BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In terms of making a fair comparison then, yeah, you know I am a stickler about Pinatubo too. We still can't be making blanket statements about "coldest in decades" based on model projections of daily surface temperatures. You should know what I mean, aka, quote-quote, "If the GFS/ECMWF were to verify" in this case. I too believe they are overdone, but, this is a thread for 2011 global temps, and this is interesting to discuss. If they were to verify, -0.7C or lower would be a very low reading for a Moderate La Nina. A scewed, but visible shift in surface anoms will not change the -PDO base state which we entered in 2007, so while not mature, you see the +AMOs and the "Atlantic ENSO", in a sense, although its a longer term thing, but it is a player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yes I do and even if it verifies, you have nothing to compare daily surface temperatures to over the last few decades. What is the basis for your comparison? You are comparing forecasted global temperatures for next week of -.7C to what exactly to conclude that that will be "the coldest in decades." It's also a 1979-2009 baseline which means you need to add .3C when converting to the 1951-1980 baseline. Here, I'll help you 1) There is no 1951-80 baseline in Satellite temps, in case you didn't know. 2) I'm comparing this on AMSU, as far back as it goes is 2002. Click on "record lows", and it will display. Dopping the anom below -0.7C puts us in record territory. Now, if a reading of -0.7C occured in 1999,200, or 2001, we wouldn't see it admittedly. However, you need to think reasonably...this is a moderate La Nina, and a drop to -0.7C would be very low. So, either the model is overdone, or if not, then we have some issues on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Agreed. Think there is a good chance this is the coldest February in quite awhile, though. In terms of converting between the modeled/reanalysis surface T and GISS and HadCRUT I would predict something like .20-.30C on GISS, and .10-.20 on HadCRUT. If that's right, it would not surpass the .17 and .26 for Jan/Feb '08 which were the two coldest months on GISS in 2008, or the .05 and .19 on HadCRUT. I'm assuming that the end of the month finishes colder than the first half. That's just based on skimming over a comparison between this chart and GISS and HadCRUT monthly anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In terms of converting between the modeled/reanalysis surface T and GISS and HadCRUT I would predict something like .20-.30C on GISS, and .10-.20 on HadCRUT. If that's right, it would not surpass the .17 and .26 for Jan/Feb '08 which were the two coldest months on GISS in 2008, or the .05 and .19 on HadCRUT. I'm assuming that the end of the month finishes colder than the first half. That's just based on skimming over a comparison between this chart and GISS and HadCRUT monthly anomalies: Nothing you said disagrees with what I said about February. And of course I'm including satellite temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nothing you said disagrees with what I said about February. And of course I'm including satellite temps as well. I wasn't trying to. I'm just saying I think it's 50/50 if we surpass Feb '08 on GISS and Had. Prior to that we have to go back to 1994 for a cold February, which I think we have no chance of surpassing. I also don't think it will surpass other cold months besides February, like Jan 08, Jan 2000, Oct 2000. The satellites seem to be shaping up for quite a toasty February, compared to the surface. Well warmer than 2008. So much for zucker's prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I wasn't trying to. I'm just saying I think it's 50/50 if we surpass Feb '08 on GISS and Had. Prior to that we have to go back to 1994 for a cold February, which I think we have no chance of surpassing. I also don't think it will surpass other cold months besides February, like Jan 08, Jan 2000, Oct 2000. The satellites seem to be shaping up for quite a toasty February, compared to the surface. Well warmer than 2008. So much for zucker's prediction. Not really, the upcoming drop is going to freeze your toasty FEB. I'm increasingly confident we see readings dip near -0.5C by the end of the month. This using an objective approach assuming the models are significantly overblowing it. The drop has actually begun today, GFS initializing colder on Ryan Maue's site, probably overblowing the scenario at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Our current initialization is around -0.1C today, 8 day avg below -0.4C, with the coldest readings obviously at the end of the month.......trending colder still! This could be big time. Global temps drop to near -0.5C and sit there. Thats alot of Blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not really, the upcoming drop is going to freeze your toasty FEB. I'm increasingly confident we see readings dip near -0.5C by