tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Tombo, how much QPF does NYC get before the changeover? How about in my area like 25 miles north of Central Park? Is there an icing threat for the NW suburbs as the 850 line moves north but 2m temperatures stay cold? maybe .1-.2...the 2m temp retreats faster than the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The 06Z NAM continues to pour toilet water into the Tuesday martini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Mt Holly by DRAG ESSENTIALLY THEN FROM S TO N A TRACE TO 4 INCH EVENT....BULK OF FCSTAREA 1-3 INCHES IN SEVERAL HOURS LATE MONDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY MORNINGFOLLOWED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN I95 EWD WITH MAYBE AN HR OR2 OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT DO REMEMBER THE GROUND IS FROZEN SO ANYCLEARING OF THE SNOW PRIOR TO TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY PERMIT A AGREATER CHANCE OF UNTREATED ICY PAVEMENTS FOR A COUPLE OF HRSTUESDAY MORNING .FREEZING RAIN ICING AMOUNTS... GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.20 IN NE PAAND NW NJ THIS EVENT. PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AS TEMPS MAY RISEFASTER THAN INDICATED. BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON THE OUTPUT OF THEICE ACCUM TOOL. 00Z/16 NAM DID NOT LOOK REALISTIC...FAR TOO SLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLYLOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP ONTO ITSELF AS IT EVOLVES LOW PRES OFF THECOAST. 00Z GFS WAS USED AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FROMMIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD /NO 00Z NAM NOR THE RATHER WARM 00Z/16 ECMWF GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES BUTTHE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH WARMER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Mt Holly by DRAG ESSENTIALLY THEN FROM S TO N A TRACE TO 4 INCH EVENT....BULK OF FCSTAREA 1-3 INCHES IN SEVERAL HOURS LATE MONDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY MORNINGFOLLOWED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN I95 EWD WITH MAYBE AN HR OR2 OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT DO REMEMBER THE GROUND IS FROZEN SO ANYCLEARING OF THE SNOW PRIOR TO TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY PERMIT A AGREATER CHANCE OF UNTREATED ICY PAVEMENTS FOR A COUPLE OF HRSTUESDAY MORNING .FREEZING RAIN ICING AMOUNTS... GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.20 IN NE PAAND NW NJ THIS EVENT. PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AS TEMPS MAY RISEFASTER THAN INDICATED. BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON THE OUTPUT OF THEICE ACCUM TOOL. 00Z/16 NAM DID NOT LOOK REALISTIC...FAR TOO SLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLYLOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP ONTO ITSELF AS IT EVOLVES LOW PRES OFF THECOAST. 00Z GFS WAS USED AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FROMMIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD /NO 00Z NAM NOR THE RATHER WARM 00Z/16 ECMWF GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES BUTTHE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH WARMER. I like the part of his discussion I highlighted in red. Experience has shown me that it's difficult to maintain an icy scenario in the Lehigh Valley and lower elevations. It usually seems that the warm air wins out and a major ice storm is averted, even here in Tamaqua, which is 500 ft higher than the Valley and surrounding areas. Places that HAVE stayed cold enough and have had major ice storms has been the I-81 ridgetop, McAdoo, and some areas of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 As I have detailed before from the KU book....Philly in reality does very well with Miller B storms. Now BWI area....not so much. Miller A's are easier to predict, because they already exist, and they are likely to be a more sure "hit". However, Miller B's usually have a higher chance of being all snow. NYC area can cash in from both scenarios. From PHL South, I would MUCH rather have a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm surprised nobody talked about what the euro had for next sunday., it's depicting a pretty massive hit. It is 168 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 As I have detailed before from the KU book....Philly in reality does very well with Miller B storms. Now BWI area....not so much. Drag also forecasts for MT Holly ? Anyways Tuesday morning has a good chance of being a traffic nightmare especially the further you go north through central NJ especially from I95 NJ Turnpike and west and this not at all set in stone when the changeover to plain rain will actually be ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Never mind.. I didn't realize there was a separate thread for that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ice Storm update for the NW Philadelphia Suburbs per Wxsim module based off 6z GFS and NAM Snow starts around midnight tomorrow night temp at 23.8 Moderate snow by 3am with 1-2" of Snow by 6am IP/SN mix by 6am with a transition to ZR by 9am ZR continues till 11:30am when temps finally get above freezing. Total precip to this point is 0.95" (all frozen or