Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So far, both December and January have featured snowfall in excess of 10" at Central Park (20.1" and 10.8, respectively). While not unheard of, this amount of snow this early in the year is fairly unusual, so I looked back at other winters featuring 10"+ in both December and February to see if there is any connection with February and March's snowfall. Winter featuring 10"+ in both D/J, February snowfall, March snowfall 1872-73: 18.8", .4" 1876-77: .4", 6.5" 1880-81: 8.8", 2.3" 1883-84: 8.0", 2.3" 1896-97: 11.0", 3.3" 1904-05: 5.8", 1.8" 1917-18: 3.7", .6" 1947-48: 13.6", 4.7" 1960-61: 18.2", 1.2" 1963-64: 14.1", 6.0" 1995-96: 21.2", 13.2" 2003-04: .7", 4.8" Average February snowfall in winters where D/J both saw 10"+ is 10.4", while average March snow is 3.9". The median #s are 9.9" for February and 2.8" in March. While this is plainly an instance of using selective data with no true correlation, there does seem to be a tendency for winters featuring snowy December and January couplets to have snowy Februarys as well. While 4/12 Februarys saw under 6", 8/12 saw 8"+ and 5/12 saw a foot or more of snow. The lowest winter total even supports additional snow after January is over, as 03-04 saw 5.5" of additional snow (17-18 had snow in April). I'd say that purely based on past instances of snowy Decembers and Januarys in the same winter, there is a significantly higher likelihood than normal that February comes out snowier than average while March is relatively lackluster, although even without anymore January snow (and I do think we'll see more snow this month), the combination of the two will likely put NYC over 40" for the winter, especially given February's recent proclivity for being NYC's snowiest month on average, with the Februarys of the 2000s averaging 13.3". Given all of this, I think NYC's chance of seeing a snowy (10"+) February is significantly higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW I went with almost no snow in February for my winter forecast, but latest LR progs and EURO weeklies seem to support some kind of continuation in the blocking we've been seeing for the past month+, which would definitely lend credence to the idea of a snowier February than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Given all of this, I think NYC's chance of seeing a snowy (10"+) February is significantly higher than normal. I agree. Some figures: New York City: December snowfall of 18" or more: - 7/7 (100%) cases had 40" or more seasonal snowfall - Mean seasonal snowfall: 51.2" - Median seasonal snowfall: 48.1" - 7/7 (100%) cases with January-April snowfall of 20" or more - 2/7 (29%) cases with January-April snowfall of 30" or more - Mean January-April snowfall: 27.2" - Median January-April snowfall: 26.0" - January: 6/7 (86%) cases with 10" or more snowfall; Climatology: 32% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) - February: 4/7 (57%) cases with 10" or more snowfall; Climatology: 35% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) - January and February: 3/7 (43%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month; Climatology: 11% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I agree. Some figures: New York City: December snowfall of 18" or more: - 7/7 (100%) cases had 40" or more seasonal snowfall - Mean seasonal snowfall: 51.2" - Median seasonal snowfall: 48.1" - 7/7 (100%) cases with January-April snowfall of 20" or more - 2/7 (29%) cases with January-April snowfall of 30" or more - Mean January-April snowfall: 27.2" - Median January-April snowfall: 26.0" - January: 6/7 (86%) cases with 10" or more snowfall; Climatology: 32% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) - February: 4/7 (57%) cases with 10" or more snowfall; Climatology: 35% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) - January and February: 3/7 (43%) cases with 10" or more snowfall in each month; Climatology: 11% cases (1869-1870 through 2009-2010) I was hoping I'd see you here, your agreement makes me feel validated! Also: NYC's snowcover statistics are very impressive for this early in the winter. I'll find the thread where the data is, but this winter is looking (to me, at least) like it could end up with one of the largest counts of continuous days featuring 1"+ snowcover (or even total days). We're at 18 days as of today, and I'd feel comfortable saying we'll reach 23 continuous days at a very minimum (and that is assuming the D4-5 threat turns out the worst way possible). This is a very impressive statistic, IMO, and shows that while we haven't seen severe cold, we've been abnormally low enough to have a winter more akin to somewhere Upstate than the city. The piles of snow today look as if we just had a much more significant storm than we did, given all the remaining snow from the previous events this winter. Should we stay majority or all snow for the D4-5 event, I think there's a very good chance we see at least 10 continuous days of 4"+ snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 tomorrow will be the 20th consecutive day with at least 1" on the ground... Go here for NYC snowfall stats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Thanks Nikolai. So far things seem to be coming together for another generally cold and snowy month for NYC in February. So long as the mainly rain event early next week doesn't wash away the snow--and the Euro is much warmer than the GFS right now--the duration of NYC's snowcover could be quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I remember that from 2004, seeing that it was only the 2nd time ever where less than 1 inch fell in February after double digits in Dec and Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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