SNE obs and discussion/banter

[weatherwiz]

Plenty of weenies on here have been talking about it. So I told them what the Euro said tonight.

I don't have much interest in it...never really did. Its zone of development is way too narrow to get excited. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but its pretty unlikely. It doesn't "look" right for a storm.

How's it looking for cold/-NAO look towards the end of the month? Maybe this is when we will have a much better shot at any type of storm, especially if we can keep the cold locked in for a period of time.

[ORH_wxman]

How's it looking for cold/-NAO look towards the end of the month? Maybe this is when we will have a much better shot at any type of storm, especially if we can keep the cold locked in for a period of time.

Model is still coming out...to 150h now. Its got the decent cold shot next weekend, but then it looks like the moderation is coming before Thanksgiving. We'll see how much it wants to torch us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If something did happen out of it, the way it looks right now, it would probably be more of an inverted trough than an actual decent storm. One of your favorite types of events.

Wake me up.....when November ends.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

How's it looking for cold/-NAO look towards the end of the month? Maybe this is when we will have a much better shot at any type of storm, especially if we can keep the cold locked in for a period of time.

Who cares right now.

[ma blizzard]

Who cares right now.

yeah, I wish we could fast-forward 2 weeks

[ORH_wxman]

There's a sick temp gradient across the northern tier of the U.S that stretches from the plains to NE.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro torches us the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. But there is some obscene cold in the upper plains behind that front.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GN.....have fun fighting over whether or not its 40 or 30*.

[weatherwiz]

Model is still coming out...to 150h now. Its got the decent cold shot next weekend, but then it looks like the moderation is coming before Thanksgiving. We'll see how much it wants to torch us.

Looks like we will definitely see quite the cold shot next weekend once the front passes through, then we definitely should start to moderate but question is how fast and how much? Probably depends on how quickly the NAO turns negative and what exactly happens with the PNA/EPO. Like you said though in the above post, looks like there will be a pretty sick temperature gradient across the region...maybe we can get some overrunning potential out of it.

Who cares right now.

I see your point, I'm just using this as a huge learning process and trying to understand different weather patterns much better and get a much better understanding of how global indices work to influence the patterns such. Coming into this winter I basically knew zilch which is why I never really participated much in the winter discussions in the past.

Basically I'm just using all this as a major learning tool so it's like "learning on the job".

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like we will definitely see quite the cold shot next weekend once the front passes through, then we definitely should start to moderate but question is how fast and how much? Probably depends on how quickly the NAO turns negative and what exactly happens with the PNA/EPO. Like you said though in the above post, looks like there will be a pretty sick temperature gradient across the region...maybe we can get some overrunning potential out of it.

I see your point, I'm just using this as a huge learning process and trying to understand different weather patterns much better and get a much better understanding of how global indices work to influence the patterns such. Coming into this winter I basically knew zilch which is why I never really participated much in the winter discussions in the past.

Basically I'm just using all this as a major learning tool so it's like "learning on the job".

I hear ya.

[H2Otown_WX]

I see your point, I'm just using this as a huge learning process and trying to understand different weather patterns much better and get a much better understanding of how global indices work to influence the patterns such. Coming into this winter I basically knew zilch which is why I never really participated much in the winter discussions in the past.

Basically I'm just using all this as a major learning tool so it's like "learning on the job".

Better learn it here, cause WestConn ain't teaching it to you.

[ORH_wxman]

Well extrapolating out, it looks like it would be very cold for Turkey Day. I think we should start getting some serious threats once that airmass moves in.

[weatherwiz]

Euro torches us the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. But there is some obscene cold in the upper plains behind that front.

Seems like there is a general agreement between the Euro/GFS on the cold/warmth between now and the end of the month?

GFS torches us as well but it's on Wednesday rather than Tuesday...not like that is a huge deal, one day difference this far out is pretty damn solid.

Looks like as the trough sharpens moving through the Northern Plains a pretty potent system develops right along the front and the flow out ahead of it really increases from the SW so some decent warmth works in from the SW.

[weatherwiz]

Well extrapolating out, it looks like it would be very cold for Turkey Day. I think we should start getting some serious threats once that airmass moves in.

GFS pretty much the same although it's a bit slower with the passage of the front. Still though the agreement between the two models for what may transpire over the next 3 weeks has been pretty significant, even some great agreement with the ensembles.

[weatherwiz]

Better learn it here, cause WestConn ain't teaching it to you.

That's the thing about school, I don' think they exactly teach you this stuff, basically all they do is teach you how to understand things and then of course the math...going to school doesn't make you a better forecaster, that is up to the person...as much as you have to work in school you also have to do alot on your own.

[H2Otown_WX]

GFS pretty much the same although it's a bit slower with the passage of the front. Still though the agreement between the two models for what may transpire over the next 3 weeks has been pretty significant, even some great agreement with the ensembles.