the end of the month. This using an objective approach assuming the models are significantly overblowing it. The drop has actually begun today, GFS initializing colder on Ryan Maue's site, probably overblowing the scenario at the end of the month. I said on the satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I said on the satellites. You know satellites are measuring the LT, right? GFS initializations are thus always very close to satellite, difference in between 500mb, 850mb, 100mb, etc won't change the measurement layer at hand. Your image was updated FEB17 FYI. We're currently -0.1C, we were about +0.05C FEB17. Temps will be dropping to near -0.5C in 5 days, and maybe colder beyond. Bottom Line..Febuary should come in colder than January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I said on the satellites. I don't see how the satellites are coming in toasty at all, especially if we account for the projected drop at the end of the month. Would be nice if you actually gave evidence before bashing my forecasts...looks to me as if the reading is about -.15C for the month according to your chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't see how the satellites are coming in toasty at all, especially if we account for the projected drop at the end of the month. Would be nice if you actually gave evidence before bashing my forecasts...looks to me as if the reading is about -.15C for the month according to your chart. I did post evidence I posted the following chart showing that Feb so far is at substantially warmer than Feb 08, and is equal to last month. There hasn't been a drop as you said there would be, in fact unless there is a drop Ch5 will finish warmer than last month. The forecasted drop at the end of the month is at the surface.. not in the troposphere. On timescales such as this they act completely independently perhaps even an inverse relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You know satellites are measuring the LT, right? GFS initializations are thus always very close to satellite, difference in between 500mb, 850mb, 100mb, etc won't change the measurement layer at hand. Your image was updated FEB17 FYI. We're currently -0.1C, we were about +0.05C FEB17. Temps will be dropping to near -0.5C in 5 days, and maybe colder beyond. Bottom Line..Febuary should come in colder than January The forecasted anomalies you are reporting on are for GFS 2m temps. It says so right on the charts. Ch5 has not cooled since January and in fact is warmer than it was in January on average at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Problem is, we know we're about to drop a good 0.4 - 0.5C in the upcoming 8 days, so whats the point of calling for a toasty FEB? Makes no sense when we know whats about to happen. The drop is set in stone, the issue is...will it be small on the order of 0.2 - 0.3C, or 0.5 - 0.6C? Febuary should come in colder than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The forecasted anomalies you are reporting on are for GFS 2m temps. It says so right on the charts. Ch5 has not cooled since January and in fact is warmer than it was in January on average at the moment. Uhhh, say whaa? If the 2m temps cool to an extent, the LT will cool even more. If 2M temps initialize at -0.1C, as they did today, why is GISS so warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Problem is, we know we're about to drop a good 0.4 - 0.5C in the upcoming 8 days, so whats the point of calling for a toasty FEB? Makes no sense when we know whats about to happen. The drop is set in stone, the issue is...will it be small on the order of 0.2 - 0.3C, or 0.5 - 0.6C? Febuary should come in colder than January. The drop is forecasted for the surface, not the LT. The satellites may not cool very much at all from January, they might even warm. Ch5 so far has been running the same as January, and will probably finish slightly above January. Since UAH isn't based solely on Ch5, my guess is UAH cools slightly to -.05 to -.1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Uhhh, say whaa? If the 2m temps cool to an extent, the LT will cool even more. If 2M temps initialize at -0.1C, as they did today, why is GISS so warm? Not on such short timescales they don't. Things like the AO can force cold air to the surface, while the LT remains relatively warm. We can see this quite clearly in the observational data as well... for example there was a big drop in the surface in July and August but the LT was still torching around +.5C. On such short timescales there is not a correspondence between the surface and the LT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The drop is forecasted for the surface, not the LT. The satellites may not cool very much at all from January, they might even warm. Ch5 so far has been running the same as January, and will probably finish slightly above January. Since UAH isn't based solely on Ch5, my guess is UAH cools slightly to -.05 to -.1C. You think FEB will run warmer than