IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The models are all over the place with this one...but I don't think (weak storm) is the way to go here. I would agree that 50's-60 is not going to verify but 1-2" rain + with 40's is a def possability. A few inches of snow perhaps far north and west cann't be ruled out, neither can an ice storm, neither can heavy rain. Will be interesting to watch this unfold as the models are making large run to run swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The models are all over the place with this one...but I don't think (weak storm) is the way to go here. I would agree that 50's-60 is not going to verify but 1-2" rain + with 40's is a def possability. A few inches of snow perhaps far north and west cann't be ruled out, neither can an ice storm, neither can heavy rain. Will be interesting to watch this unfold as the models are making large run to run swings. I dont think anyone is discounting the possibility of a lot of rain with this system, but if you look at all the models, it is only when it cuts do we actually get anything more than a half inch or so. If it occurs like the euro/GGEM have it then it would likely be cool, a little bit of rain after some frozen at the outset. Obviously the GFS could be correct, but at this point doesn't have much support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Don't know what the hell Ant is smoking, GFS looks great in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't have access to the GGEM indiv members (I don't know who does) but don't be fooled by those ensemble means. A low that weak so close to the coast would def be rain. There's probably one or two suppressed members causing the mean to look colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Interesting video by Steve D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 metsfan is usually not guilty of this but after a snowstorm there tends to be a lot of negativity surrounding the future pattern if there isn't another snow threat on the horizon, and ESPECIALLY when there is a possibility of a cutter . Just an observation. I will gladly take 2 amazing storms in 2 and a half weeks and hedge that the pattern recurs with more snow and cold a wk or 2 down the line. It does seem that way, this would not even qualify as a cutter, the GFS is the most west of most guidance as well....the 18z GFS continues to lack sufficient overrunning snows ahead of the system, as we get inside 96 hours I think it will get a better idea...then again this is the type of storm where snow will start 6 hours before any model shows it, alot like the 2/08 event where snow started at 1am when the expected start time was 6 or 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It does seem that way, this would not even qualify as a cutter, the GFS is the most west of most guidance as well....the 18z GFS continues to lack sufficient overrunning snows ahead of the system, as we get inside 96 hours I think it will get a better idea...then again this is the type of storm where snow will start 6 hours before any model shows it, alot like the 2/08 event where snow started at 1am when the expected start time was 6 or 7am. That storm busted in a good way for our area. I remember the forecast was only for 2-4 inches before switching to rain. The area saw 6-8 inches of snow with no rain. The storm never phased, which lead to a colder and snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That storm busted in a good way for our area. I remember the forecast was only for 2-4 inches before switching to rain. The area saw 6-8 inches of snow with no rain. The storm never phased, which lead to a colder and snowier solution. That was part of it, that it was less amped than anticipated and may have tracked more east but these storms are very frequently blown and as I posted last night rarely underachieve in terms of snow unless you really are lacking in cold air at the start but that not usually the case since the big high that causes the overrunning snows usually also causes colder temps...See the link below to the 2/18/00 storm...there were not even advisories out for the 5 boroughs that morning if I recall correctly and about 4 inches of snow fell with LGA and EWR both seeing 2 inches in one hour at one point...the setup is not identical but similar overall to what the GFS shows at 108 hours...we could use a weaker low for sure... http://www.meteo.psu...2000/us0218.php I should add that event in 2008 also holds a special place in my heart, though not so warming...we lost a corporate client that night who was red eyeing to KFRG from CA...they even called around midnight to say the radar worried them but we stuck with the forecast of the late start time, the end result was a diversion to ACY I believe and a lost client. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It does seem that way, this would not even qualify as a cutter, the GFS is the most west of most guidance as well....the 18z GFS continues to lack sufficient overrunning snows ahead of the system, as we get inside 96 hours I think it will get a better idea...then again this is the type of storm where snow will start 6 hours before any model shows it, alot like the 2/08 event where snow started at 1am when the expected start time was 6 or 7am. wow, SnowGoose is really honking this threat. (See what I did there?) I assume this would be 2/22/08? The only half-decent storm that whole winter, with 5" here then drizzle all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow, SnowGoose is really honking this threat. (See what I did there?) I assume this would be 2/22/08? The only half-decent storm that whole winter, with 5" here then drizzle all afternoon. I know this is a discussion thread, but that made me laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Glenn just said on phl17 news said that most of the snow on the ground might be gone after tuesday's mix to rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Glenn just said on phl17 news said that most of the snow on the ground might be gone after tuesday's mix to rain event. Do not worry. let the rain wash away the dirty snow. If history repeats itself, usually after an event like this, the fresh new cold air from the high in Quebec sets up for the next snowmaker usually 3-4 days down the road from this next rain/mix event. So often I hear old timers say that you got to have fresh artic air in place for a good snow event. This cold air we have now is stale as a 4 day old dunkin doughnut. I would like a new white coating in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Do not worry. let the rain wash away the dirty snow. If history repeats itself, usually after an event like this, the fresh new cold air from the high in Quebec sets up for the next snowmaker usually 3-4 days down the road from this next rain/mix event. So often I hear old timers say that you got to have fresh artic air in place for a good snow event. This cold air we have now is stale as a 4 day old dunkin doughnut. I would like a new white coating in a week or so. i don't know, I think the cold pattern behind this storm might be too suppressive. but as soon as we ease out a bit, we should be good for another event. next week looks cold & dry behind the rain storm. not that i mind. we haven't had a good sustained cold in a while. 