Mikehobbyst Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It looks like plain rain is off the table now. I bet ECMWF will show a MECS on the 12Z run with the trends. Maybe another 10-15 inches with some ZR and PL mixing in if 850's just get above zero based on track. Looking like another MECS Miller B event similar to last weeks. I think we have a real shot to get to 100-110 inches on Long Island along with Southern New England. Bank on it. We look to repeat 1993-94 winter and this time it looks like real prospect through March 2011. Cold and snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It looks like plain rain is off the table now. I bet ECMWF will show a MECS on the 12Z run with the trends. Maybe another 10-15 inches with some ZR and PL mixing in if 850's just get above zero based on track. Looking like another MECS Miller B event similar to last weeks. I think we have a real shot to get to 100-110 inches on Long Island along with Southern New England. Bank on it. We look to repeat 1993-94 winter and this time it looks like real prospect through March 2011. Cold and snow wise. Soundings on the 6z GFS would be consistent with a mostly rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Soundings on the 6z GFS would be consistent with a mostly rain event. I noticed that too, but that SE wind at the surface at 102 hours is very suspicious given the damming signature it shows at the surface, I remember in the 07-08 and 08-09 winters these events drove me nuts because it seemed I was waiting forever for the 040-060 wind at JFK to go around to 090 or 120....and there was only marginal CAD signatures showing on the models.... As for the OP...the best I could see out of this is we get a weaker system and 4-7 inches or so falls due to significant overrunning before the changeover to PL/ZR/RA...its just hard to say though because models are never good on these events...PD II was a major overrunning storm and many models had SN to RA 3-4 days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I noticed that too, but that SE wind at the surface at 102 hours is very suspicious given the damming signature it shows at the surface, I remember in the 07-08 and 08-09 winters these events drove me nuts because it seemed I was waiting forever for the 040-060 wind at JFK to go around to 090 or 120....and there was only marginal CAD signatures showing on the models.... As for the OP...the best I could see out of this is we get a weaker system and 4-7 inches or so falls due to significant overrunning before the changeover to PL/ZR/RA...its just hard to say though because models are never good on these events...PD II was a major overrunning storm and many models had SN to RA 3-4 days before. I agree with you, SnowGoose69. I also believe that a period of frozen precipitation is quite likely at the start, possibly with some accumulations. An advisory-level event wouldn't completely surprise me. But currently the soundings are not what one wants to see if NYC were seriously in the game for a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The only reason I'm not deleting this thread is because of the suprisingly good replies. Mikehobbyst, please stop making new threads and post in the existing storm threads, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The only reason I'm not deleting this thread is because of the suprisingly good replies. Mikehobbyst, please stop making new threads and post in the existing storm threads, thank you. wow....talk about trying your hardest to win weenie of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow....talk about trying your hardest to win weenie of the year Complete with a reference to the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow....talk about trying your hardest to win weenie of the year The way he is going, he has got to be the favorite for 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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