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SNE obs and discussion/banter

AmyB

By AmyB,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Thx.....board issues were plaguing my PC for a protracted period of time.

Yeah I couldn't get on from late last night until this afternoon, I just did some stuff with my DNS or something.

I followed some instructions on dabenchamrk and fixed the issue.

Went to notepad, right clicked on it, ran it as administrator, then opened through the c drive window, then system32, then drivers, then etc then hosts and typed in a couple lines into the notepad and saved then it worked.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

'64-'65, '70-'71, '75-'76, '07-'08.

70-71 had an insane gradient....less than 20" in NYC, 57" in BOS, 140" in BTV. Snowiest winter ever for much of NNE, Upstate NY like Albany, and Quebec. The weather was cold here for most of the winter but not at all snowy. Burlington had below average temperatures for every single month of the winter, including March, with a severely -NAO. That was also the time period when we had a lot of cold anomalies in the eastern Canadian Arctic, which probably helped keep NNE cool; that's certainly not the case today. The winters of 68-69, 69-70, and 70-71 were all cold.

64-65 was fairly cold too but just didn't have the snow.

75-76 was only 44" in Boston but we got totally screwed. The winter actually started out with some decent cold air...you mentioned the MJO wave in January 1976 as a mechanism for the cold pattern early, but then it switched around to an awfully mild pattern like 89-90. Most of the CONUS torched that winter though, and I'm not expecting the Northern Plains and Rockies to be as warm this year as they were in 75-76.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

70-71 had an insane gradient....less than 20" in NYC, 57" in BOS, 140" in BTV. Snowiest winter ever for much of NNE, Upstate NY like Albany, and Quebec. The weather was cold here for most of the winter but not at all snowy. Burlington had below average temperatures for every single month of the winter, including March, with a severely -NAO. That was also the time period when we had a lot of cold anomalies in the eastern Canadian Arctic, which probably helped keep NNE cool; that's certainly not the case today. The winters of 68-69, 69-70, and 70-71 were all cold.

64-65 was fairly cold too but just didn't have the snow.

75-76 was only 44" in Boston but we got totally screwed. The winter actually started out with some decent cold air...you mentioned the MJO wave in January 1976 as a mechanism for the cold pattern early, but then it switched around to an awfully mild pattern like 89-90. Most of the CONUS torched that winter though, and I'm not expecting the Northern Plains and Rockies to be as warm this year as they were in 75-76.

Boston actually had 46.6" in '75-'76. Not 44", minor difference, but it was decent there.

I have yet to see a decent argument from you that SNE would see a horrible winter (like the late 90s) and not a decent winter like the ones I posted. I've continually posted that a bad December usually means a bad winter for SNE in a mod/Strong Nina. Yet, this December looks like it might be okay, and you keep poo-pooing on any SNE snow chances.

Yes I know you live south, but give me a reason other than you do not want to see Boston get a lot of snow as to why this winter is going to really suck here.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Boston actually had 46.6" in '75-'76. Not 44", minor difference, but it was decent there.

I have yet to see a decent argument from you that SNE would see a horrible winter (like the late 90s) and not a decent winter like the ones I posted. I've continually posted that a bad December usually means a bad winter for SNE in a mod/Strong Nina. Yet, this December looks like it might be okay, and you keep poo-pooing on any SNE snow chances.

Yes I know you live south, but give me a reason other than you do not want to see Boston get a lot of snow as to why this winter is going to really suck here.

Not sure if you had a chance to read his winter outlook he posted but he basically explained his reasons why and actually him and I have similar thoughts on the winter.

I do think it will suck here in SNE...although it will be better for you and for Bos where I think it will be much closer to average, I think I'm actually a little higher with snowfall than he is for both you and BOS but not by much.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Not sure if you had a chance to read his winter outlook he posted but he basically explained his reasons why and actually him and I have similar thoughts on the winter.

I do think it will suck here in SNE...although it will be better for you and for Bos where I think it will be much closer to average, I think I'm actually a little higher with snowfall than he is for both you and BOS but not by much.

Oh I read his winter outlook. I know what he is forecasting. And you are being being very deceptive if you say "I think it will suck for SNE" and then say it will be good for BOS/ORH.....those are the two largest cities in all of New England. ORH is bigger than your hometown of Hartford. So if BOS/ORH come in above average, then its pretty good for SNE even if HFD and PVD are below average.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Oh I read his winter outlook. I know what he is forecasting. And you are being being very deceptive if you say "I think it will suck for SNE" and then say it will be good for BOS/ORH.....those are the two largest cities in all of New England. ORH is bigger than your hometown of Hartford. So if BOS/ORH come in above average, then its pretty good for SNE even if HFD and PVD are below average.

I'll just have to chose my wording more carefully. It'll be decent for SNE, except down in CT/RI where it will suck.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'll just have to chose my wording more carefully. It'll be decent for SNE, except down in CT/RI where it will suck.

You are quite confused Paul.

You might have to team up with Zucker's knee high socks the first warning criteria event we have this winter. Zucker is going to be rooting for it trend north badly unless the 0C line is over his house and then he will say it might be colder than models prog. I can see it coming. :snowman:

BTW, I'm just playing Nate. :scooter:

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

You are quite confused Paul.

