2011 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

Regardless of the datasource, we see the decrease in all measured datasets since 1990, and the ones that go back to 1950 have it near 20% in 60yrs..

No. It has been increasing since 1990 on every datasource (SSM/I satellite data is primarily used). And prior to 1990 there is no good data except for the surface, where it has been increasing.

Please see:

Zvaryaev and Chu, 2003; Trenberth et al. 2005, Uppala et al. 2005

Here is the SSM/I satellite data for column water vapor:

[skierinvermont]

I don't really understand why skiier so confidently asserted we had bottomed out and that March/April would be warmer than 2008. There was plenty of reason to think that might not be the case.

I still think that March/April will be warmer than 2008 on UAH/RSS. I've never said anything like it will definitely happen - I've said "probably" a dozen times. That's just my prediction based on the warmer SSTs than 2008, the fact that CH5 has been warmer for the last 4+ months, and the fact that CH5 appears to have bottomed out. We'll just have to see I guess.

As for whether we've "bottomed out" on CH5 - I was referring to the 4+ week trend. I didn't say that we would never surpass -.3C anoms for a brief spike. The trend since late January is still slightly positive, If we keep dropping then maybe we haven't bottomed out and I will change my mind. But until we see the trend since late Jan go negative, I believe we have bottomed out.

[nzucker]

I still think that March/April will be warmer than 2008 on UAH/RSS. I've never said anything like it will definitely happen - I've said "probably" a dozen times. That's just my prediction. We'll just have to see I guess.

It will be difficult for March given the colder start than 2008 and 2008's spike later in the month; 2008 also spiked up to average in April so we'd have to warm a lot for 2011 to get to that point. Not saying it's impossible but your prediction looks shaky at this point. Mar/Apr was a totally different ballgame in 2008 in terms of global temperatures, very sharp increase after a brutally cold Jan/Feb.

SSTs are way higher than 2008 and were increasing steadily until recently on AMSU, now have come down a bit. But I don't think this matters too much for Channel 5 since we have some huge negative anomalies over land right now with the very cold airmasses over Canada and Antarctica. Very impressive cold showing up in Canada with -40C 850s in mid March.

[nzucker]

I still think that March/April will be warmer than 2008 on UAH/RSS. I've never said anything like it will definitely happen - I've said "probably" a dozen times. That's just my prediction. We'll just have to see I guess.

As for whether we've "bottomed out" on CH5 - I was referring to the 4+ week trend. I didn't say that we would never surpass -.3C anoms for a brief spike. The trend since late January is still slightly positive, If we keep dropping then maybe we haven't bottomed out and I will change my mind. But until we see the trend since late Jan go negative, I believe we have bottomed out.

I love how you obsessively start with late January in order to avoid the spike that happened in mid January, very biased.

Sort of like drawing a trend line on UAH from January 1998 to January 2011 and saying that global temperatures have been decreasing. Basically the same thing you accuse Bethesda and many skeptics of doing with manipulating starting points, but only now you're doing it yourself and incorporating it into a pseudo-scientific argument. Disappointing.

[ORH_wxman]

It will be difficult for March given the colder start than 2008 and 2008's spike later in the month; 2008 also spiked up to average in April so we'd have to warm a lot for 2011 to get to that point. Not saying it's impossible but your prediction looks shaky at this point. Mar/Apr was a totally different ballgame in 2008 in terms of global temperatures, very sharp increase after a brutally cold Jan/Feb.

SSTs are way higher than 2008 and were increasing steadily until recently on AMSU, now have come down a bit. But I don't think this matters too much for Channel 5 since we have some huge negative anomalies over land right now with the very cold airmasses over Canada and Antarctica. Very impressive cold showing up in Canada with -40C 850s in mid March.

We'll have to see a pretty good spike soon for March 2011 to finish warmer than 2008 if we assume channel 5 is accurately representing UAH.

[skierinvermont]

I love how you obsessively start with late January in order to avoid the spike that happened in mid January, very biased.

Sort of like drawing a trend line on UAH from January 1998 to January 2011 and saying that global temperatures have been decreasing. Basically the same thing you accuse Bethesda and many skeptics of doing with manipulating starting points, but only now you're doing it yourself and incorporating it into a pseudo-scientific argument. Disappointing.

