jjvesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just that bit of elevation works wonders sometimes. I've been in rain on 23 and it switches over to Snow somewhere on Union Valley Road. What were arguing over is semantics anyway since with the wind blowing it into drifts its difficult to get an accurate measurement. The point is...their is a lot of snow up their. I would think the snow depth is pretty much the same area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just that bit of elevation works wonders sometimes. I've been in rain on 23 and it switches over to Snow somewhere on Union Valley Road. What were arguing over is semantics anyway since with the wind blowing it into drifts its difficult to get an accurate measurement. The point is...their is a lot of snow up their. elevation had nothing to do with these storms , i know where tha lake is as not to far from one of my friends at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 nam sim radar at hr 84, looks like its showing what the gfs has with the overunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 nam sim radar at hr 84, looks like its showing what the gfs has with the overunning Tombo, any word on the EURO ens for next week? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 elevation had nothing to do with these storms , i know where tha lake is as not to far from one of my friends at all The only reason why I mentioned the elevation is their is definily a temperature difference between where I am and that area. The storm we got in February was a great example of how the eleveation and temperature differences led to them getting 2-3' thanks to the higher ratios and me getting 12-18' of slop. Their was also plenty of snow still on the ground from the 12/26 event despite the big warm up. Since I didn't actually measure the snow depth I'm just going to let this one go, and take note that you have basically have called me an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tombo, any word on the EURO ens for next week? Thanks i dont have acces to the true euro ens, all i have is what everyone else does which is the ones on allan's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 6z dgex had something similar, 2-4" overrunning, then a rain storm. I will take that anyday with this setup. 18z dgex should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 6z dgex had something similar, 2-4" overrunning, then a rain storm. I will take that anyday with this setup. 18z dgex should be out soon yea that overunning would help. get 2-4 then melt that 2-4 with the rain and we still have the existing snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Better get my snow blower ready again for the weekend clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yea that overunning would help. get 2-4 then melt that 2-4 with the rain and we still have the existing snowpack 2-4/3-6 overrunning then a cold rain would definitely preserve our snowpack..esp if we only see around 0.5-0.75 in of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Better get my snow blower ready again for the weekend clipper. better raise the intake, im not sure it will all fit in one pass. You may have to make two passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yea that overunning would help. get 2-4 then melt that 2-4 with the rain and we still have the existing snowpack i think that would be the best case scenario, next to a weaker modeled storm with light overrunning snow/mix and light rain afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 better raise the intake, im not sure it will all fit in one pass. You may have to make two passes. I know.. I'm also gonna upgrade the engine from a 4 to 6 cylindar to get that additional horsepower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Better get my snow blower ready again for the weekend clipper. ct jackpot again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ct jackpot again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think we can agree there is a decent snow pack across NNJ of ~6-18". With the next system lacking cold air there is a threat of a mixed bag of precip of snow to ice to rain. Perhaps an 1" or more of qpf. That does raise the threat of some form of flooding whether urban and street or river and stream. Also with the possiblilty of cold air being entranced at the surface for a period of time there remains the threat of a period of icing in some locales. Let us leave it at that for now till it is better know the specifics of qpf and precip type are more certian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm not a complete idiot am I when I spoke about the flood potential?? From the updated discussion from Upton.. .HYDROLOGY... FOR SAT AFTN AND EVENING...UP TO A 1 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT AS LOW PRES MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE SNOW PACK WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND SETTLE WITH LITTLE MELTING EACH DAY AS ICE FORMS ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If you are on the coastal plains prepare for rain if you are further inland it will be more of a snow/ice threat....at the present time of how it looks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm not a complete idiot am I when I spoke about the flood potential?? From the updated discussion from Upton.. .HYDROLOGY... FOR SAT AFTN AND EVENING...UP TO A 1 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT AS LOW PRES MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE SNOW PACK WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND SETTLE WITH LITTLE MELTING EACH DAY AS ICE FORMS ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. nobody called you an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm not a complete idiot am I when I spoke about the flood potential?? From the updated discussion from Upton.. .HYDROLOGY... FOR SAT AFTN AND EVENING...UP TO A 1 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN CONNECTICUT, WITH .0000000000001 ELSEWHERE, AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT AS LOW PRES MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE SNOW PACK WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND SETTLE WITH LITTLE MELTING EACH DAY AS ICE FORMS ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. Sorry... just needed a quick edit on Saturday's event.... nothing regarding the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Going to be very tough to keep it all frozen with the lack of blocking. Any substantial amounts of frozen precipitation that anybody receives in this local area given the upper air pattern depicted by most models would be a gift to say the least. The DGEX shows some good low level cold intrusion even despite a very poor synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GGEM ensemble means @ 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice month we have going on here. Inevitably there's always a warm up or rain storm. And we will probably get both next week. But even in this less than ideal upcoming period we have a chance for snowshowers on Sat and then a system that could actually deliver a few more inches of snow in a few different ways. The Euro and GGEM actually threaten a pretty good inland snowstorms - and god knows they could use it. Good snowpack builder for the ski areas. Warm up looks brief. Might not break 40F. And probably not for long if so. We definitely need a snowstorm here.. Had only about 9" and the seasonal norm is 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 you know tell me where and ill meet you their. I can take pictures of piles of snow to, there total snow for the year is 34 inches(and thats at 1100 feet elevation) mine is 33.30. All towns lost significant snow from that mild spell. they dont have anywhere near 2 to 3 feet of snow pack especially considering they have not even had 3 ft for the year. Obviously we know know not to take your totals to seriously in the future. Make sure you stick the lower numbers of the ruler in the snow first. perhaps you put the ruler in backwards lol Yeah, there are some 2ft drifts in my yard in CNJ as well (prior to the last storm they were 15" drifts). Nothing special or confined to West Milford. Snow depth on NOAA indicates 8-16" depth up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOAA says 1-2" QPF in the snowpack. A few more inches of snow followed by heavy rain could lead to flooding. I was not trying to make it seem as if flooding was imminent. I'm not going to argue either with NOAA as far as what the snowpack is for obvious reasons. Even if we don't get flooding out of this storm, the snowpack seems to keep getting replenished so the potential will be their come March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 dgex is showing a massive rainstorm lol http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html sorry guys i cant answer, this was my last allowed post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 dgex is showing a massive rainstorm lol http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html What would the QPF on that be for Northern Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 dgex is showing a massive rainstorm lol http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html what could you see happening that would switch it over to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would think it would be the combination of rainfall and ice jams that would create most of the flooding. The rainfall and water content in the snowpack is likely not enough to cause widespread flooding, but snow and ice can do funny things to drainage areas and rivers/streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What would the QPF on that be for Northern Jersey? ATM your NWS for Pompton plains is calling for a snow to wintry mix to snowshowers and they have actually not mentioned any total QPF amounts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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