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SNE obs and discussion/banter

AmyB

By AmyB,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I've always thought of an east-based NAO being Iceland/Ireland. Wrong?

Well my thinking is more of a ridge poking into Greenland from the south of southeast. It's not necessarily east based, but adjusted more to the east if you catch my drift. I just don't want to see it go too far west..like into eastern Canada and Labrador. Perhaps if Canada is very cold, it won't have the result as last year, but it can be a problem if it is too far west.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

Well my thinking is more of a ridge poking into Greenland from the south of southeast. It's not necessarily east based, but adjusted more to the east if you catch my drift. I just don't want to see it go too far west..like into eastern Canada and Labrador. Perhaps if Canada is very cold, it won't have the result as last year, but it can be a problem if it is too far west.

Gotcha.     I missed the  context of how you were describing the current pattern. 

I  have read a lot of east based/west based thoughts in the past few months and when I think of east based NAO,  I think of 3 years ago.    IIRC,  07-08 had awesome blocking but it was mostly over Europe, which pretty much f***** everyone SW of us partly because of the spacing.

I would consider Greenland blocking dead centered -NAO if the measurements are infact an avg of heights between Greenland and Azores. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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My guess is that this winter will feature a sharp gradient somewhere along the OH Valley and into New England/northern Mid Atlantic. Could be further nw...could be a little more se, but that's my guess. There's no doubt I will be walking the line at times, while you rip S+. The one saving grace will be any blocking up by Greenland. If we have that, than we could cash in at times down here, but I'm sure that won't be a daily feature..that is the Greenland ridge. Even if we do have a -nao, the se ridge could flex in response to west coast troughing, and enough warm air floods in aloft for an ice event for the interior and rain at the coast. That is very possible. There are other ways of staying cold, that I know Will talked about. A nice PV near Hudson Bay would keep southern Canada and New England cold, while sending shortwaves around the base of the trough to keep the storms coming. Everything is speculation of course. The NAO could flip + for a while and the west coast trough pumps up the se ridge and storms now cut through NY State. That may very well happen too.

It is encouraging to see how the NAO has been solidly (-)for months and months. It is debatable whether we have entered a -nao decadal trend, but clearly something has been keeping the base state negative. Well see how it responds to a strong Nina jet impinging on it. Fingers crossed it holds for a good part of the time.

K, I know we can still do well here even with a neutral/+ Nao in this type of La Ninia patern ala 2008 albeit it was weaker then this one is progged, The only thing that could potentialy become a fly in the ointment here but prob benifits you guys down that way is if it becomes strongly negative and we end up in the block like last year wheras most storms ended up skirting east of the BM leaving us for the most part high and dry sitting with our stale Maritime air....

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Posted

Well my thinking is more of a ridge poking into Greenland from the south of southeast. It's not necessarily east based, but adjusted more to the east if you catch my drift. I just don't want to see it go too far west..like into eastern Canada and Labrador. Perhaps if Canada is very cold, it won't have the result as last year, but it can be a problem if it is too far west.

P/C calls for 53*, ZFP "low 50's".

Might be tough to achieve with 43.5 at 10:00a.m. and conditions what they are.and will trend toward. Yesterday busted by 7* I think......hopefully that will be the trend as we head into winter!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Gotcha. I missed the context of how you were describing the current pattern.

I have read a lot of east based/west based thoughts in the past few months and when I think of east based NAO, I think of 3 years ago. IIRC, 07-08 had awesome blocking but it was mostly over Europe, which pretty much f***** everyone SW of us partly because of the spacing.

I would consider Greenland blocking dead centered -NAO if the measurements are infact an avg of heights between Greenland and Azores.

I'd say in general, if blocking occurs near Iceland or well west into Quebec, it's probably not good for us.