If temperatures have indeed bottomed out.. then by definition the start of the trend line will be the coldest point of the year.

[nzucker]

If temperatures have indeed bottomed out.. then by definition the start of the trend line will be the coldest point of the year.

There are blips up and down though on Channel 5; most of the decline was in November.

Having a month that stays entirely well below the average line is more impressive to me than what the bottom number was one day. That's a very deceptive tactic for framing the debate...besides, it looks like the coldest point in January was .3C below average and we're currently .31C below average, so that sounds like the same thing to me except more consistent cold anomalies in March 2011 than January 2011. Unless you can refute this idea, I think you're just using the same tactic of dishonest skeptics who deliberately manipulate starting points/ending points on graphs and charts. What makes your analysis different?

Also, why do you think Channel 5 is going to rise fast enough to stay warmer than 2008 in March/April given that SSTs are declining again and brutal airmasses are over land? If anything, I'd say the coming pattern over the North Atlantic and Pacific argues for an even bigger drop in SSTs with very strong trade winds in the ENSO regions and a powerful +NAO/stormy Atlantic pattern. So I wouldn't think the trend in SSTs being warmer than 2008 is meaningful, especially given three factors: lag time, pronounced cold over landmasses, likely decline in SSTs for mid to late March.

[skierinvermont]

There are blips up and down though on Channel 5; most of the decline was in November.

Having a month that stays entirely well below the average line is more impressive to me than what the bottom number was one day. That's a very deceptive tactic for framing the debate...besides, it looks like the coldest point in January was .3C below average and we're currently .31C below average, so that sounds like the same thing to me except more consistent cold anomalies in March 2011 than January 2011. Unless you can refute this idea, I think you're just using the same tactic of dishonest skeptics who deliberately manipulate starting points/ending points on graphs and charts. What makes your analysis different?

Also, why do you think Channel 5 is going to rise fast enough to stay warmer than 2008 in March/April given that SSTs are declining again and brutal airmasses are over land? If anything, I'd say the coming pattern over the North Atlantic and Pacific argues for an even bigger drop in SSTs with very strong trade winds in the ENSO regions and a powerful +NAO/stormy Atlantic pattern. So I wouldn't think the trend in SSTs being warmer than 2008 is meaningful, especially given three factors: lag time, pronounced cold over landmasses, likely decline in SSTs for mid to late March.

Any recent or potential future decline (I doubt you can actually accurately forecast global SSTAs very well) is probably nearly totally irrelevant to lower tropospheric temperatures in the short term given the lag times. Moreover, they are still much warmer than 2008.

Given both global SSTs and lower tropospheric temperatures have been consistently warmer than the 07-08 Nina thus far, I see no reason why lower tropospheric temperatures will suddenly become colder. LT temps correlate well to SSTAs.. and SSTAs have been consistently and fairly substantially warmer. I believe the last 2 weeks are a temporary phenomenon.

If temperatures have not bottomed out... then I should be able to pick any starting point 4+ weeks ago and find a cooling trend. The fact that I can pick starting points anywhere from Jan 15 to Feb 1 and find a warming trend on CH5, indicates it has bottomed out. Now maybe it is just a temporary plateau.. but it is by far the longest such plateau of this Nina.

[skierinvermont]

It will be difficult for March given the colder start than 2008 and 2008's spike later in the month; 2008 also spiked up to average in April so we'd have to warm a lot for 2011 to get to that point. Not saying it's impossible but your prediction looks shaky at this point. Mar/Apr was a totally different ballgame in 2008 in terms of global temperatures, very sharp increase after a brutally cold Jan/Feb.

SSTs are way higher than 2008 and were increasing steadily until recently on AMSU, now have come down a bit. But I don't think this matters too much for Channel 5 since we have some huge negative anomalies over land right now with the very cold airmasses over Canada and Antarctica. Very impressive cold showing up in Canada with -40C 850s in mid March.

I don't think it looks shaky at all. The recent dip makes me slightly less confident. We'll just see I guess.

