skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Why are you using Ryan Maue's site to plot surface temps? It not only has nothing to do with GISS, but they're usually quite far apart. No they are not. They correlate quite well after adjusting for baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Dude are you high on the mefs again?!?!? 1) FEB did avg colder than JAN! Verified... 2) This part of the Nina is colder than 2008 on AMSU.. Verified... He is 2 for 2. Yeah I mean I actually verified both parts of the forecast. We got -.02C for February compared to -.01C for January, admittedly not statistically significant but still cooler. What I was being impressed with was the continued cold trend considering the AMO and last year's ENSO. At one point, it looked as if we might get an even bigger drop, which didn't verify but was just speculation on my part. Also, I was talking about a short-term intersection with 2008, which we have achieved. I saw the spike coming in 2008 and that this year seemed to be stable or slightly dropping, so I speculated that we might see a drop below 2008 global temperatures. And we have. March may actually be the coldest month in terms of UAH anomaly if the current trend continues, since the average shows a climatological rise in early March that doesn't seem to be playing out in 2011. Still way too early to know, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah I mean I actually verified both parts of the forecast. You are a total joke. It's really quite sad how arrogant you are. A drop of .01C is a mere technicality. And when you said the coming part of the NINA would be colder (oh excuse me "may") be colder than 2008 you said the next few months... not a few days at the end of Feb. Feb averaged much warmer than 2008 on UAH and AMSU, and March and April will probably finish slightly warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 1) Yep. By .01C. "Very Impressive"!!!! 2) Umm no it is not. CH5 was .15C warmer than 2008. UAH was .2C warmer. He has already said he was talking about the next several months.. not 3 days in the end of Feb that happened to intersect the 2008 line. 1) Doesn;t change the fact Look at AMSU Aqua... Right now we are colder than 2008. He (I assume) was referring to the spike in the 2008 anoms, and how we'd end up below that. We are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You are a total joke. It's really quite sad how arrogant you are. Look who is talking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 They correlate quite well after adjusting for baseline. No they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You are a total joke. It's really quite sad how arrogant you are. This type of post shouldn't be allowed here. I wish they'd just delete the ****ty personal attacks and leave the actual content. It's amazing how you don't care at all about insulting friends when you have so few. Most people on this forum find you to be way more arrogant than I. I'm not the one who constantly criticizes and tries to prove others wrong. I was actually decent in my predictions that FEB would be cooler and that we'd hit 2008. So just leave it be...I didn't say I predicted it with 100% accuracy, and these aren't forecasts anyway, we're just chatting about short-term trends in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 1) Doesn;t change the fact Look at AMSU Aqua... Right now we are colder than 2008. He (I assume) was referring to the spike in the 2008 anoms, and how we'd end up below that. We are. He said on average over the next few months. Feb was much warmer and April and March will be warmer too. It is really despicable the two of you are so dishonest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 "Actually we're well below 2008 right now. It might be hard to retain given the tendency for 2008 to have lower SSTs" This is a direct quote...I said we might have trouble staying below 2008 and that it was a short-term analysis. I was talking about the spike in 2008 values compared to the 2011 trend line. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 . It's amazing how you don't care at all about insulting friends when you have so few. Wow.. I am putting both of you on ignore.. I am tired of feeling compelled to correct both of your lies and arrogance. And I don't need "friends" who post lies and attacks about my personal life on the internet. I have NEVER brought up anything from your personal life on here that you would not post yourself, whereas pretty much every time you get in an argument with me, you let slip some private unsavory detail about my personal life along with some sort of Freudian psychoanalysis. Or people that call me Mr. Homo and a ____sucker. I have no problem discussing anything with just about anyone else on here.. but the two of you really are quite unbearably rude, dishonest and arrogant. And there are plenty of other people who have said so dozens of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 He said on average over the next few months. Feb was much warmer and April and March will be warmer too. It is really despicable the two of you are so dishonest. what? How can you say MAR & APR will be warmer before they happen? How can you use data unlrelated to GISS to verify it when the data has yet to be released? Can you show any respect to anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Or people that call me Mr. Homo and a ____sucker. I had no intention for you to take me literally, and I apologized and told you I'd be more careful when speaking to you. Why do you keep bringing it back up? I never meant it literally, it was more joning than anything. Again.. I'm sorry about that, if I knew it'd upset you, I would not have said it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow.. I am putting both of you on ignore.. I am tired of feeling compelled to correct both of your lies and arrogance. And I don't need "friends" who post lies and attacks about my personal life on the internet. I have NEVER brought up anything from your personal life on here that you would not post yourself, whereas pretty much every time you get in an argument with me, you let slip some unsavory detail about my personal life along with some sort of Freudian psychoanalysis. Or people that call me Mr. Homo and a ____sucker. I have no problem discussing anything with just about anyone else on here.. but the two of you really are quite unbearably rude, dishonest and arrogant. And there are plenty of other people who have said so dozens of times. The only reason I made the comment is because I've asked you, as a friend, to try to respond more politely to my weather comments. And you seem to have a penchant for being so harsh, which is a bit weird when you're talking to one of your college buddies about a subject that isn't that crucial anyway. And why do you feel compelled to "correct" us? If you feel that we're going on about nothing, you don't have to be involved in the thread. No one is forcing you to participate. I don't think most people find me to be rude on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The only reason I made the comment is because I've asked you, as a friend, to try to respond more politely to my weather comments. And you seem to have a penchant for being so harsh, which is a bit weird when you're talking to one of your college buddies about a subject that isn't that crucial anyway. And why do you feel compelled to "correct" us? If you feel that we're going on about nothing, you don't have to be involved in the thread. No one is forcing you to participate. I don't think most people find me to be rude on this forum. And I have asked you the same thing dozens of times. You can continue to pretend to be all innocent but posting about other people's personal lives on the internet is a violation of trust and a place that most ordinary people don't go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 And I have asked you the same thing dozens of times. You can continue to pretend to be all innocent but posting about other people's personal lives on the internet is a violation of trust and a place that most ordinary people don't go. I'm not the one who starts these attack threads; I was actually following the protocol of this thread which is analyzing short-term variations in 2011 global temperatures, throwing out ideas and speculations as we watch the year go by. You had to jump in and once again attempt to prove that my forecasts were a bust, which you do every single time it is remotely possible. In this case, I was technically correct that February came in cooler than January and that we'd fallen below 2008, so you actually made a fool of yourself by expounding on the mistakes in my forecasts when I actually verified quite well. None of this was intended on the same level as a winter forecast, anyway, so there's no need to go back and make digs for "verification purposes"...we're just having a chat about the trends/tendencies we observe, and of course these are often consistent with the biases we hold. You can't expect someone not to respond critically when you write, "You are a total joke. It's really quite sad how arrogant you are." This is an extremely demeaning comment and typical of your approach of passive-aggressive behavior, suggesting the person is embarrassing himself/herself instead of making a direct criticism, which you don't have the guts to do. You attempt to inspire a feeling of guilt and ignorance in me, even though I believe I'm right at your intellectual level and in many ways more objective given the evolution of my personal thoughts regarding climate change and the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clifford Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A drop of .01C is a mere technicality. That is... unless you are the IPCC. In which case.... not a monthly change in temperature of 0.01 degrees Celsius... but an annual change of 0.01 degrees Celsius would spell the end of the world as we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That is... unless you are the IPCC. In which case.... not a monthly change in temperature of 0.01 degrees Celsius... but an annual change of 0.01 degrees Celsius would spell the end of the world as we know it. There's a few posters here who could use a bit of your sense of humor instead of being so anal and argumentative all the time. Seeing people nitpick to death one trivial short-term data point after another is like watching a bevy of hens attacking a pile of feed. If they were stock traders they'd have coronaries by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 it's pretty evident across-the-board cooling is going to occur in late Feb/early Mar. Here's another classic mistake that comes from focusing too much on every blip. The anomalies in the second half of Feb were warmer than the first half on CH5. I'd think Hadley comes in at like .05-1C and GISS .1-2C. We'll see how these numbers work too but I'm fairly certain they will be too low and placed too much emphasis on the late-month surface cooling. I had guessed .1-.2 and .2-.3 respectively Had and GISS. Now that the month is over, I think it might even be slightly warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You are a total joke. It's really quite sad how arrogant you are. A drop of .01C is a mere technicality. And when you said the coming part of the NINA would be colder (oh excuse me "may") be colder than 2008 you said the next few months... not a few days at the end of Feb. Feb averaged much warmer than 2008 on UAH and AMSU, and March and April will probably finish slightly warmer as well. If 2011 was "much warmer" than 2008, it was also "much cooler" than 1999. Just pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 He said on average over the next few months. Feb was much warmer and April and March