ZR) Rain then till ending toward midnight Tuesday AM rush...will not be pleasant Stay safe Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Walt is now a member of the Mt Holly team Drag also forecasts for MT Holly ? Anyways Tuesday morning has a good chance of being a traffic nightmare especially the further you go north through central NJ especially from I95 NJ Turnpike and west and this not at all set in stone when the changeover to plain rain will actually be ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Walt is now a member of the Mt Holly team Should see some improvement down there with Drag on the team. Also lower Level cold air is going to be a little harder to overcome than most models show IMO, especially if the low remains off the coast. With a good snow pack over most of the NE and SNE, bl temps will likely stay colder than any model is currently compensating for - and the one or 2 degree compensation is extremely critical during this event and there is an above normal bust possibility .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Should see some improvement down there with Drag on the team. Also lower Level cold air is going to be a little harder to overcome than most models show IMO, especially if the low remains off the coast. With a good snow pack over most of the NE and SNE, bl temps will likely stay colder than any model is currently compensating for - and the one or 2 degree compensation is extremely critical during this event and there is an above normal bust possibility .... I wouldn't say improvement as much as I'd say a great addition to an already stellar office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 When you take a look at the HPC charts it makes me scratch my head. They have pushed the threat zone of > 4" of snow completely out of NJ and have lowered the probabilities even up into NE. Then, they expanded the freezing rain threat NE but again have pushed it out of NJ. The QPF map doesnt look imressive either considering their is heavy QPF modeled to be over the area at times. So basically, they are completely discounting the snow/ice threat for the I-95 corridor and more or less think we end up with slush. I understand the reasoning behind a conservative forecast but several model runs have shown a major ice storm for the I-95 corridor, especially north and west and it looks like those models are being discounted. When you look at the forecast lows for monday night, the position/strength of the high and with the snow pack, its hard to believe were going to get out of the low to mid 30's for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 When you take a look at the HPC charts it makes me scratch my head. They have pushed the threat zone of > 4" of snow completely out of NJ and have lowered the probabilities even up into NE. Then, they expanded the freezing rain threat NE but again have pushed it out of NJ. The QPF map doesnt look imressive either considering their is heavy QPF modeled to be over the area at times. So basically, they are completely discounting the snow/ice threat for the I-95 corridor and more or less think we end up with slush. I understand the reasoning behind a conservative forecast but several model runs have shown a major ice storm for the I-95 corridor, especially north and west and it looks like those models are being discounted. When you look at the forecast lows for monday night, the position/strength of the high and with the snow pack, its hard to believe were going to get out of the low to mid 30's for highs. It's not easy to get an ice storm in NYC metro. Even in 2008 that crazy icestorm was a high elevation sussex co event. Rest of us had ice, but nothing out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually the addition of Walt just adds to an all star team...kind of like the Phillies adding Cliff Lee...Go Phils! Weather wise I agree the snowpack that is in place for the Philly/NYC burbs will cause a difference. I actually ran my Wxsim module without the current snowcover to see the impact on the forecast. It resulted in an average 1 to 2 degree difference. And as we all know that can be a huge difference. Any way you slice it it appears to be very tricky early morning commute on Tuesday Should see some improvement down there with Drag on the team. Also lower Level cold air is going to be a little harder to overcome than most models show IMO, especially if the low remains off the coast. With a good snow pack over most of the NE and SNE, bl temps will likely stay colder than any model is currently compensating for - and the one or 2 degree compensation is extremely critical during this event and there is an above normal bust possibility .