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SNE obs and discussion/banter


AmyB

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Some good rains here already.. and this is before the good stuff was supposed to arrive anyways. Getting very excited for some kayaking this week with the higher rivers finally... they've been low all summer and fall and this one should finally bring them up to a good level as the groundwater has built back up already. Hoping for 1"+ to really get things going scooter.gif

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Some good rains here already.. and this is before the good stuff was supposed to arrive anyways. Getting very excited for some kayaking this week with the higher rivers finally... they've been low all summer and fall and this one should finally bring them up to a good level as the groundwater has built back up already. Hoping for 1"+ to really get things going scooter.gif

Ugh, who the heck cares about heavy rain?

I had to drive around Westchester tonight and I was hydroplaning all over the place on the Saw Mill...brutal.

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Ugh, who the heck cares about heavy rain?

I had to drive around Westchester tonight and I was hydroplaning all over the place on the Saw Mill...brutal.

I am starting to appreciate other kinds of weather besides snow and cold.. I've gotten into wind and thunderstorms, now I'm moving onto rain. Although I've always enjoyed a good flood.. now even a half inch of rain is precious.

Still not a big fan of big heat waves in practice (although I like all extremes from an observational point of view).

This event is shaping up at or better than expectations so far.. the first band dropped a good .25" across most of the state I think already, and the second band is filling in nicely off the delmarva.

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Hope you wear a wetsuit. LOL I went kayaking one last time before putting them away. This was Sunday on the Schoharie Creek near here and I recorded a water temp. of 43F. You wouldn't really want to take an unexpected plunge into the water this late in the season.

Some good rains here already.. and this is before the good stuff was supposed to arrive anyways. Getting very excited for some kayaking this week with the higher rivers finally... they've been low all summer and fall and this one should finally bring them up to a good level as the groundwater has built back up already. Hoping for 1"+ to really get things going scooter.gif

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Hope you wear a wetsuit. LOL I went kayaking one last time before putting them away. This was Sunday on the Schoharie Creek near here and I recorded a water temp. of 43F. You wouldn't really want to take an unexpected plunge into the water this late in the season.

I'm not sure it's that cold down here yet.. the water was cold but not icy last weekend, maybe upper 40s? I'm thinking of buying one if I keep this up.

You must have some good kayaking up there. Were you doing the whitewater section of the Schoharie? I see there are some class III sections.

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SEE TEXT!!!!!

day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/STRONG POLAR JET...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY RACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...SAVE A GRADUALLY OCCLUDING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PUSHES OFFSHORE ATTENDANT TO THE COLD FRONT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A STRONGLY FORCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE ONGOING/RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...PROBABLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ/EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY/MID MORNING. APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. HOWEVER...ROBUST EARLY DAY MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH AN APPRECIABLE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND FLOW ALOFT /ACCENTUATED BY 50 KT FLOW AROUND 1-2 KM/...WILL YIELD A SCENARIO CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/AT LEAST NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST PROBABLE WITH ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR UPDRAFTS VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CG LIGHTNING...WITHIN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE MODE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE/SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

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Been pouring here off and on all night. I wonder how much rain we've gotten, I'd definitely say over 0.50''...maybe close to an inch?

Going to get some sleep for a few hours...HOPEFULLY I don't miss the thunderstorms, should they hold together. I'll put my MP3 player on sleep mode so it shuts down in a few hours so if anything happens I can hear it.

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Hell of a wild night here.......winds howling all night with squally heavy rains.....looks like another line with some embedded convection should rip through in an hour or so.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 743 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

CTC001-007-009-011-171200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0743.101117T0840Z-101117T1200Z/

CT
.    CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD            MIDDLESEX   		NEW HAVEN
NEW LONDON
$

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
CTC001-009-NYC079-119-171015-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0097.101117T0926Z-101117T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
 WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
 FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
 PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 515 AM EST...

* AT 424 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
 LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
 FROM 24 MILES WEST OF FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK TO 23 MILES WEST OF
 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS TO 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...
 MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
 MAHOPAC...MOUNT KISCO...CARMEL...LAKE CARMEL...BEDFORD...
 BREWSTER...DARIEN...NEW CANAAN...RIDGEFIELD...DANBURY...WILTON...
 WESTPORT...WATERBURY...TRUMBULL...STRATFORD...SOUTHBURY...
 SHELTON...SEYMOUR...ORANGE...NORWALK...NEWTOWN...NAUGATUCK...
 MONROE...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...FAIRFIELD...DERBY...BRIDGEPORT...
 BETHEL AND BEACON FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

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45/44 here.

Just got back from Cambridge (sadly for Grandma's funeral - 101 years old!) and had a really foggy ride back.

However, sun was out for the outdoor part of the ceremony and temps in the mid 50's.

I was amazed that trees in Cambridge and Boston (Arnold Arboretum/Forest Hills) still had quite a few leaves and some really nice color still. Felt like October there compared to W. Ma.

I'm sorry for your loss, Chris. 101 years old--she had quite a run. I hope you and your family are holding up well.

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Quite the rainy morning. As of 4:45, there's .82" since midnight; .93" on the storm. As it's raining heavily, those numbers reported now are really fluid (no pun intended).

I like the look of that line approaching the Hudson. Hope it holds and passes through here! Hope Wiz can see the warches/warnings that are up and cash in on something good. Also, nice to see that wind advisory up with gusts to 50mph (55mph in the ZFP)..

45.5/44.

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