Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks like the pesky great lakes low is still there associated with the northern s/w, so temperatures aloft are gong to rise even if the coastal low takes a good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does any precip fall before hour 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think the problem is going to be the northern stream not digging enough, so the heights rise quickly in the east as the coastal low travels up the coast and the northern energy lifts out... Interesting development though.... and we all know how the northern stream energy has trended so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks like the pesky great lakes low is still there associated with the northern s/w, so temperatures aloft are gong to rise even if the coastal low takes a good track Sounds like a worst case scenario ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 992 low about 75 miles east of acy....850s in central pa, where no precip is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the northern stream low and the high sliding ne is what kills it again, brings in southerly flow and warms everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does any precip fall before hour 120? very little... about .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sounds like a worst case scenario ice storm? January 7-8, 1994 analog? http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94-850MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 138 has a sub 984 bout on top of bos...850s coming back in but the precip is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 by the way.. that 50-50 tombo was just mentioning.. it was around 1000 mb at 00Z.. now it's forecasted sub 988 mb.. so big difference. It lifts out quickly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 wow.. cold air rushes in quickly at 138 with bombing low.. major hit for mid hudson valley up through Albany at that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 at 126, 850 line runs between northshore of LI and mainland down through central pa..... 32 line is back back into quebec.. so the BL warms immediatly while the upper layers hold ground a bit longer..132 850 line retreats to CNY, and runs alongside the northern border of MASS ... weird how the boundry "torches" so fast, yet the upper levels hold on stronger.. I would have thought the other way around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The primary remains potent enough to allow WAA and hgts ahead of it to rise along the EC, but with the model looking better aloft at 500mb, it is certainly possibly to see a weakening trend of the primary and a quicker secondary. This is especially true if we have some resemblance of a pseudo 50/50 which allows the confluence to remain dominant and prevent the primary from cutting as much. Still a ways away, a lot will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Again, I don't see this storm as a threat except maybe the higher elevations or the Poconos. We're going through an unfavorable MJO phase, the NAO is positive. The GGEM and Gfs say rain with a little bit of sleet or freezing rain in NE PA/NW NJ before the changeover. Whatever cold high that is building is too far west, we lack the 50/50 low, and the high to the east is too far east and does not become entrenched to create the CAD. I know it's still a few days out there but it's not looking good, even for sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 at 126, 850 line runs between northshore of LI and mainland down through central pa..... 32 line is back back into quebec.. so the BL warms immediatly while the upper layers hold ground a bit longer..132 850 line retreats to CNY, and runs alongside the northern border of MASS ... weird how the boundry "torches" so fast, yet the upper levels hold on stronger.. I would have thought the other way around.. Is NYC still below 0C at 126 and 132? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 .75 precip all the way back to MDT and of course 850's don't crash thru until the precip has exited the region, great track, no cold. The combo of a SE flow from the high that has exited stage right of ME and the SW flow from the Ohio Valley basically kills this thing for the region, at least as presetly modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 wow.. cold air rushes in quickly at 138 with bombing low.. major hit for mid hudson valley up through Albany at that timeframe verbatim, the 32 line is still on the US/canadian border, still some p-type issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Is NYC still below 0C at 126 and 132? only 126.. and just barely.. definitely not 132. it is just north of albany at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Is NYC still below 0C at 126 and 132? negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 wow.. cold air rushes in quickly at 138 with bombing low.. major hit for mid hudson valley up through Albany at that timeframe Yes... BL layer looks torched though even though the heights crash and 850s resolve themselves... Regardless, this has my attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 verbatim, the 32 line is still on the US/canadian border, still some p-type issues? I would say that would turn over to a very wet snow with cold upper level temps rushing in and dynamic cooling through the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Is NYC still below 0C at 126 and 132? no by 126 0 line at 850 is about 50- 60 miles north of YC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Is NYC still below 0C at 126 and 132? 850s ar3 just north of nyc but the surface temp is like 40 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 850s ar3 just north of nyc but the surface temp is like 40 or so Hmm, 126 sounds like an interesting frame for the elevated NW suburbs...especially considering the Euro's known warm bias. I especially wouldn't be concerned about what 2m temperatures it's showing beyond the first couple of days, but we need to get rid of that pesky northern stream low over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 based on the trajectory.. that slug of wicked cold air looks like it might be a glancing blow to northern new england.. but i'll let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So Ice storm cancel? I was thinking all along the primary threat is heavy rain and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So Ice storm cancel? I was thinking all along the primary threat is heavy rain and flooding. If temps are in the mid 30's to around 40 with a low to the east, flooding would not be a big concern. As with those temps the snowpack could absorb the majority of the moisture. Once you start to get temps above 40-45...then you have worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 based on the trajectory.. that slug of wicked cold air looks like it might be a glancing blow to northern new england.. but i'll let it play out. yea the first initial cold is a glancing blow. U might see another cutter or phasing event post 180 then that other cold blast in central canada comes in behind it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 just looking at the models, the euro is prob the best case scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So Ice storm cancel? I was thinking all along the primary threat is heavy rain and flooding. if you look at that 1/7/94 analog someone posted, it showed a cold front coming through and staying to our south while a storm moved along it...doesnt seem that we have anything here that either holds in the cold air or delivers a fresh supply of it--I'd say Mainly rain for the NYC area except well well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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