2011 Global Temperatures

[Clifford]

Calculating from the posted daily temperatures on the Ryan Maue website:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/jra25/jra25_2011.html

January Daily Anomalies:

Min: -0.2774

Max: +0.175

Avg: -0.0273

February Daily Anomalies:

Min: -0.3105

Max: 0.1633

Avg: -0.076

Yes, I know the graph ends on Feb 27. He updates it once a week or so. Data calculated from the daily pages above.

[skierinvermont]

So...

Enlighten Us.

Is Water Vapor (not clouds, but gaseous vapor)....

A Greenhouse Gas (causing net warming)?

Blocks the incoming sunlight (causing net cooling)?

Seasonal in its effects, not counting the warm/cool air capacity? For example cooling in the summer, warming in the winter.

And...

Does it dwarf the effects of CO₂?

You said that "the effect of water vapor likely would be neutral" IE the cooling effect balances the warming effect. This is obviously not the case to anybody with the slightest familiarity with the atmosphere of the earth and those of other planets. Without water vapor, the earth's atmosphere would be dramatically cooler. Not even the most hard-core skeptics deny that water vapor constitutes the majority of the greenhouse effect and causes significant net warming of the earth's surface.

The effect is not "neutral."

[nzucker]

February 2011 comes in at -.02C on UAH.

Not much change from January. March may be starting a bit cooler but hard to tell at this juncture.

[tacoman25]

February 2011 comes in at -.02C on UAH.

Not much change from January. March may be starting a bit cooler but hard to tell at this juncture.

Still easily cooler than the first two months of 1999, the most comparable year from an ENSO standpoint (strong Nino to mod/strong Nina).

Jan/Feb 2011: -.01C

Jan/Feb 1999: +.08C

I think there is a good chance February comes in as the coolest month so far for the surface-based sources.

[skierinvermont]

March 2008 was significantly warmer than Jan/Feb 2008, which were by far the coldest months of that event for UAH. And it looks to me like Fe 2011 will be easily closer to Feb 2008 than Jan 2011 was to Jan 2008.

I was referring to Ch 5.. which is colder in March than in late Feb in 2008. Even though CH5 came in the same in March and April as in Feb UAH warmed in 2008 which is why you are finding different results than me (you're looking at UAH, I'm looking at CH5).

[skierinvermont]

Meanwhile, AMSU Channel 5 global temperatures are taking another dive...if this continues, we will cross 2008 and become the coldest year on the chart. February should come in colder than January on UAH if Channel 5 is accurate. Very impressive.

Some impressive dive... .01C colder than last month.

the coming part of the year may average colder than that La Niña.

Not even close in Feb. -.25 in 2008 vs -.02 in 2011. It would be virtually impossible at this point for the coming part of the year to average colder than 2008.

I don't see how the satellites are coming in toasty at all, especially if we account for the projected drop at the end of the month.

The second half of the month had a warmer anomaly than the first half on CH5. No projected dive occurred.

1) Channel 5 AMSU will finish about the same as January did.

2) UAH will come in as -.05 to -.1C (vs -.01C in January)

3) GISS will come in as .2-.3C

4) Had will come in as .1-.2C.

1) Check

2) Looks like even I was biased slightly cold in Feb for UAH. Not bad though.

[BethesdaWX]

Some impressive dive... .01C colder than last month.

Not even close in Feb. -.25 in 2008 vs -.02 in 2011. It would be virtually impossible at this point for the coming part of the year to average colder than 2008.

The second half of the month had a warmer anomaly than the first half on CH5. No projected dive occurred.

1) Check

2) Looks like even I was biased slightly cold in Feb for UAH. Not bad though.

1) Why the heck are you comparing Nzucker's post on AMSU to the final UAH anomaly? It makes no sense to do that unless you are irking for an argument. I'll give you one if you wish.

2) Your post on "toasty" readings to be measured...do I need to bring that up?

The 2008 La Nina was Much Stronger, with much colder oceans globally. This is a result of us coming out of the Strong El Nino, and a weaker La Nina in general at this point.

Now 2008

[BethesdaWX]

February 2011 comes in at -.02C on UAH.

Not much change from January. March may be starting a bit cooler but hard to tell at this juncture.

No way to tell how March will turn out, but there is good reason to presume it drops further, given global SST's are still dropping compared to the means.

[skierinvermont]

1) Why the heck are you comparing Nzucker's post on AMSU to the final UAH anomaly? It makes no sense to do that unless you are irking for an argument. I'll give you one if you wish.

2) Your post on "toasty" readings to be measured...do I need to bring that up?

1) I'm not - all of my comparisons where apples to apples. Try reading his quotes again.