JAN? Ok then. If 2m cools, LT will cool even more, unless precip is falling in that vicinity. Your Map was updated FEB17th FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not on such short timescales they don't. Things like the AO can force cold air to the surface, while the LT remains relatively warm. We can see this quite clearly in the observational data as well... for example there was a big drop in the surface in July and August but the LT was still torching around +.5C. That depends on where the cooling is taking place, (aka, tropics or Mid Lattitude/Arctic). Tropical regions have alot of precip/evap cooling, often the cause.....the tropical regions was where the cooling was taking place in JUL/AUG. Mid lattitude/Arctic I find has a different response from the LT anomaly...we saw this in DEC/JAN, and should see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You think FEB will run warmer than JAN? Ok then. If 2m cools, As I've explaiened several times now, in the short term it does not work that way. We see several times when the surface cooled and the LT did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That depends on where the cooling is taking place, (aka, tropics or Mid Lattitude/Arctic). Tropical regions have alot of precip/evap cooling, often the cause.....the tropical regions was where the cooling was taking place in JUL/AUG. Mid lattitude/Arctic I find has a different response from the LT anomaly...we saw this in DEC/JAN, and should see it now. My quote above^^^ And you assume that the LT will not cool because...? This is not JUL/AUG, dynamics are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I did post evidence I posted the following chart showing that Feb so far is at substantially warmer than Feb 08, and is equal to last month. There hasn't been a drop as you said there would be, in fact unless there is a drop Ch5 will finish warmer than last month. The forecasted drop at the end of the month is at the surface.. not in the troposphere. On timescales such as this they act completely independently perhaps even an inverse relationship. I just don't consider an anomaly of -.15C "toasty." Especially when compared to all the BS about accelerating warming we've heard. We'll see if the surface drop is paralleled at the lower troposphere but it's pretty evident across-the-board cooling is going to occur in late Feb/early Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just don't consider an anomaly of -.15C "toasty." Especially when compared to all the BS about accelerating warming we've heard. We'll see if the surface drop is paralleled at the lower troposphere but it's pretty evident across-the-board cooling is going to occur in late Feb/early Mar. I said relative to the surface. But go right ahead and alter my meaning at your convenience. The surface should drop a good .1-.2C while Ch5 may actually finish the month warmer than January. Individual monthly anomalies have virtually nothing to do with projections, except in so far as they compose a tiny fraction of the long term trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My quote above^^^ And you assume that the LT will not cool because...? This is not JUL/AUG, dynamics are different. Feb and March 2009 were the warmest two months between Sept 2008 and June 2009 on UAH, and yet they were the coldest on GISS in the same 10 month period. There is no short term correspondence between the two. If anything, there is an inverse relationship in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Feb and March 2009 were the warmest two months between Sept 2008 and June 2009 on UAH, and yet they were the coldest on GISS in the same 10 month period. There is no short term correspondence between the two. If anything, there is an inverse relationship in the short term. What does my above quote have to do with GISS? Anyway...do you think FEB will come in Colder than JAN, or Warmer than JAN? I want to clear this up for future reference. JAN was right at avg (-0.01C). Really it should be +0.09C (old baseline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What does my above quote have to do with GISS? Anyway...do you think FEB will come in Colder than JAN, or Warmer than JAN? I want to clear this up for future reference. JAN was right at avg (-0.01C). Really it should be +0.09C (old baseline) I provided observations showing that in previous months the surface has frequently cooled but the LT has warmed. This happened in July 2010, and Feb/March 2009. Among numerous other examples. There is no short term correspondence between the surface and LT. I've stated my predictions multiple times in the last several hours (as well as earlier in the month). 1) Channel 5 AMSU will finish about the same as January did. 2) UAH will come in as -.05 to -.1C (vs -.01C in January) 3) GISS will come in as .2-.3C 4) Had will come in as .1-.2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I provided observations showing that in previous months the surface has frequently cooled but the LT has warmed. This happened in July 2010, and Feb/March 2009. Among numerous other examples. There is no short term correspondence between the surface and LT. I've stated my predictions multiple times in the last several hours (as well as earlier in the month). 