MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I like those highs up north on the ggem.Its also colder than last nights Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Disagree. By what Earthlight/Tombo said last night, the cold air was no where near any of us. The Canadian is very close to be a nice even for us. Cold air is close, but no cigar this run. It looks as if the GGEM would start as snow here and then change to rain, north of NYC in the suburbs. The 540m thickness line is right over NYC so it's a very close call. This event could produce a lot of headaches especially with the current snowpack and cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You're talking about the snowpack as if it's all fresh snow. Underneath the snow that just fell, there is a layer of rock hard snow. That's not going anywhere fast. Here is my opinion: 1. The snow pack along the major cities such as Newark, New York and maybe Philly if it rains, there will be urban flooding from the standing water from the melting of this snow pack and the fact that storm inlets are still blocked with snow. 2. Basements will flood because the ground is frozen and there is no place for the rain and snow melt runoff to go except in the lowest spot-- a basement. That will be one of the major problems we will hear throughout this storm event 3. The rivers will not flood. Why? Because as one poster has already said, there is no snow in the Poconos, Catskills (where the Delaware River Watershed is located) . The Raritan River may reach flood stage but that is a big maybe at this point unless we get 2 inches of rain 4. Everyrone has forgotten that many of the major stream and rivers are currently frozen. Ice jams could be a major problem resulting in flooding if it gets to warm. 5. Freezing rain is a good bet with this type of storm. Power outages are a possibility. But the worst ice storms occur when the rain falls on the backend of the storm and the cold front moves in too quickly. This is a warm frontal freezing rain event. Even though it will freezing rain, it may warm up enough to melt before it causes major problems. I guess we will see how this plays out 6 A good thump of snow for LV and north on the front end of the storm is a good bet. This is typical of these type of storms 7. This storm is a now cast storm based on the type of precip expected to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hard to tell, is this rain for us? Actually I like that GGEM. Although certainly not all snow, the low stays to the east, weaker, and definalty no torch rain per that run. Probably looking at a little snow, a lot of mix, and maybe some cold rain. Not a snowpack killer verabtim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the GGEM looks like a quick snow to mix event, even in the immediate suburbs of the big cities. While we go slightly above 0C at H85, the low takes a good track and there is a high in a good position on the GGEM, albeit somewhat weak. I would think in a setup like the GGEM shows, there would be a prolonged period of IP/ZR not far away from the coast due to the low level cold air that would stay in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Disagree. By what Earthlight/Tombo said last night, the cold air was no where near any of us. The Canadian is very close to be a nice even for us. Cold air is close, but no cigar this run. It is colder. Without being nit picky the surface low track of the Southern branch looks very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That would be correct. The dark grey line on the top right panel indicates no snow in SE PA. 850 0 degree line is more accurate than the 540 method, although who knows if and what kind of warmig would be going on at other levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm not worried about the Delaware Flooding, my main concern in the Passaic River in NJ. That river basin starts off in Northern Passaic County where the snowpack is just massive. I can personally attest to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The Current Wxsim module forecast for the NW Philadelphia burbs for Monday Snow arriving by noon with 2" (0.19") of snow accumulating by midnight when the snow will change to an IP/ZR (0.25" qpf) mix that will fall till around 9am on Tuesday morning. Heavy rain (1.23") before ending Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 alright, the euro is out to hr 36, lets see what it throws our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If you look at the 12z GFS and most guidance what I believe will play a large roll will be this weekends clipper disturbance. What is evident on the 12z GFS is that this weekends shortwave creates some resemblance of "blockiness" which prevents the area of HP from slipping out as quickly. This allows colder air to remain dominant for a longer duration and delivers a fresh source of cooler air. Some runs of the EURO and GGEM also had some resemblance of blocking, which resulted in a more coastal type track. If you will notice the 12z GFS keeps the primary low that cuts into the OV the main center of attention, but its solution looks a bit wacky considering it continues hour after hour to try and advance the LP into the area of confluence to no avail. This looks suspicious to me as one would expect either secondary development or futher placement S and E. Regardless the 12z GFS still shows a good amount of a 'front end' dump before temps warm at the surface. But like I said the most evident thing on 12z GFS is at 500mb as it now shows some blocking. What I consider the biggest factor is how much confluence will remain north before sliding out to sea, and whether this weekends shortwave can create some resemblance of blockiness or clutter upstream to prevent a quicker transition. This is what everyone should be looking at and focussing on in future models runs. How stubborn will the cold air be, will any blocking be present, and does the high pressure remain over us for an extended period of time (possibly as a result of the aforementioned factors)? Like many meteorologists in this thread have discussed, I believe there is potential present for front end snows at the least, will see what future model runs bring. We are still a while away from this event and much will change. This winter season seems to be very kind and seasons like this typically tend to be favorable, so at the least I would not be shocked to see a more favorable solution transpire. A lot of factors and influences to keep on eye on which will all have an impact on the eventual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 euro, brings some lgt precip with the clipper mainly m/d line north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GGEM also has an inch or so from the clipper at around 60 hours. Then 1"-3" from some WAA snows hours 84-102 before this event we are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 so far through hr 72 at h5 comparing 0z to 12z...deeper troff over the northeast and stronger s/w over tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 alright, the euro is out to hr 36, lets see what it throws our way Im also (maybe moreso) interested in the potentical freeze/ icebox potential beween the 20th and 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 through hr 84, the clipper that becomes a pseudo 50/50 is a good bit stronger...trofing over the northeast is stronger...the /s in the south is a little faster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 through hr 84, the clipper that becomes a pseudo 50/50 is a good bit stronger...trofing over the northeast is stronger...the /s in the south is a little faster.. yea.. was just noticing that with the 50-50.. it is much stronger.. heights over the northeast came down rather significantly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 1012 low 150 miles sse of hou...the northern stream is coming down a little faster than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 by the way.. that 50-50 tombo was just mentioning.. it was around 1000 mb at 00Z.. now it's forecasted sub 988 mb.. so big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 through hr 84, the clipper that becomes a pseudo 50/50 is a good bit stronger...trofing over the northeast is stronger...the /s in the south is a little faster.. This is exactly the feature I referenced in my post above. The GFS seemed to develop the clipper into the pseudo 50/50, it is nice to see that the EURO is also doing the same. Considering this was already a borderline event, any resemblance of blocking would be huge. The longer the confluence remains present the better our likelihood of seeing more white then wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 by the way.. that 50-50 tombo was just mentioning.. it was around 1000 mb at 00Z.. now it's forecasted sub 988 mb.. so big difference. LOVE IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 102 has a sub 1012 low just south of the la coast...the northern stream continues to come down a little faster than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just putting it out there, but with the faster southern s/w and a s/w coming through on the northern stream, does this set up seem a little similar to the past event? e.g. potential for miller B re-energizing the fast ejecting southern s/w... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 114 has a sub 1012 low over northern fl....while the northern stream low is by chicago...its a good bit colder than 0z...still might not help out the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just putting it out there, but with the faster southern s/w and a s/w coming through on the northern stream, does this set up seem a little similar to the past event? e.g. potential for miller B re-energizing the fast ejecting southern s/w... And looky what we have here at 120.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just putting it out there, but with the faster southern s/w and a s/w coming through on the northern stream, does this set up seem a little similar to the past event? e.g. potential for miller B re-energizing the fast ejecting southern s/w... by 120 thats what it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 120 has a sub 1008 low about 50 miles east of cape fear nc 850s are on the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 one things for sure.. the trof in the east has certainly taken on a more negative tilt whereas earlier it was essentially neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 126 has a sub 1000 low just north of hse. 850s back in wpa and northern pa lifting north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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