Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,703
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

SNE obs and discussion/banter


AmyB

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't discount that it is going to get cold around Thanksgiving, I think basically everyone agrees on that, I do think though it could get pretty darn cold but it's all going to depend on where exactly the -NAO block sets itself up. I don't really care how cold it gets though, the weather pattern around that timeframe looks quite active so as long as we are in a below average temp pattern we should have decent snow chances. However, once the -NAO relaxes a bit and begins a trend up ward that's when the EPO/PNA will take over.

I still say either Tuesday or Wednesday gets above 60F at BDL...so is it a bet?

Yes it is. I am now thinking they may not get above 45 as the warmup never makes it and the cold press and sneaky high to our north pushes down. I need 1 or 2 more model runs to be sure, but we've seen the models back way off on any early week warmup and I suspect they're not done yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes it is. I am now thinking they may not get above 45 as the warmup never makes it and the cold press and sneaky high to our north pushes down. I need 1 or 2 more model runs to be sure, but we've seen the models back way off on any early week warmup and I suspect they're not done yet

Well they also trended warmer if you compare from last week. The 11-15 day was an icebox..6-10 day, not so much. That said, I'd probably watch the usual suspects like sw nh/berks for the cold air to hang tight early next week. Whether it''s 45 or 65, it really doesn't matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes it is. I am now thinking they may not get above 45 as the warmup never makes it and the cold press and sneaky high to our north pushes down. I need 1 or 2 more model runs to be sure, but we've seen the models back way off on any early week warmup and I suspect they're not done yet

I disagree, I think we do see a pretty decent warmup for a few days just prior to the front, the SE ridge builds in and with a developing system off to our west as that approaches that will pump up heights even more...the system is associated with the strong cold front anyways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree, I think we do see a pretty decent warmup for a few days just prior to the front, the SE ridge builds in and with a developing system off to our west as that approaches that will pump up heights even more...the system is associated with the strong cold front anyways.

Witha strong -NAO we should see any storm that cuts west squashed south and/or weaken..watch and learn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well they also trended warmer if you compare from last week. The 11-15 day was an icebox..6-10 day, not so much. That said, I'd probably watch the usual suspects like sw nh/berks for the cold air to hang tight early next week. Whether it''s 45 or 65, it really doesn't matter.

I'm talking about all of us..Not just them.I think the boundary ends up near NYC

And it does matter to me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Witha strong -NAO we should see any storm that cuts west squashed south and/or weaken..watch and learn

The NAO doesn't get that negative until after that system passes, given the strength of that SE ridge it's going to take some big time -NAO to squash it and we just don't won't have it in place at that time. Tuesday and Wednesday either close to or above 60F...bank on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAO doesn't get that negative until after that system passes, given the strength of that SE ridge it's going to take some big time -NAO to squash it and we just don't won't have it in place at that time. Tuesday and Wednesday either close to or above 60F...bank on it.

He is right, in that it does go negative this weekend. The first event will probably be cold air dammed, but the second other low is on question. If the euro is right nrn mass and snr nh may not get warm sectored. It will be interesting to see where this front hangs up. Blizz does have some logic to his rantings. laugh.gif It really doesn't matter, but Kevin is living in dying by 45F or 55F.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He is right, in that it does go negative this weekend. The first event will probably be cold air dammed, but the second other low is on question. If the euro is right nrn mass and snr nh may not get warm sectored. It will be interesting to see where this front hangs up. Blizz does have some logic to his rantings. laugh.gif It really doesn't matter, but Kevin is living in dying by 45F or 55F.

Ohh were talking about the weekend? Oh sure...this weekend will be quite chilly and I could see some overrunning potential on Sunday.

The warmup doesn't happen until like Tuesday or Wednesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ohh were talking about the weekend? Oh sure...this weekend will be quite chilly and I could see some overrunning potential on Sunday.

The warmup doesn't happen until like Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tuesday is even questionable with that front nearby. It could go either way.

Honestly, I can't believe we're having this discussion about 45 or 55, but I guess I'm not helping...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tuesday is even questionable with that front nearby. It could go either way.

Honestly, I can't believe we're having this discussion about 45 or 55, but I guess I'm not helping...lol.

eh, it's weather, that's what were here to discuss :lol:

I think we see the warmup, the system developing and deepening well off to our west will really help to pump heights up out ahead of it, and we should warm sector. The pattern also favors a west-coast trough which should also help to pump up the ridge here. It's a brief warmup but still a warmup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 out here now --damp chill. Encountered a couple inches of last weeks snow still clinging to the shady side of Huntersfield Mountain (3424') in the nw Catskills. Long gone here of course.

eh, it's weather, that's what were here to discuss :lol:

I think we see the warmup, the system developing and deepening well off to our west will really help to pump heights up out ahead of it, and we should warm sector. The pattern also favors a west-coast trough which should also help to pump up the ridge here. It's a brief warmup but still a warmup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...