2008 started March fairly warm compared to the rest of March and the previous month. This year has been the opposite .. it is starting the month with a dip. I am 90% sure we will surpass 2008 in the dailies Ch5 readings by the 13th of the month. It will then be a question of whether the last 2/3s of the month can compensate for the first 10-12 days.

April was actually colder than Feb or March on Ch5. You are right it spiked up at the end of the month but you forgot to mention the first 2/3s of the month were brutally cold.

This is why we use averages.

[nzucker]

I don't think it looks shaky at all. The recent dip makes me slightly less confident.

2008 started March fairly warm compared to the rest of March and the previous month. This year has been the opposite .. it is starting the month with a dip.

April was actually the coldest month of 2008 on Channel 5. You are right it spiked up at the end of the month but you forgot to mention the first 2/3s of the month were brutally cold.

This is why we use averages.

April 2008, of course, only finished at -.02C on UAH, the warmest month of that year until the fall. That may argue that Channel 5 has limited usefulness in determining the final anomaly. Also, I wonder what the significance of staying consistently below the average on Channel 5 is compared to having a low spike and then a higher spike, in terms of UAH final anomaly.

March 2008 and March 2011 look to have started similarly, with relative warmth on March 1st and then quickly falling...2011 is clearly below the 2008 curve, however. It just seems like there's been a crossover, but who knows....Not sure what you are looking at here?

BTW congrats on making the top of Mt. Washington! I will do it in winter soon, I assume. Been up there four times in the summer but never seen the wintry side of it, doesn't sound like the hike was too bad, sometimes that deep deep snow helps you out

[skierinvermont]

April 2008, of course, only finished at -.02C on UAH, the warmest month of that year until the fall. That may argue that Channel 5 has limited usefulness in determining the final anomaly.

I noticed the same thing. April was quite cold on CH5 AMSU, but not that cold on UAH. I suspect that part of the reason for this is that AMSU baselines only have 8 years of data. So if 7/8 of the Aprils were notably warm, the adjustment to get to UAH will be different than for other months. This tells me that when trying to convert March or April AMSU CH5 anomalies to UAH, it may be necessary to add more than in Jan and Feb. To convert Jan/Feb we may only need to add +.1.. but to convert March/April we may need to add +.2 or something.

It's also worth noting I said "UAH/RSS" or "the satellites" in general .. so I will probably use an average of UAH+RSS for verification. RSS did come up in April 08 but not as much: -.095.

March 2008 and March 2011 look to have started similarly, with relative warmth on March 1st and then quickly falling...2011 is clearly below the 2008 curve, however. It just seems like there's been a crossover, but who knows....Not sure what you are looking at here?

The dip in 2008 starts later, and it had a larger rise in late Feb.. 2008 has been in a warm spell, 2011 hasn't as much. As I said, I am 90% sure we will cross back above 2008 by the 13th.

[BethesdaWX]

No. It has been increasing since 1990 on every datasource (SSM/I satellite data is primarily used). And prior to 1990 there is no good data except for the surface, where it has been increasing.

Please see:

Zvaryaev and Chu, 2003; Trenberth et al. 2005, Uppala et al. 2005

Here is the SSM/I satellite data for column water vapor:

1) I was reffering to GCC measurement from ISCCP

2) Is this Relative WV? hehe++

3) You skipped the main points my previous post completely in regards to dataset evaluation.

[BethesdaWX]

I still think that March/April will be warmer than 2008 on UAH/RSS. I've never said anything like it will definitely happen - I've said "probably" a dozen times. That's just my prediction based on the warmer SSTs than 2008, the fact that CH5 has been warmer for the last 4+ months, and the fact that CH5 appears to have bottomed out. We'll just have to see I guess.

As for whether we've "bottomed out" on CH5 - I was referring to the 4+ week trend. I didn't say that we would never surpass -.3C anoms for a brief spike. The trend since late January is still slightly positive, If we keep dropping then maybe we haven't bottomed out and I will change my mind. But until we see the trend since late Jan go negative, I believe we have bottomed out.

What do you consider "bottoming out" then?

The 4 week trend? Its a cooling trend... The trend since Mid JAN has been down as well, as has the 6 month trend. There has been no real change in the downward trend yet.