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's not easy to get an ice storm in NYC metro. Even in 2008 that crazy icestorm was a high elevation sussex co event. Rest of us had ice, but nothing out of the ordinary. The probability of such an even verifying shouldnt play a role when multiple models inside 72 hrs, which are probably not taking into account the snowpack are depicting major ice. In 2008, I was in Ramsey, (NE Bergen County) and we had significant ice. In fact, we were upgraded to an ice storm warning about half way through the event. It sticks out in my head because Its the only time I remember ever being in a county with an ice storm warning. The trees/cars were covered and it was quite a site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The probability of such an even verifying shouldnt play a role when multiple models inside 72 hrs, which are probably not taking into account the snowpack are depicting major ice. In 2008, I was in Ramsey, (NE Bergen County) and we had significant ice. In fact, we were upgraded to an ice storm warning about half way through the event. It sticks out in my head because Its the only time I remember ever being in a county with an ice storm warning. The trees/cars were covered and it was quite a site. I see your point, but the models haven't exactly endeared themselves to forecast confidence this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 don't know if anyone has ever used this site before, but is shows you accumulated precip type for the NAM and GFS and I've found it to be quite skilled at verifying. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=99&field=acctype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's not going to snow 12 inches with every storm. We have the potential here for a major winter storm and a very icy one at that and I for one am very excited. Snow lovers only have a week to wait. agreed...I came to this thread looking for a lot of posts and analysis but not finding much. Its like no one cares about a potential 1-3 incher followed by ice and then cold rain. Its still a decent interesting winter event to track when there is cad. Not sure why everyone has passed on this one. It most certainly will not be snowing a foot every storm and people will probably learn the hard way going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I wouldn't say improvement as much as I'd say a great addition to an already stellar office THANK YOU. If you had not said this, I sure would have. MIke Gorse and his team does an excellent job. THANKS MT HOLLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually the addition of Walt just adds to an all star team...kind of like the Phillies adding Cliff Lee...Go Phils! Weather wise I agree the snowpack that is in place for the Philly/NYC burbs will cause a difference. I actually ran my Wxsim module without the current snowcover to see the impact on the forecast. It resulted in an average 1 to 2 degree difference. And as we all know that can be a huge difference. Any way you slice it it appears to be very tricky early morning commute on Tuesday wait, Walt Drag is not in SNE any longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Current point and click forecast for my location: Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 19. East wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Tuesday: Snow and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 3pm, then rain or freezing rain likely between 3pm and 4pm, then freezing rain likely after 4pm. High near 32. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain likely before 3am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. For Bethlehem area in the LV: Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 21. Calm wind becoming northeast between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Tuesday: Snow and freezing rain before 11am, then rain or freezing rain between 11am and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High near 34. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Not sure if anyone posted this from the AFD this morning: IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEM IT APPEARS CONFINED TO THE NW 1/4 OF NJ INTO NE PA VCNTY KABE TO K12N NWWD AND AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE UNDER 1/4 INCH BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR GREATER AMOUNTS. JUST CANT BE SURE OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN COINCIDING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND RESULTANT ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 wait, Walt Drag is not in SNE any longer? Been almost a year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM has most of the heaviest precip off the coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 z nam on this run makes this basically a non event for anyone west of I 95. lacking qpf and pushed everything to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nam is predicting a prolonged period of Ice for Northern NJ and parts of NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamptype048.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamptype054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nam is predicting a prolonged period of Ice for Northern NJ and parts of NYC http://raleighwx.ame...namptype048.gif http://raleighwx.ame...namptype054.gif prolonged with hardly any qpf though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 H85 going to +4 with surface cold deeply entrenched Not a good situation for places north and west of the city, this could be a bad icestorm for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 prolonged with hardly any qpf though Doesn't take much qpf with ice to create a problem - plus the NAM is still in question regarding the qpf....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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