Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Upton's ice forecast.... nearly a quarter inch for many places in NNJ and the Hudson Valley with elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 H85 going to +4 with surface cold deeply entrenched Not a good situation for places north and west of the city, this could be a bad icestorm for many this may a better situation if ice storms is your thing. light drizzle or light rain would tend to freeze much easier at temps around 30 F compared to a steady rain. This has been my experience, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The light QPF makes it easier for the ice to accrue instead of just running off surfaces quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 this may a better situation if ice storms is your thing. light drizzle or light rain would tend to freeze much easier at temps around 30 F compared to a steady rain. This has been my experience, Ice isnt good, I'm one of the biggest snowfans around, but Ice is bad...and I think most posters will concur. Plus, it doesnt take much ice to cause massive problems, even a tenth of an inch is enough to bring down trees and power lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I like the part of his discussion I highlighted in red. Experience has shown me that it's difficult to maintain an icy scenario in the Lehigh Valley and lower elevations. It usually seems that the warm air wins out and a major ice storm is averted, even here in Tamaqua, which is 500 ft higher than the Valley and surrounding areas. Places that HAVE stayed cold enough and have had major ice storms has been the I-81 ridgetop, McAdoo, and some areas of the Poconos. Actually i disagree with this.... ABE is one of those areas where it always struggles to actually climb above freezing at the surface. I believe it was Rainshadow before whom had pointed this out as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually i disagree with this.... ABE is one of those areas where it always struggles to actually climb above freezing at the surface. I believe it was Rainshadow before whom had pointed this out as well... Isn't the Lehigh Valley the ice capital of the Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 don't know if anyone has ever used this site before, but is shows you accumulated precip type for the NAM and GFS and I've found it to be quite skilled at verifying. http://coolwx.com/cg...9&field=acctype Very helpful to tease out details in a complicated forecast - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 two types of events have not occured in the northeast and northern mid atlantic so far this winter - an ice storm and bitter - near record setting cold - both are on the table for this week.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually i disagree with this.... ABE is one of those areas where it always struggles to actually climb above freezing at the surface. I believe it was Rainshadow before whom had pointed this out as well... Voyager has pointed out recent ice storms because that is what he has seen in the last 5-10 years. Before this time frame, most ice storm events consisted of ABE being the last major city to go above freezing. Ice would accumulate on trees and wires but usually less than .25 inch because of the storm event going from snow to sleet to freezing rain with the freezing rain being light or even freezing drizzle for the warm frontal passage. Its always a storm event where the warm air eventually scours out the cold in the valley and turns to rain - like this next storm. What ABE has not experienced in the 20+ years that I have lived here is rain that changes to freezing rain after a cold front passage. Actually Tuesday night forecast worries me more than during the day. Rain after a cold frontal passage turning to freezing rain is a recipe for a disaster or as many would say- a crippling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Voyager has pointed out recent ice storms because that is what he has seen in the last 5-10 years. Before this time frame, most ice storm events consisted of ABE being the last major city to go above freezing. Ice would accumulate on trees and wires but usually less than .25 inch because of the storm event going from snow to sleet to freezing rain with the freezing rain being light or even freezing drizzle for the warm frontal passage. Its always a storm event where the warm air eventually scours out the cold in the valley and turns to rain - like this next storm. What ABE has not experienced in the 20+ years that I have lived here is rain that changes to freezing rain after a cold front passage. Actually Tuesday night forecast worries me more than during the day. Rain after a cold frontal passage turning to freezing rain is a recipe for a disaster or as many would say- a crippling event. You are pretty much spot on with this post. One thing though. I don't think I've ever seen an event where the rain flips to freezing rain post fropa. I'm not saying it can't or hasn't, just that I can't really recall an event like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Isn't the Lehigh Valley the ice capital of the Northeast? Yes i believe some actually have referred to this area as that ... I just know from experience that we hang on to the below freezing temps normally longer then the areas surrounding us! Not all the time, but majority of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I can tell you that NW NJ is the same way. Somehow or other, time after time with these types of storms we end up with a temperature between 30.5 and 31.5 and don't get above freezing until the precip ends. I don't know how this is even possible, but it happens almost every time with storms such as this one. It is truly amazing. Yes i believe some actually have referred to this area as that ... I just know from experience that we hang on to the below freezing temps normally longer then the areas surrounding us! Not all the time, but majority of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think it is the same for may spots North and West of the megalopolis...especially for some of the lower spots between the