_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 having a NE/NNE wind was a key feature of the 1994 ice storms. I remember those Feb 1994 storms separated by 36 hours, wow! I'm curious, is there any rogue model that would give NYC/Western LI a NNE wind? Also, would western LI fall under the NYC umbrella if they were to get ice storm conditions.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 rough approximation of the ECMWF track for TUE/WED: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anybody remember what happened with an event on 1/11-13/1994?? I'm looking on the narr maps and it looks like a pretty similar setup. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0111.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0112.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0113.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So what is Euro Showing for Tues storm ? Looking at track above that to me spells a colder track and thus more snow/Ice..Sounds like a couple people in here are concerned about potential interior Ice storm setting up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anybody remember what happened with an event on 1/11-13/1994?? I'm looking on the narr maps and it looks like a pretty similar setup. http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0111.php http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0112.php http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0113.php NYC got a few inches of snow before it changed to sleet and freezing rain...Temperatures got above freezing near the end of the event...Ice on tree limbs and pwer lines from the 1/8 storm started to melt and many bridges were closed due to falling ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So what is Euro Showing for Tues storm ? Looking at track above that to me spells a colder track and thus more snow/Ice..Sounds like a couple people in here are concerned about potential interior Ice storm setting up ? same theme as before, 2m temps warm quickly as the steady precip comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NYC got a few inches of snow before it changed to sleet and freezing rain...Temperatures got above freezing near the end of the event...Ice on tree limbs and pwer lines from the 1/8 storm started to melt and many bridges were closed due to falling ice... Thanks Unc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Tombo or anyone...Do you know how to get the synopsis of a weather event...the one or I should say 3 events were back to back to back Ice Storms that happened, mainly in the S.Pocono's(N Poc.'s got more Snow/Sleet)...this was late 2005 into the first days of 2006 "IF"' i'm remembering right...these 3 storms devastated our area...I do remember a young gun named MGorse wrote it (the synopsis)....Any help would be Greatly Appreciated,plus it would make for some interesting reading for other's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Tombo or anyone...Do you know how to get the synopsis of a weather event...the one or I should say 3 events were back to back to back Ice Storms that happened, mainly in the S.Pocono's(N Poc.'s got more Snow/Sleet)...this was late 2005 into the first days of 2006 "IF"' i'm remembering right...these 3 storms devastated our area...I do remember a young gun named MGorse wrote it (the synopsis)....Any help would be Greatly Appreciated,plus it would make for some interesting reading for other's... It was 2005.. http://www.erh.noaa....52005PNSPHI.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Touchy call but current rough thinking outlined in map just issued to those that locally ask me whats up. Not 100% support for this as it could easily be a situation where warm air floods in quickly at all levels with barely any frozen precip. Equally may also be one of those situations were some favored areas are stubborn to get above freezing thus remain all or mostly frozen. Of course then this needs to be matched up with total qpf. A dynamic forecast in that the situation will be constantly changing and shifting. Regardless there does remain a risk for moderate to perhaps significant icing in the N&W interior locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thank You very much...just reading that brought a shiver to me...some were out of power for 15 days... It was 2005.. http://www.erh.noaa....52005PNSPHI.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 my recollection from the 07 sleet storms in NYC was that the models were FAR too war below h85 this far out... They got consistently colder and colder... before finally getting it right about 12-24 out... Should be VERY interesting... or not depending on whether you like ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 my recollection from the 07 sleet storms in NYC was that the models were FAR too war below h85 this far out... They got consistently colder and colder... before finally getting it right about 12-24 out... Should be VERY interesting... or not depending on whether you like ice. Those events had a cold HP centered in a favorable spot in se Canada though supplying a low level feed, not one that was retreating offshore. I agree that many areas will end up holding onto the cold longer than the models are probably saying, but we will see how everything times, the cold will probably erode very easily once the notherly component is lost with the retreating high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those events had a cold HP centered in a favorable spot in se Canada though supplying a low level feed, not one that was retreating offshore. I agree that many areas will end up holding onto the cold longer than the models are probably saying, but we will see how everything times, the cold will probably erode very easily once the notherly component is lost with the retreating high Sure. It's the reason that the low was able to track so close to the shore... and yes agreed on wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18 z nam continues to show this possibly not being that much of a big deal west of I 95 or even anyone west of NYC at this point. The 12 Z GFS also has been slowing trending east with decent QPF 18 Z NAM at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18Z Nam is an Ice storm with basically no change over for Northern NJ including the immediate suburban area to the west of NYC and qpf under.25..