1) Channel 5 AMSU will finish about the same as January did. 2) UAH will come in as -.05 to -.1C (vs -.01C in January) 3) GISS will come in as .2-.3C 4) Had will come in as .1-.2C. Ok then we are on the same page prediction wise. Wondering though...If the GFS/ECMWF are continuously initializing with below average surface anomalies over the past month...why is GISS always so friggin warm?! Even with the different baseline, GISS is still waaay warm compared to all model initializations. GISS should come in below avg when compared with GFS/ECMWF intializations. I doubt the model initializations are incorrect....since accurate data HAS to be present, and usually is during the initialization, so what gives? I am glad Ryan Maue is going to start plotting these initializations for historical record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I said relative to the surface. But go right ahead and alter my meaning at your convenience. The surface should drop a good .1-.2C while Ch5 may actually finish the month warmer than January. Individual monthly anomalies have virtually nothing to do with projections, except in so far as they compose a tiny fraction of the long term trend. I was just talking about the absolute numbers for the LT vs the surface, and in that case UAH is likely to come in colder than GISS/Hadley. There's no way that GISS comes in at -.1C which is what you're predicting for UAH, or even at the baseline adjusted equivalent of -.1C. I'd think Hadley comes in at like .05-1C and GISS .1-2C...I think that's why I objected to the use of the word toasty since the satellites are still going to be showing less of an anomaly globally than the surface. And second to 2008 is no mean feat given that we had a strong Niño and record high +AMO. Truce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I was just talking about the absolute numbers for the LT vs the surface, and in that case UAH is likely to come in colder than GISS/Hadley. There's no way that GISS comes in at -.1C which is what you're predicting for UAH, or even at the baseline adjusted equivalent of -.1C. I'd think Hadley comes in at like .05-1C and GISS .1-2C...I think that's why I objected to the use of the word toasty since the satellites are still going to be showing less of an anomaly globally than the surface. And second to 2008 is no mean feat given that we had a strong Niño and record high +AMO. Truce? It's different baselines. They are completely uncomparable. You need to subtract ~.27C from HadCRUT to get to the UAH baseline. So if HadCRUT comes in at .1C and UAH comes in at -.05C as I have suggested... then the satellites will be toasty compared to the surface. This becomes even more true if we use a 2000-2010 baseline which is more indicative of how the surface and satellites have compared recently. The surface will drop a lot in Feb.. the satellites won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ok then we are on the same page prediction wise. Wondering though...If the GFS/ECMWF are continuously initializing with below average surface anomalies over the past month...why is GISS always so friggin warm?! Even with the different baseline, GISS is still waaay warm compared to all model initializations. GISS should come in below avg when compared with GFS/ECMWF intializations. I doubt the model initializations are incorrect....since accurate data HAS to be present, and usually is during the initialization, so what gives? I am glad Ryan Maue is going to start plotting these initializations for historical record. Much of the difference is that the GFS initialization maps on Maue's website use a 1979-2010 baseline. Then there is the fact that there is a lot of variability within a month. Even though we might dip to -.6C or something, it jumps around a lot and goes through wild swings so no single month finishes anywhere near -.6C. GFS and ECMWF model initializations show more of a warming trend than HadCRUT or GISS over the last 30 years. I suppose now you will retract your statement about them being accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's different baselines. They are completely uncomparable. You need to subtract ~.27C from HadCRUT to get to the UAH baseline. So if HadCRUT comes in at .1C and UAH comes in at -.05C as I have suggested... then the satellites will be toasty compared to the surface. This becomes even more true if we use a 2000-2010 baseline which is more indicative of how the surface and satellites have compared recently. The surface will drop a lot in Feb.. the satellites won't. What baseline is Hadley on? Is it the same as GISS (1951-1980)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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