We've just hit the coldest anom of the Entire Nina, and may even go lower. That doesn't seem like bottoming out to me.

[BethesdaWX]

April 2008, of course, only finished at -.02C on UAH, the warmest month of that year until the fall. That may argue that Channel 5 has limited usefulness in determining the final anomaly. Also, I wonder what the significance of staying consistently below the average on Channel 5 is compared to having a low spike and then a higher spike, in terms of UAH final anomaly.

March 2008 and March 2011 look to have started similarly, with relative warmth on March 1st and then quickly falling...2011 is clearly below the 2008 curve, however. It just seems like there's been a crossover, but who knows....Not sure what you are looking at here?

BTW congrats on making the top of Mt. Washington! I will do it in winter soon, I assume. Been up there four times in the summer but never seen the wintry side of it, doesn't sound like the hike was too bad, sometimes that deep deep snow helps you out

I think there is somewhat of a Lag on UAH in regards to the SST/Surface anomaly. I took a look at cliffords chart, this shows up pretty well.

April 2011 probably is warmer than 2008, if you ask me and my untrained mind.

[skierinvermont]

What do you consider "bottoming out" then?

The 4 week trend? Its a cooling trend... The trend since Mid JAN has been down as well, as has the 6 month trend. There has been no real change in the downward trend yet.

We've just hit the coldest anom of the Entire Nina, and may even go lower. That doesn't seem like bottoming out to me.

Any trend since Jan 15-Feb 1 is positive..that's a 5-7 week trend ... which is the longest such positive trend we have had by far since the cooling commenced.

[BethesdaWX]

Any trend since Jan 15-Feb 1 is positive..that's a 5-7 week trend ... which is the longest such positive trend we have had by far.

what? Please tell me where you get this from!

The Spike in Mid JAN the last time we were above normal, then the Dip. You cannot use the base of a 10 day dip to calculate a trend. The trend overall since Mid/Late JAN has been down.

[BethesdaWX]

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002

[skierinvermont]

what? Please tell me where you get this from!

The Spike in Mid JAN the last time we were above normal, then the Dip. You cannot use the base of a 10 day dip to calculate a trend. The trend overall since Mid/Late JAN has been down.

http://discover.itsc...h?amsutemps+002

It is much easier to see when the anomalies are graphed, instead of absolute temperature. See the red line in Clifford's graph. Any trend since Jan15-Feb1 is positive.

For the purposes of determining when we bottomed, I can start in the dip. in fact by definition any increase begins in dip. Any mountain side begins in a valley, by definition. And besides, there is a positive trend even if I don't start in the dip.. there is a positive trend even if I start on Jan 15. There has not been a plateau nearly this long since the cooling commenced. Who knows.. maybe it is just a really long plateau.

This is not the same thing as trying to deduce an underlying temperature trend from data which is obscured by ENSO short term variation.

[BethesdaWX]

It is much easier to see when the anomalies are graphed, instead of absolute temperature. See the red line in Clifford's graph. Any trend since Jan15-Feb1 is positive.

For the purposes of determining when we bottomed, I can start in the dip. in fact by definition any increase begins in dip. Any mountain side begins in a valley, by definition.

We are lower than that now though, and still dropping. AKA, a cooling trend. That graph is not updated.

You're missing the big picture.. 1 step up, 2 steps down. This is probably the lowest drop we see coming up, but what we're about to see Mid March is a higher likelyhood of a "bottoming out" than what was seen in JAN.

[ORH_wxman]

We are lower than that now though, and still dropping. AKA, a cooling trend. That graph is not updated.

You're missing the big picture.. 1 step up, 2 steps down. This is probably the lowest drop we see coming up, but what we're about to see Mid March is a higher likelyhood of a "bottoming out" than what was seen in JAN.

We might be close to January's minimum anomaly right now...but you guys are really arguing semantics. The trend since mid January has been pretty flat. The real question is when will we see a significant rebound.

[BethesdaWX]

We might be close to January's minimum anomaly right now...but you guys are really arguing semantics. The trend since mid January has been pretty flat. The real question is when will we see a significant rebound.

Well the surface seems to be rebounding, so I assume LT will rebound again as well.