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Personally I love the 18z NAM. <0.25" of QPF for Philly and despite some continued melting tomorrow, I may end up with some white left on the ground when all is said and done if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18Z Nam is an Ice storm with basically no change over for Northern NJ including the immediate suburban area to the west of NYC and qpf under.25..... I guess if you are into ice storms...this has been a decent trend. Light QPF and slightly cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18 z nam continues to show this possibly not being that much of a big deal west of I 95 or even anyone west of NYC at this point. The 12 Z GFS also has been slowing trending east with decent QPF 18 Z NAM at 60 hours it is a big deal for anyone west of NYC because its all ice - less then .25 qpf but that is plenty to create a very dangerous icing situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Tombo or anyone...Do you know how to get the synopsis of a weather event...the one or I should say 3 events were back to back to back Ice Storms that happened, mainly in the S.Pocono's(N Poc.'s got more Snow/Sleet)...this was late 2005 into the first days of 2006 "IF"' i'm remembering right...these 3 storms devastated our area...I do remember a young gun named MGorse wrote it (the synopsis)....Any help would be Greatly Appreciated,plus it would make for some interesting reading for other's... I was living in Blakeslee at the time, Jan 7th of 05 if I remember correctly. We got 4" of snow then the temperature dropped to the 20s with rain. I have more pictures of the ice buildup on surfaces...close to 2" We had no power for 10 days. Might be one of the reasons my wife wanted to move back to SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I remember those Feb 1994 storms separated by 36 hours, wow! I'm curious, is there any rogue model that would give NYC/Western LI a NNE wind? Also, would western LI fall under the NYC umbrella if they were to get ice storm conditions.? If you believe the 12Z NAM MOS the wind at JFK is 020-040 from 12Z-18Z at JFK yet somehow the temp does warm from 28 up to 40...if the NAM is correct on that wind direction the area probably does stay below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Seems NOAA's extended for NYC does not really show super cold for the end of next week, has that threat lessened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 QPF for days 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Do you think ice storm warnings or ZR advisories could fly tomorrow evening for most of the western 3/4 of OKX area. NE winds would keep western half LI and NYC around 30-31 degrees thru the entire event with .30-.55 inches of QPF. Good enough ZR advisory or marginal ISW criteria if we get .50 QPF ZR. We seem to be trending to ice storm for 5 boros and nassau county for Tuesday morning. Do not see the 32 line getting north of this area with damming and snowpack. The retreating high does not wipe out the chance for significant ZR coast with antecedent cold and deep snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What a shamefull prediction in my opinion. I think the low probability needs to be extended about 50 miles east and twenty miles south. And the area in the low should probably be in a medium risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If you believe the 12Z NAM MOS the wind at JFK is 020-040 from 12Z-18Z at JFK yet somehow the temp does warm from 28 up to 40...if the NAM is correct on that wind direction the area probably does stay below 32. I'm having a tough time grasping a handle on this storm, but this is what concerns me too. Wind flow is very light to begin with, and it remains ene at worst into Tuesday... I'm really not sure what to make of that, but I'd think that is not the way you get warm air advection at the surface. The airmass is pretty damn cold and even if the high is retreating, if it keeps an ene wind in Jan. then I'd think we'd stay cold enough even in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Mt Holly THE 1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLINGOF THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTH SHOW A VERYCLEAR SIGNAL FOR A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHON MONDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN ALOFT INDICATES A QUICK CHANGE TORAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAYMORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM DURING THE EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK ASTHOUGH IT WILL BE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GO FROM SNOW TO RAIN VERY QUICKLY ON THEDELMARVA, SOUTH OF THE CANAL, AND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THERE AND NO ICE IS ANTICIPATED.FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA ACROSS TO THE NORTHERNPART OF THE JERSEY SHORE, A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN BY MIDMORNING TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY FREEZINGRAIN IN THOSE AREAS WOULD TAKE PLACE DURING TUESDAY MORNING`S COMMUTE. FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, TO THE NORTH OF THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AND FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AWINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES ALONG WITH SOME ICE, A GRADUALCHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.SOME SPOTS IN EXTREME NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN THE POCONO REGIONMAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE MAY BE APROLONGED PERIOD OF ICE THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 How can the Poconos, Sussex, Warren and Western Passaic counties not be under a WSW? It seems now the NWS is very hesistant to issue watches unless they are very sure they will end up as warnings. Not every watch ends up as a warning, that's why they call them watches. This is a very dangerous potential event and the general public needs to be notified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS going with a cold forecast here at 350' in SW CT Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 3am. Low around 17. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday: Snow before 9am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 9am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 37. East wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain. Low around 30. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday: A chance of rain or freezing rain before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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