I think it's also somewhat difficult to generalize the NAO and say "well if this occurs, then that will happen"...etc. You got to look at the big picture and see how everything is setting up, in terms of where the blocks are located. Perhaps a favorable nao setup for sne means crap, if we have a monster -pna. Or vice-versa. Raging + nao, but the Pacific decides to dump the arctic into Hudson Bay. In that case, a +nao could rip the cold back southeast into Quebec, like it did in '07/'08.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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K, I know we can still do well here even with a neutral/+ Nao in this type of La Ninia patern ala 2008 albeit it was weaker then this one is progged, The only thing that could potentialy become a fly in the ointment here but prob benifits you guys down that way is if it becomes strongly negative and we end up in the block like last year wheras most storms ended up skirting east of the BM leaving us for the most part high and dry sitting with our stale Maritime air....

I wouldn't worry about that at all right now. Sure, maybe there is a storm that hits sne pretty good and leaves you with cirrus, but every winter has that. I'd feel pretty good where you are.

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dryslot

dryslot

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I'd say in general, if blocking occurs near Iceland or well west into Quebec, it's probably not good for us.

I think it's also somewhat difficult to generalize the NAO and say "well if this occurs, then that will happen"...etc. You got to look at the big picture and see how everything is setting up, in terms of where the blocks are located. Perhaps a favorable nao setup for sne means crap, if we have a monster -pna. Or vice-versa. Raging + nao, but the Pacific decides to dump the arctic into Hudson Bay. In that case, a +nao could rip the cold back southeast into Quebec, like it did in '07/'08.

Over the long haul it seems we are going to need some type of help from the pac west and GOA at some point this winter to try to break down that SE ridge if we don't get the nao to cooperate from greenland

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't worry about that at all right now. Sure, maybe there is a storm that hits sne pretty good and leaves you with cirrus, but every winter has that. I'd feel pretty good where you are.

No i do feel good, Don't get me wrong, I think we are fine here because of our location, Its you guys down that way that are more walking the line for sure especially in the swfe events depending on track.....

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Over the long haul it seems we are going to need some type of help from the pac west and GOA at some point this winter to try to break down that SE ridge if we don't get the nao to cooperate from greenland

The se ridge means exponentially less up by your way. I think as long as we have enough ridging into AK and the cold stays in Canada, you're all set. Down here, we need some more help, but still not nearly the help areas south of 40N need. Of course, everything could go to hell for a month and we all torch, but at least your area becomes much more torch resistant in Ninas.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

North trends happen in Nin'a more than any other type of winter. Sometimes they trend too far north..and are good only for NNE.

Elevation plays little role in Nina winters. It's all about latiude. Just hope wherever you live you are far enough north for the overall battle zone. Hopefully it sets up near and south of NYC the majority of the time

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radarman

radarman

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Posted

From what I understand, elevation won't mean as much in this type of regime.

I agree, although I might be fooling myself as it always seems to matter. Seems like with the heavy gradient pattern, the low level cold will be more favorable while the upper levels are marginal. Plus, in the valley we always do better (relatively) with overrunning than the big coastals. Less downsloping effects, last year case in point.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

North trends happen in Nin'a more than any other type of winter. Sometimes they trend too far north..and are good only for NNE.

Elevation plays little role in Nina winters. It's all about latiude. Just hope wherever you live you are far enough north for the overall battle zone. Hopefully it sets up near and south of NYC the majority of the time

That would be to far south for us here but would be ideal for you, More times then not i have seen where they end up further north then modeled.....

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free_man

free_man

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Posted

I agree, although I might be fooling myself as it always seems to matter.  Seems like with the heavy gradient pattern, the low level cold will be more favorable while the upper levels are marginal.  Plus, in the valley we always do better (relatively) with overrunning than the big coastals.  Less downsloping effects, last year case in point.

SWFE are the only events we jackpot  with here near MHT.    South flow ftw,  we really wring out the moisture nicely.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

Yes, swfe.....ftw, I don't get as much coastal influence in these type of storm setups..... :snowman:

Oh I mixed CTBlizzs comment and yours up, sorry.  LOL  

Yeah,  SWFE do seem to be modeled too far south initially.    It seems like most of the model chaos is from the PAC or W CONUS side and timing the s/ws in the progressive flow that allows the SWFE 

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