I found out the AMSU anomaly off the site, the difference is minimal (0.01C cooler now than the JAN dip), but that counts, right?

[skierinvermont]

The trend since mid January has been pretty flat.

Yes.. that is all I am saying. Maybe it is just a really long plateau... but at least for the time being the cooling from Sept to January has stopped. If you look at the graph it's pretty clear there was a strong cooling signal from early Sept to Mid Jan which has since subsided.. Which is why I suggested we have bottomed out.

[skierinvermont]

We are lower than that now though, and still dropping. AKA, a cooling trend. That graph is not updated.

No, individual data points do not create trends. The trend since mid-Jan is flat (positive if you start late Jan).

[nzucker]

I noticed the same thing. April was quite cold on CH5 AMSU, but not that cold on UAH. I suspect that part of the reason for this is that AMSU baselines only have 8 years of data. So if 7/8 of the Aprils were notably warm, the adjustment to get to UAH will be different than for other months. This tells me that when trying to convert March or April AMSU CH5 anomalies to UAH, it may be necessary to add more than in Jan and Feb. To convert Jan/Feb we may only need to add +.1.. but to convert March/April we may need to add +.2 or something.

It's also worth noting I said "UAH/RSS" or "the satellites" in general .. so I will probably use an average of UAH+RSS for verification. RSS did come up in April 08 but not as much: -.095.

The dip in 2008 starts later, and it had a larger rise in late Feb.. 2008 has been in a warm spell, 2011 hasn't as much. As I said, I am 90% sure we will cross back above 2008 by the 13th.

This is an interesting discussion, and you raise some good points, but we're both nitpicking in terms of trying to compare monthly and weekly anomalies and exact trends on Channel 5/UAH...there's so much natural variance and sufficient uncertainty in satellite global temperature measurements that it probably doesn't mean much to compare a 2-week stretch of 2008 to 2011 on Channel 5, or even an entire month...when you start adding in seasonal biases, uncertainly bars, lag time, variance due to the AO, the analysis probably doesn't hold much water statistically. Of course you'd be in better shoes than I to comment on whether we could prove short-term fluctuations to be statistically significant, but I'd guess it's not very important. UAH/RSS are definitely meant to be used for longer climate monitoring purposes, which is of course the antithesis of this thread where we get absurdly specific

I agree that April 2008 was unusually warm given that Channel 5 was actually lower in April 2008 than it was during the months that finished very cold like Jan/Feb; it's also interested that 2008 also cooled down on UAH again in the summer after the La Niña was starting to fade back towards neutral. Might we see something like this in 2011, especially if the currently forecasted period of high trade winds and slightly dropping global SSTs verifies? What does this mean? Also, did other Aprils show this weird gap between Channel 5 and UAH that wasn't present in the winter months?

We are lower than that now though, and still dropping. AKA, a cooling trend. That graph is not updated.

You're missing the big picture.. 1 step up, 2 steps down. This is probably the lowest drop we see coming up, but what we're about to see Mid March is a higher likelyhood of a "bottoming out" than what was seen in JAN.

Yeah, Clifford's graph, although I'm extremely grateful for it, only goes to the start of March; AMSU discover has had a significant dip in the last week, with the data now out for March 7th. The last few days have seen quite a drop which may affect a short-term trend line.

I would assume this is about the biggest drop we see...you have to take into account that averages for Channel 5 rise a lot during the first week of March, which allows us to have a noticeable decline against the mean when we are cooling. The AMSU average starts to level off now as we approach the second half of March, and that will make it harder to see a decline in the anomalies. I do agree that we seemed to have "crossed the curve" of 2008, if you understand what I'm saying. I don't know how long this holds given that SSTs are only at 2009 levels, a weak Niña year, although we may get some help for the future if the strong trade winds forecasted come true with the continued weakening of the North Atlantic warm pool/+AMO due to an anomalously strong Atlantic jet or +NAO pattern as some call it.

[BethesdaWX]

No, individual data points do not create trends. The trend since mid-Jan is flat (positive if you start late Jan).

Exactly, this is the problem. Start on FEB 1st, and the trend is down. Start JAN 1st, and the trend is down. You pick a deep drop in a tiny timeframe, an anomaly, to start a trend?