2) UAH was warmer than I expected it to be. I said that it would be "toasty" relative to the surface. UAH didn't drop, the surface is likely to drop dramatically. You and Zucker have falsely accused me of this multiple times now, and each time I have gone back and shone that I said toasty relative to the surface. What you and he are doing is dishonest, intentional manipulation of what I have said.

[tacoman25]

I was referring to Ch 5.. which is colder in March than in late Feb in 2008. Even though CH5 came in the same in March and April as in Feb UAH warmed in 2008 which is why you are finding different results than me (you're looking at UAH, I'm looking at CH5).

Because UAH is the actual results. Just like RSS or GISS or HadCRU.

[skierinvermont]

Because UAH is the actual results. Just like RSS or GISS or HadCRU.

I know that.. obviously UAH and RSS are what matters in the end not CH5. You had just taken a comment of mine about Ch5 in 2008 out of context from a discussion I was having about Ch5. I don't think you realized the context of the discussion was CH5, but you are correct that UAH rises the next couple months, but CH5 does not.

[BethesdaWX]

1) I'm not - all of my comparisons where apples to apples. Try reading his quotes again.

2) UAH was warmer than I expected it to be. I said that it would be "toasty" relative to the surface. UAH didn't drop, the surface is likely to drop dramatically. You and Zucker have falsely accused me of this multiple times now, and each time I have gone back and shone that I said toasty relative to the surface. What you and he are doing is dishonest, intentional manipulation of what I have said.

I'm sorry for snapping at you, I was out of line.

However

1) I did read through his quotes, he stated IF the UAH anomaly were to correlate with what AMSU was showing, then we'd drop significantly.

2) Toasty relative to surface??? What data are you using where UAH is Warmer than GISS/Hadley?

[skierinvermont]

I'm sorry for snapping at you, I was out of line.

However

1) I did read through his quotes, he stated IF the UAH anomaly were to correlate with what AMSU was showing, then we'd drop significantly.

2) Toasty relative to surface??? What data are you using where UAH is Warmer than GISS/Hadley?

1) AMSU didn't drop. AMSU was the same as JAN. And the second half of the month was warmer than the first half instead of "diving" as he said it would.

2) You are forgetting to adjust for baselines, as usual. UAH held steady in Feb, GISS and Had will drop .2C+ probably. Hence satellite will be toasty relative to surface.

[BethesdaWX]

1) AMSU didn't drop. AMSU was the same as JAN. And the second half of the month was warmer than the first half instead of "diving" as he said it would.

2) You are forgetting to adjust for baselines, as usual. UAH held steady in Feb, GISS and Had will drop .2C+ probably. Hence satellite will be toasty relative to surface.

1) huh? He said If AMSU correlated to the final UAH for FEB, the UAH final would drop. Who said anything about JAN?

2) I'm not forgetting baselines..GISS has been warmer than UAH on the same baseline for this La Nina...why would GISS suddenly go colder? Not saying it Can't happen, but come on now, really?

[skierinvermont]

1) huh? He said If AMSU correlated to the final UAH for FEB, the UAH final would drop. Who said anything about JAN?

2) I'm not forgetting baselines..GISS has been warmer than UAH on the same baseline for this La Nina...why would GISS suddenly go colder? Not saying it Can't happen, but come on now, really?

1) AMSU didn't drop. UAH didn't drop. . Nothing dropped. He said both would drop. Neither did.

2) GISS likely will be colder than UAH this month. GISS will be between .25-.35C IMO, which will be colder than UAH after adjusting baselines. The surface dropped dramatically this month, the satellites did not. Had will be between .15-.25C IMO, which will be much colder than UAH. And this is especially surprising, given the surface has run warmer than the satellites this decade. Which is really all I was saying - the surface will drop, the satellites will not, hence the surface will be toasty relative to the satellites (compared to how they have typically compared this past decade and over the past few months).

[Clifford]

Averaging, say +0.5°C and -0.1°C temperatures will average out "warm".

The question is how long this La Niña cycle will last. It is not uncommon for them to last a couple of years (weakening and strengthening).

Looking at past cycles:

1954-1957,

1959-1962

67-68

70-71

73-76

...

99-2001

etc.

In fact, some of the longest La Niña cycles seem to follow the brief intense El Niño cycles. (98 El Niño --> 99-2001 La Niña; 83 El Niño --> 84-86 La Niña; 72 El Niño --> 73-76 La Niña).

I think I'd anticipate at least 1 more year of La Niña weather.

Thus... for the next YEAR, until summer 2012 at the earliest, relatively neutral temperatures probably in the range of -0.2°C to +0.1°C monthly average anomalies, RSS & UAH Global Surface and Sea Surface AMSU Temps.

