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SNE obs and discussion/banter

AmyB

By AmyB,
in New England

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grinch1989

grinch1989

Posted
Posted

Hopefully a lot of you grabbed any old images or links that went to you via PM. It's a shame that Marcus made a decision to screw all 12,000 people..many of which weren't mets and probably had stuff saved so they can learn. That's what irks me.

My gut says he opens it up again as read only for a limited time in the future...complete speculation...

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Oh, well screw Dryslot then.

haha .. just kidding!

Oh, met on Channel 13 just mentioned snow possibility next week.

Solid! Its getting to be that time. Im in NYC this weekend enjoying the sights and its back to Bridgton this Monday, with my car thank god!!! Then home for a week for thanksgiving. We just need to snow to come before I leave.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

My gut says he opens it up again as read only for a limited time in the future...complete speculation...

I hope so. I'm a very level headed guy, but so many people come here to learn, and to shut a source like eastern down without a word to anybody is just horrifically childish. Hopefully, if he has any sense if dignity, he'll open it back up.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

saw unstoppable in westborough mass 32 degrees ! came back to apt in framingham on top of hill and it's 39.

1'st storm wednesday tracked 150 miles NW to green mountain from 12z bench mark track......but the bonus is the miller b on it's heels appears closer to the coast now. C'mon give us a nice 3-6 to start things proper.

where's CT Blizz (y) to lock things up

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

TORCH on tjhe euro 10 day wowww

Yeah but it's about to bring in the motherlode of cold...look at the huge -NAO that is forming, that would be an extremely favorable pattern after the front gets through. Very interesting developments with the NAO despite a strong La Niña; it is holding its ground which could make this winter more interesting up and down the East Coast than one would expect given ENSO.

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

Yeah but it's about to bring in the motherlode of cold...look at the huge -NAO that is forming, that would be an extremely favorable pattern after the front gets through. Very interesting developments with the NAO despite a strong La Niña; it is holding its ground which could make this winter more interesting up and down the East Coast than one would expect given ENSO.

cold doesnt get here til december or close to it like ive been saying for a while...well the real cold anyway. lock it

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Yeah but it's about to bring in the motherlode of cold...look at the huge -NAO that is forming, that would be an extremely favorable pattern after the front gets through. Very interesting developments with the NAO despite a strong La Niña; it is holding its ground which could make this winter more interesting up and down the East Coast than one would expect given ENSO.

That is a very nice looking east-based -NAO block and the Day 7 of the euro has some pretty impressive 850 temps building up in Canada, as long as we can get that -NAO hopefully that helps in bringing some of it down, even if it happens in stages.

Are you worried though that the state of the PNA/EPO could allow for the SE ridge to remain in place and end up keeping the coldest weather off to our west?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

That is a very nice looking east-based -NAO block and the Day 7 of the euro has some pretty impressive 850 temps building up in Canada, as long as we can get that -NAO hopefully that helps in bringing some of it down, even if it happens in stages.

Are you worried though that the state of the PNA/EPO could allow for the SE ridge to remain in place and end up keeping the coldest weather off to our west?

The ECM looks fairly cold for next weekend with most of SNE and NYC metro being around -4C 850s for a few days, so that would definitely be below average temperatures, although the longevity of the cold probably isn't sufficient for a major snow threat.

It's pretty clear the coldest anomalies are going to be in the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies; that's just the reality of the pattern and probably won't change too much unless the NAO block becomes extremely west-based. I think some hints of the SE ridge will remain, but this gradient pattern could actually be decent for snow in NNE and maybe some of the favored locations of SNE like ORH and the Berkshires. It would be hard for NYC to get snow this early from a gradient pattern unless that SE ridge gets completely eliminated, which is getting closer to reality on the Day 10 ECM as the blocking builds towards the West Coast and the NAO becomes stronger. That looks like a mega-cold dump coming on the ECM...sure the Northern Plains and Mountain West would get the best stuff, but it could still hit the East Coast with some impressive temps. I'm hoping the NAO can bleed west once that front gets through and then set the stage for a Miller B threat. That's just an insane Greenland block with 582dm heights and 850s nearing +10C.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The ECM looks fairly cold for next weekend with most of SNE and NYC metro being around -4C 850s for a few days, so that would definitely be below average temperatures, although the longevity of the cold probably isn't sufficient for a major snow threat.

It's pretty clear the coldest anomalies are going to be in the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies; that's just the reality of the pattern and probably won't change too much unless the NAO block becomes extremely west-based. I think some hints of the SE ridge will remain, but this gradient pattern could actually be decent for snow in NNE and maybe some of the favored locations of SNE like ORH and the Berkshires. It would be hard for NYC to get snow this early from a gradient pattern unless that SE ridge gets completely eliminated, which is getting closer to reality on the Day 10 ECM as the blocking builds towards the West Coast and the NAO becomes stronger. That looks like a mega-cold dump coming on the ECM...sure the Northern Plains and Mountain West would get the best stuff, but it could still hit the East Coast with some impressive temps. I'm hoping the NAO can bleed west once that front gets through and then set the stage for a Miller B threat. That's just an insane Greenland block with 582dm heights and 850s nearing +10C.

Yeah that cold shot we do get looks pretty impressive, I definitely don't doubt that but looks like it's rather short-lived than we get into somewhat of a zonal type flow and the Arctic air gets shoved northward and westward a bit. The type of pattern that sets up though looks like it could be pretty good for some overrunning events and NNE can benefit quite well from those, even locations like ORH. Wind trajectory would also play a huge role as sometimes valley areas are able to keep the LL cold air locked in longer.

I've also been a little mixed up the past few days, I was hoping for more of an east-based NAO block but in this case we would want more of a west-based block, like you said. that would be perfect for us given where that cold air looks to build up in Canada...the west-based block would allow the cold air to spill right into the Northeast rather than the Plains and this block would also help to suppress the SE ridge...at least for the time being.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Yeah that cold shot we do get looks pretty impressive, I definitely don't doubt that but looks like it's rather short-lived than we get into somewhat of a zonal type flow and the Arctic air gets shoved northward and westward a bit. The type of pattern that sets up though looks like it could be pretty good for some overrunning events and NNE can benefit quite well from those, even locations like ORH. Wind trajectory would also play a huge role as sometimes valley areas are able to keep the LL cold air locked in longer.

I've also been a little mixed up the past few days, I was hoping for more of an east-based NAO block but in this case we would want more of a west-based block, like you said. that would be perfect for us given where that cold air looks to build up in Canada...the west-based block would allow the cold air to spill right into the Northeast rather than the Plains and this block would also help to suppress the SE ridge...at least for the time being.

The 0z ECM shows that the block is retrograding westward as we get towards Thanksgiving. It originally forms over the tip of SE Greenland and then moves more towards the Ice Sheet and starts to get into Baffin Bay. It's so intense that almost no one in Greenland would have 850s <-10C. This is when I expect the pattern to become more favorable for the East as the cold air starts to pour down on the backside of the block, behind the inevitable cutter that is going to come between the first moderate cold shot and the more severe arctic outbreak. I think this would be a great pattern for snow although I'd like to see a bit less of a -PNA and shift the block over the GoA a bit east into more of a traditional +PNA/-EPO set-up. Overall, though, I'm very pleased with where we're headed.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Is that 48* reading at ORH real? The time stamp says yes, but the link to the ORH history is not functioning. I see a couple 40's in Tolland and Storrs, so perhaps it's accurate.

Meanwhile, I'm hanging in there with Windsor and Adams with my 37.8.

Still eager to hear why the forecasted temps last night were a total bust.

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