If we were to "calculate" the trend mathematically, it would still be down.

[BethesdaWX]

Yeah, Clifford's graph, although I'm extremely grateful for it, only goes to the start of March; AMSU discover has had a significant dip in the last week, with the data now out for March 7th. The last few days have seen quite a drop which may affect a short-term trend line.

I would assume this is about the biggest drop we see...you have to take into account that averages for Channel 5 rise a lot during the first week of March, which allows us to have a noticeable decline against the mean when we are cooling. The AMSU average starts to level off now as we approach the second half of March, and that will make it harder to see a decline in the anomalies. I do agree that we seemed to have "crossed the curve" of 2008, if you understand what I'm saying. I don't know how long this holds given that SSTs are only at 2009 levels, a weak Niña year, although we may get some help for the future if the strong trade winds forecasted come true with the continued weakening of the North Atlantic warm pool/+AMO due to an anomalously strong Atlantic jet or +NAO pattern as some call it.

Agreed. I find it amazing that we're even competing with 2008...look at how low the 2008 SST's were at this time!

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed. I find it amazing that we're even competing with 2008...look at how low the 2008 SST's were at this time!

Its possible we're feeling a slight effect from the solar min. Normal lag is around 2 years, however, with an extended solar min like we've had, the response can possibly get amplified some though there isn't great research yet on extended maxima or mins.

I expect the readings to rebound back above 2008 though. If they do not, it would make for some interesting analysis.

[skierinvermont]

Agreed. I find it amazing that we're even competing with 2008...look at how low the 2008 SST's were at this time!

We are competing because 5 months ago SSTs were comparable. But over the last 5 months 2011 diverged from 2008.

[nzucker]

Agreed. I find it amazing that we're even competing with 2008...look at how low the 2008 SST's were at this time!

2008 had very low SSTs: we were coming off a low-end moderate Niño instead of a strong one, the Niña was very persistent into the early springtime, and there was a strong cold pool in the Indian Ocean compared to this season. We also didn't have the record warmth in the Atlantic that we are getting now from the peak of the natural +AMO cycle as well as nearly two years straight of -NAO conditions, which weaken the storm track over the North Atlantic, which usually is quite rough in winter (ask my mom who used to fly back and forth from England to the US as a teacher over there). Last winter's record -NAO just allowed those Atlantic waters to sit and boil. It'll be really interesting to see how the global SSTs change from here on out....we have competing tendencies in the ENSO region between potent subsurface warmth spreading east and cold waters at the surface with strong easterly trade winds at 850mb and down towards the deck. We also have the Atlantic potentially cooling a lot at a time when we might expect global SSTs values to come back to the warmer side with the Niña weakening as is the seasonal norm.

We could have a chance at approaching 2008 SSTs next year if the La Niña were to redeploy into moderate/strong status. That is really uncertain now as there are two camps on ENSO, one looking at the subsurface tendency towards Niño, the other looking at surface data such as SOI/SST as well as historical climatology which says that multi-year La Niñas often follow a strong El Niño when it dies. It's going to be a while before we have the ENSO picture clarified, as it wasn't until late May/June of the last two years that we really had any idea where we were headed. For example, there was talk of another moderate-strong Niño for Winter 10-11 around this time last year, and we know how well that worked out. If only Landscheidt were still with us...

[BethesdaWX]

Its possible we're feeling a slight effect from the solar min. Normal lag is around 2 years, however, with an extended solar min like we've had, the response can possibly get amplified some though there isn't great research yet on extended maxima or mins.

I expect the readings to rebound back above 2008 though. If they do not, it would make for some interesting analysis.

I'd take it as if we see a weak SC24/extended solar min for the next few decades, the cooling potential is far Greater(?). The 11yr solar cycle sees the minimum every 11yrs, but it is the extended solar minimums spanning decades (weak solar cycles) that have coincided with colder temperatures globally.

I've been researching the magnetic flux, as it has a fairly good correlation to the global temperatures over the past 150yrs, and have been trying to find a lag time. I've found several studies indicating a 7-10yr lag for the magnetic flux alone (not TSI), but it seems like a weakly understood area in its effects.