[BethesdaWX]

1) AMSU didn't drop. UAH didn't drop. . Nothing dropped. He said both would drop. Neither did.

2) GISS likely will be colder than UAH this month. GISS will be between .25-.35C IMO, which will be colder than UAH after adjusting baselines. The surface dropped dramatically this month, the satellites did not. Had will be between .15-.25C IMO, which will be much colder than UAH. And this is especially surprising, given the surface has run warmer than the satellites this decade. Which is really all I was saying - the surface will drop, the satellites will not, hence the surface will be toasty relative to the satellites (compared to how they have typically compared this past decade).

1) This isn't the point. The point was whether UAH final would come in closer to the AMSU anom...thus showing up as a lower anom in the UAH final, since AMSU has run colder than even the usual divergence between them (UAH/AMSU).

2) Errrrrr, I keep forgetting about the New UAH baseline, I apologize. They should have left it alone. If you're using the new UAH baseline, then yes I see your point.

[nzucker]

1) AMSU didn't drop. UAH didn't drop. . Nothing dropped. He said both would drop. Neither did.

2) GISS likely will be colder than UAH this month. GISS will be between .25-.35C IMO, which will be colder than UAH after adjusting baselines. The surface dropped dramatically this month, the satellites did not. Had will be between .15-.25C IMO, which will be much colder than UAH. And this is especially surprising, given the surface has run warmer than the satellites this decade. Which is really all I was saying - the surface will drop, the satellites will not, hence the surface will be toasty relative to the satellites (compared to how they have typically compared this past decade and over the past few months).

I think you missed my use of the word "if." I said that if the drop continued on Channel 5, 2011 would come in colder than 2008. It didn't continue so the point is moot.

We are actually below 2008 right now, basically for the first time this year, looking at AMSU Channel 5. We were well above 2008 for much of January and February, so I do find the trend impressive considering we're coming off a stronger El Niño and +AMO.

I believe you often confuse my comments about ticks up and down for large-scale political commentary on global warming. This is a 2011 temperature trend thread, I'm going to be commenting on small changes in the AMSU data as well as GFS Initialization data...this isn't meant to be a discussion about the long-term AGW trend or lack thereof. You ascribe too much meaning to many of my analyses.

[skierinvermont]

I think you missed my use of the word "if." I said that if the drop continued on Channel 5, 2011 would come in colder than 2008. It didn't continue so the point is moot.

We are actually below 2008 right now, basically for the first time this year, looking at AMSU Channel 5. We were well above 2008 for much of January and February, so I do find the trend impressive considering we're coming off a stronger El Niño and +AMO.

I believe you often confuse my comments about ticks up and down for large-scale political commentary on global warming. This is a 2011 temperature trend thread, I'm going to be commenting on small changes in the AMSU data as well as GFS Initialization data...this isn't meant to be a discussion about the long-term AGW trend or lack thereof. You ascribe too much meaning to many of my analyses.

Nice try.. but that's obviously not what you were saying.

You said very specifically that

"February should come in colder than January on UAH if Channel 5 is accurate. Very impressive."

It didn't (.01C is trivial).

and that

"the coming part of this Nina may average cooler than 2008."

We were a solid .3C or something warmer than 2008 in Feb. Should continue to be somewhat warmer in March and April. Man up and admit it was wrong.

I expect you will try to squirm out of your -.1C prediction for the year as well when that fails as well..

[BethesdaWX]

Nice try.. but that's obviously not what you were saying.

You said very specifically that

"February should come in colder than January on UAH if Channel 5 is accurate. Very impressive."

and that

"the coming part of this Nina may average cooler than 2008."

Who are you to put words in peoples mouths? Are you a mind reader or a bad interpreter?

[skierinvermont]

Who are you to put words in peoples mouths? Are you a mind reader or a bad interpreter?

I didn't. Those are direct quotes

[nzucker]

Nice try.. but that's obviously not what you were saying.

You said very specifically that

"February should come in colder than January on UAH if Channel 5 is accurate. Very impressive."

It didn't (.01C is trivial).

and that

"the coming part of this Nina may average cooler than 2008."

We were a solid .3C or something warmer than 2008 in Feb. Should continue to be somewhat warmer in March and April. Man up and admit it was wrong.

I expect you will try to squirm out of your -.1C prediction for the year as well when that fails as well..

Why are you always so nasty to me? You're like the one person in this thread incapable of having a civil discussion.

The comment that February would come in cooler was made when the drop was happening; it wasn't as sustained as some expected so didn't have the impact, but the month was still cooler than January, and we have come down to 2008's level for the first time this year so I guess my idea was generally right.