1/09 was somewhat cold, but I think the highs were in the 20s the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't know about you guys but I'll be depressed if we lose all the snow cover in one fell swoop. I've gotten used to seeing snow on the ground. Non stop snow cover for almost 3 weeks now. Plenty of time for things to trend in the direction where at least the resulting weather won't be as detrimental to the health of the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't know about you guys but I'll be depressed if we lose all the snow cover in one fell swoop. I've gotten used to seeing snow on the ground. Non stop snow cover for almost 3 weeks now. Plenty of time for things to trend in the direction where at least the resulting weather won't be as detrimental to the health of the snow pack. honestly sundog I think there is a greater than 50% chance we don't fully lose snowcover, esp if we can tack a few overrunning inches on top. Even if it rains the chances are still high that temps will be relatively cold and so far only the GFS paints a very rainy scene. I guess we'll look for some trends the next couple days to see what direction this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 i don't know, I think the cold pattern behind this storm might be too suppressive. but as soon as we ease out a bit, we should be good for another event. next week looks cold & dry behind the rain storm. not that i mind. we haven't had a good sustained cold in a while. 1/09 was somewhat cold, but I think the highs were in the 20s the whole time. The NAO will likely be neutral or positive, so any suppressive cold pattern would be unlikely though it cannot be completely ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This time of year, up in the headlands of the Delaware and Hudson, an inch of rain that saturates more than melts the snow pack, especially during the stereotypical mid-January thaw, it just means that much more trapped water for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 gfs is better, a lot colder, would preserve the snow pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 gfs is better, a lot colder, would preserve the snow pack... I feel comfortable saying this coming D4-5 event is not going to melt our snowpack in any significant way and may even add to it. Run to run progression continues to favor colder and potentially snowier solutions for NYC. I think the 00z GFS could be a precursor to larger changes afoot. If the nrn stream sw can move faster, we're dealing with a clipper rather than some SW flow event, and the srn shortwave will have more room to develop. Perhaps instead of one event, we could end up with a borderline clipper followed by a moderate to large snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 gfs is better, a lot colder, would preserve the snow pack... Yep, lighter event and colder. Might be a mix around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 that backside energy the gfs swings off the nc coast could get interesting down the road if its still progged down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 gfs is better, a lot colder, would preserve the snow pack... Yeah - Snow to mix/rain. Relatively brief period above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yep, lighter event and colder. Might be a mix around here. its more than a mix, you start as prob an inch or two of snow then to ice then over to rain finally with a temp prob in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Would certainly add to water content of snowpack perhaps to depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Would certainly add to water content of snowpack perhaps to depth. Verbatim this is 2-4" to sleet to rain, although a majority of the QPF would be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The NAO will likely be neutral or positive, so any suppressive cold pattern would be unlikely though it cannot be completely ruled out. oh wow. What happened to that uber -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Verbatim this is 2-4" to sleet to rain, although a majority of the QPF would be frozen. Looks like snow/ice for the far burbs and mountains, verbatim. 850's and 2m temps are both above freezing for I-95 for NY south. Even in NY 850's are warmer than 2m temps by a smidge, so this would probably be ice and not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like snow/ice for the far burbs and mountains, verbatim. 850's and 2m temps are both above freezing for I-95 for NY south. Even in NY 850's are warmer than 2m temps by a smidge, so this would probably be ice and not snow. nah phl gets abut an inch or two then goes to sleet then rain...i have the 3 hr incrememnts they get .1 plus qpf with 850 and 2m below with a little warm wedge at 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like snow/ice for the far burbs and mountains, verbatim. 850's and 2m temps are both above freezing for I-95 for NY south. Even in NY 850's are warmer than 2m temps by a smidge, so this would probably be ice and not snow. The map he posted shows 850's below freezing for NYC and surface temps are a hair above freezing at the same time frame. Unless there's other levels above freezing, that's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like snow/ice for the far burbs and mountains, verbatim. 850's and 2m temps are both above freezing for I-95 for NY south. Even in NY 850's are warmer than 2m temps by a smidge, so this would probably be ice and not snow. The image I previously posted clearly shows NYC with subfreezing 850s, and the city would likely be below freezing at the surface as well (the line is just barely N of NYC at 108). As depicted, this is 2-4" for NYC proper, and a gain for the snowpack rather than a loss with minimal non-frozen QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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