I'm not really seeing the consensus. The 18z run of the GFS had the front blasting through at 288 hrs or so and this run has it a hr 336. It's always a bad sign when the pattern change is either staying the same distance away or is getting further away with each run.

[H2Otown_WX]

That's the thing about school, I don' think they exactly teach you this stuff, basically all they do is teach you how to understand things and then of course the math...going to school doesn't make you a better forecaster, that is up to the person...as much as you have to work in school you also have to do alot on your own.

Yeah, well in particular, I know WestConn doesn't go into depth with the teleconnections so you have to learn that stuff on your own or go to grad. school I guess.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not really seeing the consensus. The 18z run of the GFS had the front blasting through at 288 hrs or so and this run has it a hr 336. It's always a bad sign when the pattern change is either staying the same distance away or is getting further away with each run.

Eh...Personally I very rarely ever look at off-hour model runs, the only time I will ever do so is usually a few days leading up to a potential storm and it's basically just to see how they are handling the pattern and to an extent timing of key features but not much else.

Usually in the summer I don't even bother to look at 6z/18z runs for a potential severe wx event until like the day before.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah, well in particular, I know WestConn doesn't go into depth with the teleconnections so you have to learn that stuff on your own or go to grad. school I guess.

Yup...alot of it is all on your own stuff...although I'm not sure what other schools do with this type of stuff...I'd think they definitely at least do alot with indices like the NAO/AO/PNA/PDO/EPO at least. Probably more like certain pattern setups from each and such.

[H2Otown_WX]

Eh...Personally I very rarely ever look at off-hour model runs, the only time I will ever do so is usually a few days leading up to a potential storm and it's basically just to see how they are handling the pattern and to an extent timing of key features but not much else.

Usually in the summer I don't even bother to look at 6z/18z runs for a potential severe wx event until like the day before.

Well unfortunately, the 12z run has the COFRO passage even earlier than the 18z.

[H2Otown_WX]

I mean, it isn't that big of deal because we're talking about a difference of like 2 or 3 days in the timing of it but the fact of the matter is, until we can lock the pattern change in on a <200 hr time frame, I won't feel too confident.

[weatherwiz]

Well unfortunately, the 12z run has the COFRO passage even earlier than the 18z.

I mean, it isn't that big of deal because we're talking about a difference of like 2 or 3 days in the timing of it but the fact of the matter is, until we can lock the pattern change in on a <200 hr time frame, I won't feel too confident.

Yeah that's the thing, when dealing with the timeframe we are looking at and dealing with the fact that there is a potential (and in this case quite likely) for a pattern change timing of these things is going to change from mode run to model run and there will be lots of flip flopping...this is just the models idea of trying to gauge the pattern and get a feel for how exactly things will setup.

There are just so many factors in place it would nearly be impossible for the models to be 100% consistent from run-to-run...if that was the case forecasting would be MUCH easier

[moneypitmike]

Lol, that's the thing, my mom captures some of them humanely then they get released back outside. Then of course they just come right back in and you're stick in a never-ending cycle of mouse poop.

Let them go in front of some cranky neighbor's house.

Looks like the places with any (relative) elevation stayed mild. 41.2/22 off a low of 39.5.

[moneypitmike]

Have you tried finding their point of entry?

That one is way too easy........

[moneypitmike]

Our 2 cats would get them if they were in the house.

One caught a small snake once... crawled in through where the waste pipe heads out of the basement to the septic... little tiny hole.

Send it over here, Dave. Below in my kitchen last March. This could help with a mouse problem, too.

Temp looks like it's trying to do a last minute (well, 90 minute) drop: 39.3. Guess it's bled all the warm air it can.

EDIT 6:15: temp had dropped 3.8* in an hour to 37.4. Now bounced back up to 38.5 in about 90 seconds. Hill ftl.

[MaineJayhawk]

Put a knife in the Friday storm, no guidance is supporting that idea. Heavy waiting continues.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sucks we lost the snow event end of week..though i suspect we'll see the modles pick it back up again in some fashion by like Monday or Tuesday.

47.2 for the low here in the worst radiating spot east of the Mississippi

[Damage In Tolland]

The Phishing was a problem on my home computer...but on facebook this message gave me what I needed to fix it.

For those unable to log in from home... try changing your DNS IP addresses to 8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4. These are google's IPs. If you need instructions, Google it as the steps depend on what OS you're using.

Anyway, high of 66 but since then its dropped to 33.1.

NIce, warm day today, hopefully snow later this week!

Where do you go on the PC to change the IP address? I have no clue??

[MaineJayhawk]

Where do you go on the PC to change the IP address? I have no clue??

http://whatismyipaddress.com/change-ip

[MaineJayhawk]

http://whatismyipaddress.com/change-ip

If you try that and F your pc up so much that you have a complete system crash it's been good to know ya.