hills in my area. However with a stronger wind from the SE my spot will often warm up quicker with the increased elevation however with light winds it often takes a long time especially with our solid snowcover here in the Philly burbs to get above freezing. I can tell you that NW NJ is the same way. Somehow or other, time after time with these types of storms we end up with a temperature between 30.5 and 31.5 and don't get above freezing until the precip ends. I don't know how this is even possible, but it happens almost every time with storms such as this one. It is truly amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 Z GFS is still showing a decent amount of frozen QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes i believe some actually have referred to this area as that ... I just know from experience that we hang on to the below freezing temps normally longer then the areas surrounding us! Not all the time, but majority of the time! I think the Poconos technically get more ice, but the Lehigh Valley earns that name because the Poconos also get a lot more snow than the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think that areas just NW of I-95 from NJ into CT could be seeing a largely snow/ice event out of this. the models have slowly been trending colder and the 12z GFS is showing a nice slug of precip. of almost all of the ice events I've been through in CT, the nam is usually TOO WARM. if that holds true AND the deep snow-pack helps out, I could easily see a scenario where a good chunk of the area, away from the immediate shoreline, struggles to get out of the upper 20s/lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Getting ready for an icy mess in Berks county in a few days...Hoping for watches to go up soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Getting ready for an icy mess in Berks county in a few days...Hoping for watches to go up soon! it's tough, I read some of the NWS AFDs and they're more confident in advisory level amounts...their thinking seems to be either a mixture of snow and ice (not enough for a warning) or snow/ice going to rain and once again, not enough for a warning. I'm not sure I agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 it's tough, I read some of the NWS AFDs and they're more confident in advisory level amounts...their thinking seems to be either a mixture of snow and ice (not enough for a warning) or snow/ice going to rain and once again, not enough for a warning. I'm not sure I agree... Parts of Berks especially Fleetwood, Oley, Route 12/73/662 tend to hold on to the cold pretty long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_060.jpg <---GGEM looks wetter/west, temps not sure of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Parts of Berks especially Fleetwood, Oley, Route 12/73/662 tend to hold on to the cold pretty long... I know. I haven't read Mt. Holly (assuming that's the WFO?) I wonder what they're expecting for liquid equivalent precip down there? I did notice that HPC was a bit more robust with their icing outlook for eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looking at the 12z gfs soundings, the winds at the immediate surface are very light and at least looking at some Jersey soundings like EWR/MMU on bufkit , they have an ENE to almost a true northeast component throughout the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 it's tough, I read some of the NWS AFDs and they're more confident in advisory level amounts...their thinking seems to be either a mixture of snow and ice (not enough for a warning) or snow/ice going to rain and once again, not enough for a warning. I'm not sure I agree... Personally, if I were working at NWS, and it was borderline for a combination of snow AND ice, I'd rather be careful and issue the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I know. I haven't read Mt. Holly (assuming that's the WFO?) I wonder what they're expecting for liquid equivalent precip down there? I did notice that HPC was a bit more robust with their icing outlook for eastern PA. Yea they do luck pretty liberal with their icing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12Z GFS is very close to a major ice storm at Newark NJ http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes and I ran Morristown and Caldwell and the projected highs there were 33 throughout the entire storm, so areas just to the north and west of 80 and 287 may never get above freezing, as is so typical of such events in NW NJ. 12Z GFS is very close to a major ice storm at Newark NJ http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 even the NAM is basically showing a line from PHL-NYC-I-95 in CT only maxing out at 33/34F. Take into consideration the low track, low level wind direction, snow-pack and model bias to underestimate cold air damming and we could very well see a significant ice event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You are pretty much spot on with this post. One thing though. I don't think I've ever seen an event where the rain flips to freezing rain post fropa. I'm not saying it can't or hasn't, just that I can't really recall an event like that. Interstingly, this is in the HWO for Little Rock: My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes, I have been telling people at work for a couple of days now that I really doubt we get above freezing. We could, but I doubt it. Somehow with these storms we usually max out at 31 degrees. even the NAM is basically showing a line from PHL-NYC-I-95 in CT only maxing out at 33/34F. Take into consideration the low track, low level wind direction, snow-pack and model bias to underestimate cold air damming and we could very well see a significant ice event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looking at the 12z gfs soundings, the winds at the immediate surface are very light and at least looking at some Jersey soundings like EWR/MMU on bufkit , they have an ENE to almost a true northeast component throughout the event having a NE/NNE wind was a key feature of the 1994 ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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