing and puffing. wait are you talking about surface or LT? Don't nitpick, the point stands...SST's were equal or lower in 2008 even with the 5 month lag, and we're cooler. Theres nothing you can say or do to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 wait are you talking about surface or LT? Don't nitpick, the point stands...SST's were equal or lower in 2008 even with the 5 month lag, and we're cooler. Theres nothing you can say or do to change that. Yes for just over two weeks, as zucker said other factors like the AO may have a short term effect. This doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Late 2010s SSTs were predominantly warmer and we have been predominantly warmer this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yes for just over two weeks, as zucker said other factors like the AO may have a short term effect. This doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Late 2010s SSTs were predominantly warmer and we have been predominantly warmer this year. Its been over 3 weeks solidly below 2008, and may stretch to a month or more....the -NAO/-AO don't really effect global temps...in fact they warm the Arctic, Warm the AMO, and slows down the global jet. We have a warmer AMO, warmer PDO, warmer Global SST's, and a less favorable NAO/AO this year...and yet we;re cooler. If by some miracle this continues into April, I'll be quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Wow, AMSU has dropped even further today, really getting down there now! We are approaching the record MAR low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Wow, AMSU has dropped even further today, really getting down there now! We are approaching the record MAR low. The supposed "missing heat" is becoming more "missing"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Its been over 3 weeks solidly below 2008, and may stretch to a month or more....the -NAO/-AO don't really effect global temps...in fact they warm the Arctic, Warm the AMO, and slows down the global jet. We have a warmer AMO, warmer PDO, warmer Global SST's, and a less favorable NAO/AO this year...and yet we;re cooler. If by some miracle this continues into April, I'll be quite surprised. Remember this Volcano that erupted in Late January? Or this one in November? (Colors indicate volcanic aersoles being spewed into the air) The animation you see below shows the volcanic ash cloud and SO2 moving across western Australia as of today. While we may not know yet what the implications will be weeks or months from now, it's more evidence that the volcano may indeed cause a change in the overall weather patterns down the road. Typically, it takes months for the patterns to changes, so if that's the case, the changes in the pattern will be seen in January and February. http://www.accuweath...ther-coming.asp I'm thinking that these recent large explosions have aided the La Nina cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 They said that It would be seen in JAN/FEB, so I'm not sure its related at this point. Also they barely scratched the critical level of the stratosphere. But who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Remember this Volcano that erupted in Late January? Or this one in November? (Colors indicate volcanic aersoles being spewed into the air) http://www.accuweath...ther-coming.asp I'm thinking that these recent large explosions have aided the La Nina cooling. That's an awesome photo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 That's an awesome photo! Yeah that's really a beautiful shot, well done by the photographer! I wasn't aware these volcanoes were supposed to have major climate effects, however, as they just scraped the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 The supposed "missing heat" is becoming more "missing"...... 2010 months with ch 5 record daily readings: january, march, may, july, august, september, october, november 2010/2011 months with ch 5 record low daily readings: <invalid function> much ado about a strong nina leading to recent cooler global temps....no surprise here, exactly what happens with variability and oscillations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 2010 months with ch 5 record daily readings: january, march, may, july, august, september, october, november 2010/2011 months with ch 5 record low daily readings: <invalid function> much ado about a strong nina leading to recent cooler global temps....no surprise here, exactly what happens with variability and oscillations Dude, this is the 2011 temprature thread, its all about the variability in short term, not the AGW Hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 2010 months with ch 5 record daily readings: january, march, may, july, august, september, october, november 2010/2011 months with ch 5 record low daily readings: <invalid function> much ado about a strong nina leading to recent cooler global temps....no surprise here, exactly what happens with variability and oscillations Much ado about a strong Nino leading to warmer global temps....no surprise here, exactly what happens with variability and oscillations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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