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SNE obs and discussion/banter

AmyB

By AmyB,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Well i will take it as a possible threat if the ensembles have it, But the op has a bomb @384 every day.......lol

It's not that the ensembles have it, it's just that the overall pattern looks promising for something. Recall, that last year looked promising for three months, and we all know how that ended up...lol, so obviously nothing is guaranteed. We do have quite the monster -nao, but this time around the se ridge will probably try fight off the tendency for things getting suppressed. Just something to watch, that's all you really can do at this point.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
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I wish we could just fast forward to Thanksgiving and beyond. The next 10 days are going to craaawwwwl.

No ****e. Everything, including conservative mets from Dorchester, is pointing to big things going down as the last morsels of cranberry sauce are going down our collective gullets. :snowman:

Pete, we missed you and the updates from the distant interior. Get your crap together.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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No ****e. Everything, including conservative mets from Dorchester, is pointing to big things going down as the last morsels of cranberry sauce are going down our collective gullets. :snowman:

Pete, we missed you and the updates from the distant interior. Get your crap together.

He probably lost bandwidth since 1 wire connects the whole town.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I thought Pete said he does have it delivered to his house? He used to have dial-up.

Maybe they hooked West Chesterfield up. Man, he gets all the luxuries.

They had an article in the paper that three more towns MAY get wired for DSL in the next year or so. Guess it's not a high priority as it presents a financial loss to Verizon (or Comcast for internet and cable) to make inroads out here.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Maybe they hooked West Chesterfield up. Man, he gets all the luxuries.

They had an article in the paper that three more towns MAY get wired for DSL in the next year or so. Guess it's not a high priority as it presents a financial loss to Verizon (or Comcast for internet and cable) to make inroads out here.

They'll get their money eventually, if they make inroads out there. Boston right now can't have FIOS due to some sort of "handshake" that the city has with Comcast. Mumbles Menino won't budge.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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They'll get their money eventually, if they make inroads out there. Boston right now can't have FIOS due to some sort of "handshake" that the city has with Comcast. Mumbles Menino won't budge.

They might be using funds from the "stimulus" to grease the wheels. I'd say that's money better spent than the riduclous widening of Rt. 2 between Orange and Athol. What a colossal waste that is. I drove the 7 mile stretch last week during "rush hour": I passed 48 cars coming in the other direction. And there were two others in sight on my east-bound side.

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dryslot

dryslot

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It's not that the ensembles have it, it's just that the overall pattern looks promising for something. Recall, that last year looked promising for three months, and we all know how that ended up...lol, so obviously nothing is guaranteed. We do have quite the monster -nao, but this time around the se ridge will probably try fight off the tendency for things getting suppressed. Just something to watch, that's all you really can do at this point.

Ok, Well at some point hopefully, We can get that ridge to relax some, We really don't need another winter of cutters, With the Nao being strongly in the tank should help matters but i agree there could be a very sharp gradient wheras the ones south of there certainly won't be happy, Where it sets up is the million dollar question here, Someone will be on the fence, And lets hope its south of you guys down there.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Ok, Well at some point hopefully, We can get that ridge to relax some, We really don't need another winter of cutters, With the Nao being strongly in the tank should help matters but i agree there could be a very sharp gradient wheras the ones south of there certainly won't be happy, Where it sets up is the million dollar question here, Someone will be on the fence, And lets hope its south of you guys down there.

I hope so as well, but I worry about that too. I'm hoping the NAO will be more east based, like into Greenland. IMO that is better for us, because it ensures colder air from Hudson Bay. If you have a very west based -nao, the cold goes from western Canada, through the Plains and into the Mid Atlantic and south....ala last winter. This is modified cold, and also poses a risk from torching in eastern Canada with all that maritime flow.

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dryslot

dryslot

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I hope so as well, but I worry about that too. I'm hoping the NAO will be more east based, like into Greenland. IMO that is better for us, because it ensures colder air from Hudson Bay. If you have a very west based -nao, the cold goes from western Canada, through the Plains and into the Mid Atlantic and south....ala last winter. This is modified cold, and also poses a risk from torching in eastern Canada with all that maritime flow.

I will be the 1st one to tell you we do not need a maritime flow after last jan fleecing, Do you think with the setup that we are looking at right now if it holds for the 1st part of winter that we will be looking at a continued sharp gradient pattern temp wise? It just seems to me that some of you guys down that way could get F**ked with this setup.....

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free_man

free_man

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I hope so as well, but I worry about that too. I'm hoping the NAO will be more east based, like into Greenland. IMO that is better for us, because it ensures colder air from Hudson Bay. If you have a very west based -nao, the cold goes from western Canada, through the Plains and into the Mid Atlantic and south....ala last winter. This is modified cold, and also poses a risk from torching in eastern Canada with all that maritime flow.

I've always thought of an east-based NAO being Iceland/Ireland.    Wrong?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Ok, Well at some point hopefully, We can get that ridge to relax some, We really don't need another winter of cutters, With the Nao being strongly in the tank should help matters but i agree there could be a very sharp gradient wheras the ones south of there certainly won't be happy, Where it sets up is the million dollar question here, Someone will be on the fence, And lets hope its south of you guys down there.

From what I understand, elevation won't mean as much in this type of regime. Hopefully it'll at least help a little if the N/S gradient runs above me (or anyone else with some degree of elevation).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I will be the 1st one to tell you we do not need a maritime flow after last jan fleecing, Do you think with the setup that we are looking at right now if it holds for the 1st part of winter that we will be looking at a continued sharp gradient pattern temp wise? It just seems to me that some of you guys down that way could get F**ked with this setup.....

My guess is that this winter will feature a sharp gradient somewhere along the OH Valley and into New England/northern Mid Atlantic. Could be further nw...could be a little more se, but that's my guess. There's no doubt I will be walking the line at times, while you rip S+. The one saving grace will be any blocking up by Greenland. If we have that, than we could cash in at times down here, but I'm sure that won't be a daily feature..that is the Greenland ridge. Even if we do have a -nao, the se ridge could flex in response to west coast troughing, and enough warm air floods in aloft for an ice event for the interior and rain at the coast. That is very possible. There are other ways of staying cold, that I know Will talked about. A nice PV near Hudson Bay would keep southern Canada and New England cold, while sending shortwaves around the base of the trough to keep the storms coming. Everything is speculation of course. The NAO could flip + for a while and the west coast trough pumps up the se ridge and storms now cut through NY State. That may very well happen too.

It is encouraging to see how the NAO has been solidly (-)for months and months. It is debatable whether we have entered a -nao decadal trend, but clearly something has been keeping the base state negative. Well see how it responds to a strong Nina jet impinging on it. Fingers crossed it holds for a good part of the time.

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