chrisNJ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've lived in the LV for about 6 years, and the temps always seem to be forecasted to go above 32 in these situations and that never happens. I'd imagine from the LV northward, temps stay at or below freezing Tuesday. Could get nasty around here for both commutes Tuesday. As for me, I'll be staying near Belmar, NJ for 3 days so I'll miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Mike, I went over the briefing, excellent job. Was this around in 2007? I was unaware of this and when did it go into effect? I would not have been so critical about this storm. Thanks Just saw your message. The briefings online were not availble in 2007. They started late last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18Z RGEM quite warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 My point and click forecast....for zip code 07444 Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 22. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow before 9am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 9am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 35. Northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. First off, I doubt seriously the snow hangs on till 9am. Second, it doesn't call for a complete changover until noon so that would mean several hours (3+) of freezing rain. Third, it will most likely be in the 20's until 10-11 am and just from experience their is a big difference between freezing rain at 32 and 28. Lastly, still got 6-12" of snow on the ground, with another 1-3 on the way, will help to hold down the temps. Also, the wind is out of the northeast, which should favor colder temps. Hard to justify the lack of a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Upton precip maps for Tuesday/Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 First off, I doubt seriously the snow hangs on till 9am. Second, it doesn't call for a complete changover until noon so that would mean several hours (3+) of freezing rain. Third, it will most likely be in the 20's until 10-11 am and just from experience their is a big difference between freezing rain at 32 and 28. Lastly, still got 6-12" of snow on the ground, with another 1-3 on the way, will help to hold down the temps. Also, the wind is out of the northeast, which should favor colder temps. Hard to justify the lack of a watch. I definitely think we need a watch in Westchester...there is a significant potential for damming with the coastal keeping winds more E/NE as opposed to SE. We also have a very cold antecedent airmass with highs only expected to be in the low 20s tomorrow and some radiational cooling occurring on Monday evening. For areas outside NYC with some elevation (I'm at 350'), we could be talking about a very nasty situation with widespread icing on top of snow-coated roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just saw your message. The briefings online were not availble in 2007. They started late last year. Thanks. These briefings are an excellent method of informing those in EM that are not familiar with meteorological terms and scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Point and click for West Milford...they now never get above 32. Again, where is the watch? Monday Night: Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 14. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday: Snow before 9am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 9am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 32. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain, mainly before midnight. Low around 26. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For those of you tossing out comments like "where is the watch?"... A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued if there is at least 50 percent confidence that warning criteria snow and/or ice would be met. This upcoming event is currently in the third to fourth period of the forecast cycle. It is probably not a good idea in just start throwing out watches everytime there is a threat because then we would have to be concerned about overdoing it. Based on what I have read and heard, this is thought to be looking like an advisory type event. Can things change? Sure. However, there continues to be snow and ice in the forecast and the threat of this event continues to be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 From Upton SO IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AND A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NIGHT SHIFT...WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For those of you tossing out comments like "where is the watch?"... A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued if there is at least 50 percent confidence that warning criteria snow and/or ice would be met. This upcoming event is currently in the third to fourth period of the forecast cycle. It is probably not a good idea in just start throwing out watches everytime there is a threat because then we would have to be concerned about overdoing it. Based on what I have read and heard, this is thought to be looking like an advisory type event. Can things change? Sure. However, there continues to be snow and ice in the forecast and the threat of this event continues to be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. I understand that, but this is a potentially very dangeous situation, and this likely ends up as a blanket winter weather advisory because of the snow and ice combo. Therefore, most of the general public is unaware of the seriousness of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For those of you tossing out comments like "where is the watch?"