will be warmer too. It is really despicable the two of you are so dishonest. Um...you really don't know that. Especially considering 2008 warmed in Mar/Apr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here's another classic mistake that comes from focusing too much on every blip. The anomalies in the second half of Feb were warmer than the first half on CH5. We'll see how these numbers work too but I'm fairly certain they will be too low and placed too much emphasis on the late-month surface cooling. I had guessed .1-.2 and .2-.3 respectively Had and GISS. Now that the month is over, I think it might even be slightly warmer than that. Across the board cooling DID occur in the late month...FEB was averaging warmer than JAN until the late month dip... we are cooling further as we speak. Ok, he's 3 for 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Um...you really don't know that. Especially considering 2008 warmed in Mar/Apr. He doesn't have to know anything, it's just so because he says it. Skier clearly has an agenda of proving that 2011 is not a "cool" year despite widespread evidence to the contrary. I find it very interesting that we're running colder than 1999; the evidence seems to be mounting that a La Niña during a low solar period has more cooling potential than otherwise...we experienced the rapid drop in global temperatures in 2008, and now again in 2011. Although SSTs are warmer than 2011, we're running pretty close in global anomaly, perhaps because of colder land anomalies due to the AO/snow cover/blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For anyone to even think about putting 2011 into one's "column" is comical. My god, even in July we'll have only 50% of the annual data; and unless it's extreme, who would bet rent money on that? Y'all should set up a poll for guessing 2011's temperature anomaly. Perhaps some of the energy spent squabbling could be shifted to the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For anyone to even think about putting 2011 into one's "column" is comical. My god, even in July we'll have only 50% of the annual data; and unless it's extreme, who would bet rent money on that? Y'all should set up a poll for guessing 2011's temperature anomaly. Perhaps some of the energy spent squabbling could be shifted to the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. There is a thread with 2011 temp predictions/guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clifford Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There is a thread with 2011 temp predictions/guesses. This IS the thread for 2011 predictions... I think. A poll, like the sea ice poll fixes a person's predictions, although there is a "Delete My Vote" option Should it be "Public" or "Anonymous"? I'm not sure about monthly predictions as the month to month variability tends to be quite high. Anybody up for a 2011 Annual poll? Seasonal? DJF (2012, too late for 2011), MAM, JJA SON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This IS the thread for 2011 predictions... I think. A poll, like the sea ice poll fixes a person's predictions, although there is a "Delete My Vote" option Should it be "Public" or "Anonymous"? I'm not sure about monthly predictions as the month to month variability tends to be quite high. Anybody up for a 2011 Annual poll? Seasonal? DJF (2012, too late for 2011), MAM, JJA SON http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9529-guess-the-2011-global-temperature-anomalies/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Across the board cooling DID occur in the late month...FEB was averaging warmer than JAN until the late month dip... we are cooling further as we speak. Ok, he's 3 for 3. The second half of the month was warmer, anomaly-wise, than the first half of the month, on the satellites. He said the opposite. This is quite apparent by fitting a trend line to CH5 anomalies for the month. The Ch5 anomalies were higher in the second half than in the first half of Feb. He also said (as did I) that "Feb would be colder than Jan. Very impressive." It wasn't, it was the same. He also said that "the next few months of this Nina may average colder than 2008".. they haven't even been close.. so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If 2011 was "much warmer" than 2008, it was also "much cooler" than 1999. Just pointing that out. Of course - wouldn't dream of suggesting otherwise. People were discussing 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The second half of the month had was warmer, anomaly-wise, than the first half of the month, on the satellites. He said the opposite. He also said that "Feb would be colder than Jan. Very impressive." It wasn't, it was the same. He also said that "the next few months of this Nina may average colder than 2008".. they haven't even been close.. so far. You need someone 1) He was referring to the spike in 2008 during this time. We are colder than 2008 right now. 2) No, it was colder. -.02 is colder than -.01...end of story. You can argue all you want that it was minor...but he Never said anything about "Major" differences...so he was right about that as well. 3) He said the next few months MAY avg colder...he didn't predict that. We've been colder than 2008 for about a week now...lets see if it continues before you make statements that will dig your ass further in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Skier clearly has an agenda of proving that 2011 is not a "cool" year despite widespread evidence to the contrary. Yep you've got me pegged. I don't even know how one would go about "proving" that the anomaly for the year is anything other than what the data shows. I've already guessed that it will be one of the coldest years of the decade. But that was just a trick... secretly I am going to disguise the cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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