lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know there have already been a few post about it in other threads but I figured I'd start a thread for this system on its own. NWS BUF AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS LIMITED...THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT ANY GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO BE LIGHT. LAKE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE DOES LOOK TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WINDS TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL OMEGA WHICH WILL TAP MIXING RATIOS OF 2-3 G/KG FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS OR SO...YIELDING GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS IN THE MID TEENS COULD BOOST THESE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY. HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS TIME FRAME. Looks like the flow on Saturday will average about 240 so the lake enhancement would probally be from BUF north on Saturday, I'm thinking warning criteria may be possible with the synoptic/enhancement depending on how much ice cover there is by Saturday... Projections for the open lake right now from the NWS are below...If this is true that is about 80 percent of open water on the lake which I feel could let areas see warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks good for a general light snow for much of the area over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I should add that even outside the lake enhanced areas across the rest of NYS at least 2-4 inches will be possible , especally with the high fluff factors. Ratios will probally be close to 25 or 30:1 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NWS IN ALB ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ALLOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITHTHERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH IN NEW YORK AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS ONLY RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST TO PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTHWEST...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 20:1 COULD PRODUCE 2 TO PERHAPS 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE FA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 NWS IN ALB Yes with a 25:1 snow ratio all it would take would be .25" of QPF for 6 inches an .50" QPF for a foot , which is why I think someone NE of lake Erie and Ontario will see 1 foot from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html Just to prove Lake Erie can throw out 1' + totals even with 80 percent ice coverage, this event only looks to be 20% covered , although it looks more like the snow will be lake enhanced rather then true lake effect. LEK what are your thoughts... I'd love to hear them Justin (kulaginman) you too , if your out there still, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z nam shows the enhancement off ontario well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z nam shows the enhancement off ontario well.. Yes 12z NAM really baced off on precip this run especally for Erie... We'll see what the 18z run says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z euro is a nice hit for some following towns in the 0.25- 0.4 range buffalo, KROC, syracuse, ottawa, ART 0.25...KMSS, jamestown 0.1- 0.25 montreal, BGM, BTV, SLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z euro is a nice hit for some following towns in the 0.25- 0.4 range buffalo, KROC, syracuse, ottawa, ART 0.25...KMSS 0.1- 0.25 montreal, BGM, BTV, SLK 0c line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0c line? well south... im talking about the clipper here over the weekend, not the threat next week.....i thought this thread was for the clipper nice hit of WAA snows ahead of the low around lake ontario......clipper tracks right across the ottawa valley EDIT i think its too early to discuss amounts for next week , if any models will be flip flopping all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 well south... im talking about the clipper here over the weekend, not the threat next week.....i thought this thread was for the clipper nice hit of WAA snows ahead of the low around lake ontario......clipper tracks right across the ottawa valley EDIT i think its too early to discuss amounts for next week , if any models will be flip flopping all over the place It is for the clipper, Ayuuds being silly What site do you use to look at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 lol sorry didn't even see the thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hpc day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 models really trending towards very little now, this event is a BUST. 1-3" MAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 models really trending towards very little now, this event is a BUST. 1-3" MAX. Meh LES wasn't looking good from start anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ill take my 3-5 with the lake enhancement. Snow depth has settled to 9.5 Inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ill take my 3-5 with the lake enhancement. Snow depth has settled to 9.5 Inches here. ill check the 18z bufkit data brb ^ Best shot for the LES looks to be mid-morning tru the afternoon,850mb temps arent that cold either -10c or so with some shear problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 ill check the 18z bufkit data brb ^ Best shot for the LES looks to be mid-morning tru the afternoon,850mb temps arent that cold either -10c or so with some shear problems Shear is low, only about 20 degrees from surface to 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 KALB snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Oh..........Andy from Forestport!!! ..LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK IN SATURDAY NIGHT... .A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING: BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES: LOWER 20S. * IMPACTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 3-5 ottawa (7-13cm) 1-3 montreal (3-8cm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2" FORTHE SOUTHEAST HALF OF AREA ALTHOUGH 2-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW BANDS WILL INITIALLY SET UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A 280 TRAJECTORY...WITH LOCAL RESEARCH INDICATING INLAND EXTENT WILL BE AT LEAST INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY EARLY. THEN...AS THE MEAN MIXED LAYER FLOW VEERS TO A 270-260 TRAJECTORY...LAKE BANDS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PERHAPS WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BANDS WILL BE RATHER TRANSITORY SO ENOUGH SNOW MAY NOT PILE UP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Dolgeville+NY&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ottawa currently reporting moderate snow vis 1/2 mile as are locations north of lake ontario good clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docawesome Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Snow growth is terrible. Nothing like the beauty of the LES we got last week. I'll take it though. Who would have thunk that the 3 winters after 07-08 would be payback for all the fun we had in 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 SN- has begun here nice looking radar to the west and excellent obs out there too snow growth may not be the greatest as Doc has pointed out, but it should end up being a good event for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Getting some steady snow at the moment, radar to the west looks pretty nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Good solid moderate snow here in Liverpool.....Nice flake size to boot. We are turning the corner synoptically, IMO....and LES looks to become even more frequent in the weeks to come..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Albany's snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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