... A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued if there is at least 50 percent confidence that warning criteria snow and/or ice would be met. This upcoming event is currently in the third to fourth period of the forecast cycle. It is probably not a good idea in just start throwing out watches everytime there is a threat because then we would have to be concerned about overdoing it. Based on what I have read and heard, this is thought to be looking like an advisory type event. Can things change? Sure. However, there continues to be snow and ice in the forecast and the threat of this event continues to be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Thanks for explanation. Several posters want to use this WSW as IMBY is worse weather conditions than your backyard. They do not understand the repercussions of the weather service "crying wolf syndrome" when broadcasting a WSW. There are thousands of business relying on that forecast. This upcoming storm event appears to be either an advisory event or maybe an ice storm warning event. Why would one to issue a WSW when the models QPF differ on just about every run? I would wait has late as possible on this public announcment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 and just for the record, my post is not IMBY. I live in Morris County and my arguement is that Sussex, Warren, Northern Passaic, Orange and the Poconos belong in a watch. And why a WSW? I've never seen an ice storm watch issued for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks for explanation. Several posters want to use this WSW as IMBY is worse weather conditions than your backyard. They do not understand the repercussions of the weather service "crying wolf syndrome" when broadcasting a WSW. There are thousands of business relying on that forecast. This upcoming storm event appears to be either an advisory event or maybe an ice storm warning event. Why would one to issue a WSW when the models QPF differ on just about every run? I would wait has late as possible on this public announcment You make a good point, but if you wait till the last minute you run the risk of having people being unprepared for what could be a significant ice storm for many. Waiting so long could result in people traveling on a day when they should not be traveling..and thats when you get injuries or even deaths. Bad strategy IMO Im not suggesting you issue warnings way ahead of time...but 6 hours before the thing starts isnt a good idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For those of you tossing out comments like "where is the watch?"... A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued if there is at least 50 percent confidence that warning criteria snow and/or ice would be met. This upcoming event is currently in the third to fourth period of the forecast cycle. It is probably not a good idea in just start throwing out watches everytime there is a threat because then we would have to be concerned about overdoing it. Based on what I have read and heard, this is thought to be looking like an advisory type event. Can things change? Sure. However, there continues to be snow and ice in the forecast and the threat of this event continues to be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Great explanation Mike. It seems too many people here get bent out of shape if a watch or warning isn't issued, like it's some kind of magical incantation to a larger or more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I understand that, but this is a potentially very dangeous situation, and this likely ends up as a blanket winter weather advisory because of the snow and ice combo. Therefore, most of the general public is unaware of the seriousness of the situation. I am not going to argue back and forth about this. But, do you have proof of this (bolded part above)? There continues to be snow and ice in the forecast, therefore I think the majority of the public who is paying attention knows there is a wintry mess coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For those of you tossing out comments like "where is the watch?"... A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued if there is at least 50 percent confidence that warning criteria snow and/or ice would be met. This upcoming event is currently in the third to fourth period of the forecast cycle. It is probably not a good idea in just start throwing out watches everytime there is a threat because then we would have to be concerned about overdoing it. Based on what I have read and heard, this is thought to be looking like an advisory type event. Can things change? Sure. However, there continues to be snow and ice in the forecast and the threat of this event continues to be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. This one ought to be made into a separate thread in pinned. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The snowpack should be able to handle the rain, but the clogged drains might be another story, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I am not going to argue back and forth about this. But, do you have proof of this (bolded part above)? There continues to be snow and ice in the forecast, therefore I think the majority of the public who is paying attention knows there is a wintry mess coming. Asking around today, mostly with friends, family and neighbors, most think were in for 2-3" of snow which changes to rain. I realize thats not a large enough sample to be scientific about it but nobody at the fire house was mentioning ice this morning either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The snowpack should be able to handle the rain, but the clogged drains might be another story, 18z GFS really pounds the area with rain. Here is the total QPF, most of which is liquid, especially in NYC and LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks for explanation. Several posters want to use this WSW as IMBY is worse weather conditions than your backyard. They do not understand the repercussions of the weather service "crying wolf syndrome" when broadcasting a WSW. There are thousands of business relying on that forecast. This upcoming storm event appears to be either an advisory event or maybe an ice storm warning event. Why would one to issue a WSW when the models QPF differ on just about every run? I would wait as late as possible on this public announcment The NWS tries its best to avoid this. We do not want to be putting up watches, warnings or advisories at the very last minute as it basically does no good at that point. In the case of this upcoming event, appropriate headlines will probably be issued early Monday morning which is still plenty of time as the precipitation is not expected to start until Monday night. As a stepping stone, the event is continuing to be mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Asking around today, mostly with friends, family and neighbors, most think were in for 2-3" of snow which changes to rain. I realize thats not a large enough sample to be scientific about it but nobody at the fire house was mentioning ice this morning either. Okay, but it depends on where they are getting their weather forecast information from. The NWS has been including ice in the forecast for awhile now for this upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 New thread here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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