You might have to team up with Zucker's knee high socks the first warning criteria event we have this winter. Zucker is going to be rooting for it trend north badly unless the 0C line is over his house and then he will say it might be colder than models prog. I can see it coming. :snowman:

BTW, I'm just playing Nate. :scooter:

I hope I'm wrong and we get pounded this winter.

At least if I get alot of sleet this winter I now know to include that with my snowfall totals.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

You are quite confused Paul.

You might have to team up with Zucker's knee high socks the first warning criteria event we have this winter. Zucker is going to be rooting for it trend north badly unless the 0C line is over his house and then he will say it might be colder than models prog. I can see it coming. :snowman:

BTW, I'm just playing Nate. :scooter:

You seem to misconstrue my comments as meaning that I think SNE is going to have a terrible winter like 99-00. I actually think snowfall will be average for most of the region with perhaps some above average amounts possible for ORH, the Berkshires, etc. Temperatures should be slightly above average but not a total torch. I'm just not buying the brutally cold winter with 70" of snowfall at Logan given that the Pacific looks pretty miserable right now with poor prospects for favorable tropical forcing, and the +QBO/solar min will make it hard to achieve a SSW and tank the AO/NAO as we get deeper into the winter and establish the polar vortex. We also lost all the warm SSTs in the GoA which were supposedly going to help the winter be better. Nothing points to a blockbuster winter, though I don't think anything points to a miserable one either since the NAO is in its negative decadal phase, Atlantic SST configuration is favorable, and the northern stream looks active.

I'm sure you'll get a warning criteria event at Boston and more snow than I receive this winter. I'm thinking 25-30" here and around 40" at Logan.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

0z ECM looks pretty ugly...the Pacific ridge gets some cold into the Upper Midwest and NNE, but due to the general -PNA tendency we have another cutter upcoming with the SE ridge starting to get stronger towards Day 10. Standard Niña pattern: cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc

Why are you looking at the D10 Euro op? Besides, everything points to post Thanksgiving for fun, as we thought. Still a monster -nao in the long range. Even if I take into account some model fudging and trend it a little warmer, it's conducive for snow for most of sne.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

40.9/40, foggy and .03" on the day.

I'm itching for a bonafide snow threat. Looks like my ten days of R and R that begins on Friday will be more conducive to yard work than getting excited about an event. At least I'll be productive I guess.

Not buying the Thanksgiving threat? Scott says we'll be building snowmen after eating turkey.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

0z ECM looks pretty ugly...the Pacific ridge gets some cold into the Upper Midwest and NNE, but due to the general -PNA tendency we have another cutter upcoming with the SE ridge starting to get stronger towards Day 10. Standard Niña pattern: cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc

LOL the pattern on the Euro days 8-10 and beyond doesn't resemble a cutter pattern in the slightest. It's a north south gradient with storms cutting south of New England with snow/ice threats. With that strong -NAO nothing is cutting west of us

It's got a snowstorm on Thanksgivng day

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

LOL, how did I say that again?

Well ... it wasn't those words, but the intent was there. :)

Besides, it sounded like Mike needed a little pick-me-up this morning.

I'll weenie up and say that the storm shown on the GFS for T-day/Friday that is sliding to the south will trend north/west and give us measureable. Weenies up!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well ... it wasn't those words, but the intent was there. :)

Besides, it sounded like Mike needed a little pick-me-up this morning.

I'll weenie up and say that the storm shown on the GFS for T-day/Friday that is sliding to the south will trend north/west and give us measureable. Weenies up!

Yeah there were some signs around that time last week...I think it was for Friday or whatever. I have no clue about that time, except to wait and see what transpires for the next 5 days. Heavy heavy model swings coming up. Not much to comment on the pattern change. Still looks solid.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

It would be fun if we could see the euro op to hr 384. Looks like the low from the gulf would be a doozy.

yeah like you mentioned in the pattern change thread, something maybe in the works for the holiday weekend. maybe it amounts to nothing but that seems to be the period to watch. just happy to see that cold coming down and fairly consistently now.

I wish i had the ec ens out past 240 (beggars can't be choosers i suppose so having any access is good)

that cold should carry us into early december...and from then on...it's winter - which is fookin awesome! :lol:

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Thx bro.....I thk the 30's are the best decade TBH.....unique intertwining of youth, wisdom and stability.

I thought that until I hit 40.

If you stay open, keep learning, push yourself to do things you didn't think you could do, AND stay really connected to the people who are most important to you and need you, then it keeps getting better! Only problem is it really starts going fast...

Happy Bday!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

yeah like you mentioned in the pattern change thread, something maybe in the works for the holiday weekend. maybe it amounts to nothing but that seems to be the period to watch. just happy to see that cold coming down and fairly consistently now.

I wish i had the ec ens out past 240 (beggars can't be choosers i suppose so having any access is good)

that cold should carry us into early december...and from then on...it's winter - which is fookin awesome! :lol:

I don't know..maybe it's because of the three cups of coffee I had this morning, but I like that time. Even the gfs ensemble members have something during that time. Like you said,it could be just cold and dry, but that period seems to hold some potential anyways. No hurt in talking about it.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I don't know..maybe it's because of the three cups of coffee I had this morning, but I like that time. Even the gfs ensemble members have something during that time. Like you said,it could be just cold and dry, but that period seems to hold some potential anyways. No hurt in talking about it.

Well i will take it as a possible threat if the ensembles have it, But the op has a bomb @384 every day.......lol

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