Do you understand the word "may?" I didn't say it would average cooler, I said "may average cooler," meaning it might be close depending on ENSO trends etc. Again, that was looking at short-term trends on Channel 5 and attempting to make an interpretation, not making a political statement. You totally misuse this thread. This thread is not about verifying/criticizing my predictions, it's about commenting on what's happening with 2011 global temperatures. You always want to jump on me anytime you see a mistake made, but that's not the point here, these aren't forecasts just speculations and comments on short-term changes.

It's like you need to be right to feel good about yourself or something. On a weather forum. Discussing variations of hundredths of a degree in global temperature on a satellite. Sad.

[BethesdaWX]

I didn't. Those are direct quotes

Point is you take things out of context...you change the meanings...you do it with me all the time, then turn it into something completely different. It ticks me off.

Example, both of our "discussions" this evening, you've taken my statements out of context..including what I just said previously about "putting words" in others' mouths.

Your comment on surface data coming in "quite toasty"...what data have you looked at top determine surface data has been running cold?

[skierinvermont]

Why are you always so nasty to me? You're like the one person in this thread incapable of having a civil discussion.

The comment that February would come in cooler was made when the drop was happening; it wasn't as sustained as some expected so didn't have the impact, but the month was still cooler than January, and we have come down to 2008's level for the first time this year so I guess my idea was generally right.

Do you understand the word "may?" I didn't say it would average cooler, I said "may average cooler," meaning it might be close depending on ENSO trends etc. Again, that was looking at short-term trends on Channel 5 and attempting to make an interpretation, not making a political statement. You totally misuse this thread.

I am being perfectly civil. Your predictions were wrong. I think it is sad that you can't admit this. I have already admitted I predicted a bit too cold for February.

When you say as sustained "as some expected it to be" you basically mean you and Bethesda. I don't think most reasonable people expected a blip mid-month to alter the general rising trend since early January in the CH5 anomalies. I specifically said it was just a blip at the time.

We haven't come down to 2008 levels.. 2008 had a general warm period in late Feb and early March. The rest of March and April were much colder (Ch5).

Yes I understand the word "may" ... I understand that you basically preface every "forecast" of yours with this guess and if it turns out right you go trumpeting around how great a forecast it was, but if it's wrong you say "oh well I only said 'may' so it wasn't a bad forecast." Since the ENSO is 6 months lagged, we already know the relevant ENSO trends to the Feb-April period.

[skierinvermont]

Point is you take things out of context...you change the meanings...you do it with me all the time, then turn it into something completely different. It ticks me off.

Example, both of our "discussions" this evening, you've taken my statements out of context..including what I just said previously about "putting words" in others' mouths.

So when somebody says that

"February should average colder than January. Very impressive."

I should interpret this as "February will not be colder than January."

And when somebody says

"the coming part of this Nina may be colder than 2008."

I should interpret this as "The coming part of this Nina will be .1C-.3C warmer than 2008."

Got it. Thanks for clearing that up.

[BethesdaWX]

Skier, would you like me to start pointing out your errors in forecasting? I've seen alot of them from you, so now I will start trumpeting them loud and clear.

Maybe I'll add them to my sig? Nah, that'd be overkill...

[BethesdaWX]

So when somebody says that

"February should average colder than January. Very impressive"

I should interpret this as "February will not be colder than January."

And when somebody says

"the coming part of this Nina may be colder than 2008."

I should interpret this as "The coming part of this Nina will be .1C-.3C warmer than 2008."

Got it. Thanks for clearing that up.

Dude are you high on the mefs again?!?!?

1) FEB did avg colder than JAN! Verified...

2) This part of the Nina is colder than 2008 on AMSU.. Verified...

He is 2 for 2.

[skierinvermont]

Your comment on surface data coming in "quite toasty"...what data have you looked at top determine surface data has been running cold?

CFSR and JMA from Maue's site.

[BethesdaWX]

CFSR and JMA from Maue's site.

Why are you using Ryan Maue's site to plot surface temps?

It not only has nothing to do with GISS, but they're usually quite far apart.

This looks alot like GISS....

[skierinvermont]

1) FEB did avg colder than JAN! Verified...

2) This part of the Nina is colder than 2008 on AMSU.. Verified...

He is 2 for 2, you're 0 for 2.

1) Yep. By .01C. "Very Impressive"!!!!

2) Umm no it is not. CH5 was .15C warmer than 2008. UAH was .2C warmer. He has already said he was talking about the next several months.. not 3 days in the end of Feb that happened to intersect the 2008 line.