Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 nah phl gets abut an inch or two then goes to sleet then rain...i have the 3 hr incrememnts they get .1 plus qpf with 850 and 2m below with a little warm wedge at 925mb where do you get the 3-hr so early? I don't see 'em until they come out on Meteostar at 12:00... and yeah I was referring to specifically that image, there is some light snow before hr 108. i hope Goose is right and the GFS is underdoing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 where do you get the 3-hr so early? I don't see 'em until they come out on Meteostar at 12:00... and yeah I was referring to specifically that image, there is some light snow before hr 108. i hope Goose is right and the GFS is underdoing precip. sv, the one i pay for the euro, i get it faster and 3 hr increments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 sv, the one i pay for the euro, i get it faster and 3 hr increments... oh i see. u get the AmericanWX WRF faster too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS has a snow event (may start as rain in some areas) around D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 oh i see. u get the AmericanWX WRF faster too? hahahah no....this type of scenario nyc will warm quicker than phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 long range GFS looks amazing....-NAO sneaking up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The image I previously posted clearly shows NYC with subfreezing 850s, and the city would likely be below freezing at the surface as well (the line is just barely N of NYC at 108). As depicted, this is 2-4" for NYC proper, and a gain for the snowpack rather than a loss with minimal non-frozen QPF. actually they aren't he was right... yea you would get some snow but not 2-4 by hr 108 nyc is well above....this is the sounding out of yonkers at hr 108... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 long range GFS looks amazing....-NAO sneaking up too yea it tries pop west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 actually they aren't he was right... yea you would get some snow but not 2-4 by hr 108 nyc is well above....this is the sounding out of yonkers at hr 108...ncep prob smoothes the 850 line ...That most definitely shows the 850s to still be subfreezing, albeit slightly. I'd chance it with subfreezing 850s given the antecedent snowpack. As depicted, NYC would be snow through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 actually they aren't he was right... yea you would get some snow but not 2-4 by hr 108 nyc is well above....this is the sounding out of yonkers at hr 108... Where do you get these images from? thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ...That most definitely shows the 850s to still be subfreezing, albeit slightly. I'd chance it with subfreezing 850s given the antecedent snowpack. As depicted, NYC would be snow through 108. yea i wasnt looking at the 850, i just saw the really warm bl...anyway its a moot pt, the fact is it colder and helps alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The placement of the high is so much better during the storm, I wouldn't doubt that CAD is being underdone here, as it usually is this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Where do you get these images from? thanks in advance! http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=01&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=18&fhour=39¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false just clikc your area...its not going to have a sounding for that gen location but its usually close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 if you're a winter lover you gotta be impressed with the long range GFS...has some support (in the cold department) from the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the ens pretty much agree with the op..prob a couple cold solutions and warm solutions on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the ggem is basically going right up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Talk about frigid... clearly in lala land but 00z GFS has NYC staying under 10 degrees for three days in a row, with a minimum one night of -15! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc (time sensitive, obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Regardless if we loose some of the snow pack with this event, it seems that were in a pattern that will keep replenishing the snow pack all winter and even perhaps further saturating it during events like next week. The bottom line is, come the first big rain event in March and its time to get the boats out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Regardless if we loose some of the snow pack with this event, it seems that were in a pattern that will keep replenishing the snow pack all winter and even perhaps further saturating it during events like next week. The bottom line is, come the first big rain event in March and its time to get the boats out. Not really sure why one would be worrying about that now? With this first event GFS just came in colder and I am not sure if it still has the right idea,,,, I know the GGEM going over the APPS is not going to happen cause they either go on the west side or the east side & very rarely over the spine,,,, But this first event is not even solidly settled yet ..yet alone worrying about something in March...for all you know March could be cold and snowy as well ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Regardless if we loose some of the snow pack with this event, it seems that were in a pattern that will keep replenishing the snow pack all winter and even perhaps further saturating it during events like next week. The bottom line is, come the first big rain event in March and its time to get the boats out. i'd assume saturating the snowpack, as you mentioned, make future melting more difficult after the first overnight freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Not really sure why one would be worrying about that now? With this first event GFS just came in colder and I am not sure if it still has the right idea,,,, I know the GGEM going over the APPS is not going to happen cause they either go on the west side or the east side & very rarely over the spine,,,, But this first event is not even solidly settled yet ..yet alone worrying about something in March...for all you know March could be cold and snowy as well ! The GFS surface reflection given the 500mb depiction seems overdone, the GEM may be more correct, we'll see what the Euro does, but the GFS seems overly strong if you ask me....regardless this is likely a snow to rain event for the coast, unless somehow we get a very weak system that simply scoots off the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not making a forecast for March, I was just simply more or less stating the obvious that the later in the year we keep the snow pack, the greater the risks of spring flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The GFS surface reflection given the 500mb depiction seems overdone, the GEM may be more correct, we'll see what the Euro does, but the GFS seems overly strong if you ask me....regardless this is likely a snow to rain event for the coast, unless somehow we get a very weak system that simply scoots off the MA coast. I have not seen the GGEM posted beyond what was shown but what was posted was going directly over the APPS...normally mountains would tear apart a system which is why they ride normally east or to the west.... From what i seen it was going over the APPS..so i do not think that would be a correct depiction either... And no i do not think the GFS is correct yet either but i think the colder part is a step in the right direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have not seen the GGEM posted beyond what was shown but what was posted was going directly over the APPS...normally mountains would tear apart a system which is why they ride normally east or to the west.... Sorry if this is a stupid question, but would that really be a reason for why the system wouldn't track over the APPS? It's not like low pressure systems have an inherent knowledge that mountains will tear them up. Plus hurricanes go over the mountainous terrain of Carribean islands like Cuba all the time even though the mountains tear them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry if this is a stupid question, but would that really be a reason for why the system wouldn't track over the APPS? It's not like low pressure systems have an inherent knowledge that mountains will tear it up. Plus hurricanes go over the mountainous terrain of Carribean islands like Cuba all the time even though the mountains tear them up. Its generally known that systems either travel the western side or the eastern side of the APPS. It has happened in the past but its very rare for a system to go directly over the APPS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry if this is a stupid question, but would that really be a reason for why the system wouldn't track over the APPS? It's not like low pressure systems have an inherent knowledge that mountains will tear it up. Plus hurricanes go over the mountainous terrain of Carribean islands like Cuba all the time even though the mountains tear them up. As with everything in nature... "the path of least resistence" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I really hope the GFS verifies. Some light snow to light rain and less than 0.5" of QPF which means I may still have white on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I really hope the GFS verifies. Some light snow to light rain and less than 0.5" of QPF which means I may still have white on the ground. well we shall see what the euro says, its out to hr 24 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 well we shall see what the euro says, its out to hr 24 now Looks like there's pretty good support from the GEFS mean and the NOGAPS is even better with like a snow shower and that's it. If it's gonna cut, might as well be weak with little precip. Thanks ahead of time for the Euro PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The differences between the 18z and 00z GFSwith our system are so large it just laughable. But in a good way because its much colder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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