IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ATM your NWS for Pompton plains is calling for a snow to wintry mix to snowshowers and they have actually not mentioned any total QPF amounts.... I was asking about the DGEX model which seems to be showing a massive rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I was asking about the DGEX model which seems to be showing a massive rainstorm looked like 1-1.5" temps mid to upper 30's NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lakes cutter on the GFS. What a difference betweeh the Euro, GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 LOL - 18Z GFS is a huge rainstorm for everyone at 129. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18 Z GFS says "its gonn rain" (a lot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 LOL - 18Z GFS is a huge rainstorm for everyone at 129. Barely any overrunning precip in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Over an inch and half for eastern half of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not a good run verbatum, but the trend is pretty good: the surface low center 00Z Wed jumps from north of Toronto on the 12Z to around Binghamton on the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Soaking rains up and down the coast. If this run verifies, say bye bye to the snow from NYC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thinking 0z's tonight will begin to converge on a general track. GFS seems to be in limbo atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Perhaps the most important thing to take away from this run (instead of jumping off cliffs ) is the SE movement it just took from the last run... 12 Z 18 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Soaking rains up and down the coast. If this run verifies, say bye bye to the snow from NYC to Boston. It was definitely nice while it lasted. I'm not saying that things are set in stone for a heavy rainstorm but it doesn't look too good right now. Also if the DGEX or 18z gfs verify, probably 90-95% of are snow pack will be gone. In fact, the only thing left after would be snow piles. There would be flooding concerns, maybe not major, but definitely flood concerns considering the current snow pack, the potential for over an inch or rain and the frozen ground. I only hope we don't get that much rain or it ends up being colder. FWIW, after the boxing day storm that gave us over 20", we were down to about 6-7" and that was with only .2" of rain and couple days of temps in the upper 40s/50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS isn't really cold in the long range. Which model do we believe? Euro or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS isn't really cold in the long range. Which model do we believe? Euro or GFS? honestly, at this point its not worth worrying about. Its at least a week and a half out and many things will change. If you're set on having some sort of expectations for the cold outbreak assume a compromise between the two. That way there isn't as much room for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Perhaps the most important thing to take away from this run (instead of jumping off cliffs ) is the SE movement it just took from the last run... Now all we need is another 200-250 miles SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Also if you look at the 240 hr map you can see how a little west based -NAO could go a long way in pushing that serious cold south. I haven't looked at the forecasts for the medium-long range wrt to the state of the NAO but it doesn't appear likely that we'll have as favorable a block as we did this month and in mid-late dec. Will it return? I believe it will but probably not in January. When it returns so do our chances of big snows. Until then it appears we might have to deal with your garden variety cold and snow (some winters this would be welcomed!), which I dont think anyone will complain about, especially when 1/2 of the way through met winter there have been between 5 and 10 days above normal (some only 2 or 3 above btw..), with snowcover for the past 2 and a half wks (which will undoubtedly be around 20-25days before this next storm makes a huge dent in the snowpack) Its rained like 3 times lol and we already have between 25-40in of snow region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I feel like this very cold outbreak has been 10 days away for a few weeks now. It seems like it happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I feel like this very cold outbreak has been 10 days away for a few weeks now. It seems like it happens every year. actually the first advertised cold outbreak was with the storm on the 18th and 19th and it appears likely now that while cold it probably wont be more than 10 degrees below normal. Things could change if the storm is more intense or if the northern stream digs more dragging some cold air down but it seems that'll be on the order of most of the cold we've experienced thus far. The next possibility seems to be around the day 10 range and it will probably be a little more robust (at least IMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Now all we need is another 200-250 miles SE. Well lets see we have the UKMET @ 12 Z looking like this... GGEM GGEM means ECM @ 120 (no image available for 132) ECM means The point is that the GFS seems to be way out in left field compared to the rest of the guidance at this present point and time but it does show a SE movement between 12 Z and 18 Z and we will probably see another SE movement at 00z ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS isn't really cold in the long range. Which model do we believe? Euro or GFS? lol what the -10 850 line hovers between phl and nyc the whole run, with a strong high parked in se canada, thats plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 lol what the -10 850 line hovers between phl and nyc the whole run, with a strong high parked in se canada, thats plenty cold metsfan is usually not guilty of this but after a snowstorm there tends to be a lot of negativity surrounding the future pattern if there isn't another snow threat on the horizon, and ESPECIALLY when there is a possibility of a cutter . Just an observation. I will gladly take 2 amazing storms in 2 and a half weeks and hedge that the pattern recurs with more snow and cold a wk or 2 down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 metsfan is usually not guilty of this but after a snowstorm there tends to be a lot of negativity surrounding the future pattern if there isn't another snow threat on the horizon, and ESPECIALLY when there is a possibility of a cutter . Just an observation. I will gladly take 2 amazing storms in 2 and a half weeks and hedge that the pattern recurs with more snow and cold a wk or 2 down the line. Absolutely, but hey look how well we bounced back after the mini thaw around New Year's eve through the first couple of days in Jan. Although this time, we don't have the -NAO to help us, but that doesn't mean we can't get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 here are the 18z indiv ens runs http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 here are the 18z indiv ens runs http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Only 3 of them (and probably 2) show a frozen event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Only 3 of them (and probably 2) show a frozen event here. was just going to point that out. Not very encouraging. At this point I'm rooting for light rain and 40 degrees to preserve the snowpack lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Only 3 of them (and probably 2) show a frozen event here. was just going to point that out. Not very encouraging. At this point I'm rooting for light rain and 40 degrees to preserve the snowpack lol compare it to 12z, slight improvement http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 here are the 18z indiv ens runs http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Certainly not all of them are as warm or amplified as the OP. Still have to lean towards a rain event, but some members are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Certainly not all of them are as warm or amplified as the OP. Still have to lean towards a rain event, but some members are interesting. I stil think its doubtful we end up with a wrapped up cutter bringing 40-50 degree temps and massive rain. If I were a betting man I'd go with anywhere from 2-6 inches in overrunning snow with another half inch or so of light rain as a weak storm passes to our south and east. Temps around 40. Snowpack stays intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Given the lack of cold air lingering post clipper it's a slop storm that might coax some snow in the mtns...could be some zr or sleet though. Not going to be a GFS scenario from 12z with 60 and rain. 40 seems more doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Given the lack of cold air lingering post clipper it's a slop storm that might coax some snow in the mtns...could be some zr or sleet though. Not going to be a GFS scenario from 12z with 60 and rain. 40 seems more doable. seems we're in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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