Animal Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Based on what the NAM is showing, I don't see NW NJ getting above freezing until the precip ends. Look like a nice ice storm for NW NJ. The GFS has been looking even worse than this. I have seen situations like this here too many times where it is supposed to get above freezing but somehow it never does until the precip ends. It usually sits around 31 degrees until it is over. I would not be to concerned. You may get freezing rain that does not freeze at temps around 30-31 because the precip rates are to intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The excitement here is just uncontainable...if this was the 06-07 winter there'd be 375 people in here right now and we'd be popping out pages of posts every 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm rooting for straight up rain vs. any zr........zr is no good for anybody. Hopefully the Friday potential can come together a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not a pretty picture for mid-morning Tuesday on the NAM (northwest of the big cities), AND if this run is too slow bringing moisture northward it could be downright ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The excitement here is just uncontainable...if this was the 06-07 winter there'd be 375 people in here right now and we'd be popping out pages of posts every 5 minutes. Yes, this event seems irrelevant right now considering the 12/26 and 1/12 blizzards and the threat for another major system Friday...I'm still hoping for 2-4" of snow followed by some icing in the suburbs Tuesday, as I think it's a good possibility this gets interesting in areas like mine which have a few hundred feet elevation and are protected somewhat from maritime air on E/SE winds. I also see the trend towards a stronger coastal, which should keep more of an E/NE component to winds instead of SE. This will make a huge difference, and I also believe it's going to take longer than normal to scour out the cold air because of the frigid antecedent airmass with 850s near -14C, the low SSTs due to the cold winter, and the extensive snowpack across the region. Could be a messy day Tuesday; I'm supposed to be subbing at the local high school but there is a chance for a delay or snow day, so I am following closely. Is there any chance the coastal storm can form further south, bomb out, and induce some dynamic cooling on the backside so that we change over eventually to wet snow instead of just RN/-RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Being a sw nass cnty resident (though currently in the Catskills where tomm night it's progged to be around zero) I'd hope the storm heads as far east as possible, I'll take anything that doesn't completely erode the snowpack. Also I have seen situations where it was progged to be in mid 30's but somehow on Long Island it gets into the low 50's while just 15 miles west it's in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Being a sw nass cnty resident (though currently in the Catskills where tomm night it's progged to be around zero) I'd hope the storm heads as far east as possible, I'll take anything that doesn't completely erode the snowpack. Also I have seen situations where it was progged to be in mid 30's but somehow on Long Island it gets into the low 50's while just 15 miles west it's in the 30's LI is not going to get into the 50s given that the low pressure cutting to the west is weak, there's a very cold antecedent airmass, and over a foot of snowpack remains. People are too worried about losing their snow in this storm. Even Central Park should still have a few inches left at the end of the system, and I don't expect to lose much at all here in Westchester with the frozen start to precipitation and the fact there's still 12-15" on the ground. This isn't a monster cutter, and the snowpack will remain intact especially with a quick return to cold following the storm. I wouldn't be surprised if we drop into the teens Wednesday night and start seeing single digits by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LI is not going to get into the 50s given that the low pressure cutting to the west is weak, there's a very cold antecedent airmass, and over a foot of snowpack remains. People are too worried about losing their snow in this storm. Even Central Park should still have a few inches left at the end of the system, and I don't expect to lose much at all here in Westchester with the frozen start to precipitation and the fact there's still 12-15" on the ground. This isn't a monster cutter, and the snowpack will remain intact especially with a quick return to cold following the storm. I wouldn't be surprised if we drop into the teens Wednesday night and start seeing single digits by Friday. I expect 40-42 is the warmest anyone gets and that would be eastern LI and maybe coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 PHL, ABE, TTN, EWR are all close or within the 1" isohyet on the 0z GFS. Starts as snow, then changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Based on what the NAM is showing, I don't see NW NJ getting above freezing until the precip ends. Look like a nice ice storm for NW NJ. The GFS has been looking even worse than this. I have seen situations like this here too many times where it is supposed to get above freezing but somehow it never does until the precip ends. It usually sits around 31 degrees until it is over. Don't worry...Blairstown looks to get above freezing on every other model at all layers. You may have a bit of icing at the start but then it just turns over to a cold rain. Unfortunately it will melt a lot of the snowpack, but at least there won't be any dangerous icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 PHL, ABE, TTN, EWR are all close or within the 1" isohyet on the 0z GFS. Starts as snow, then changes over. A lot more people go to plain rain on this run. Also looks like the precip gradient is setting up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 PHL, ABE, TTN, EWR are all close or within the 1" isohyet on the 0z GFS. Starts as snow, then changes over. I 95 from Philly through NYC up to 4 inches on the 0Z GFS - with temps in the 20's will stick immediately - so Uptons forecast of little or no accumulation might have to be revised http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Big lag between the warm and cold air. It takes over a day to get back below freezing for the big cities and I-95. We'll probably see widespread 40s on Wednesday after the storm passes, maybe even near 50F readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I 95 from Philly through NYC up to 4 inches on the 0Z GFS - with temps in the 20's will stick immediately - so Uptons forecast of little or no accumulation might have to be revised http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow060.gif thats a snow depth map...before the snow comes in they have already 2-3 on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Big lag between the warm and cold air. It takes over a day to get back below freezing for the big cities and I-95. We'll probably see widespread 40s on Wednesday after the storm passes, maybe even near 50F readings. 40 - 45 seems reasonable but 50 ? with the snow cover ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This is quickly becoming the egg laying storm of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 A lot more people go to plain rain on this run. Also looks like the precip gradient is setting up again. From 48 thru 60 hrs temperatures at the surface are below freezing... Its not until between 60 & 66 hrs that the surface temps raise above freezing verbatim...slightly warmer at 66 compared to 72 on the 18 Z. (and if you are in a valley such as Lehigh) probably be slightly longer as is the norm! By 60 hrs the 850s are above freezing ..so a good part of that from 54-60 is probably ICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Big lag between the warm and cold air. It takes over a day to get back below freezing for the big cities and I-95. We'll probably see widespread 40s on Wednesday after the storm passes, maybe even near 50F readings. Yea...this is going to put a huge dent in the snowpack if not destroy it. Good thing we have a blizzard coming towards the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 More than likely you do not know what goes on behind the scenes. There are however briefings ongoing regarding the upcoming winter precipitation event. A short slideshow version of this can be found at this link: http://www.erh.noaa....kages/index.php As for the 2007 sleet/ice storm, the forecasts were not that bad given the amount of sleet that fell. There were other issues at hand which involved miscommunications between PennDOT and the PA State Police. There was a rather involved investigation that followed that storm with many recommendations that were made, and then changes that were implemented. Thanks for the update Mike. I have been out of loop since retiring from the Municipal realm of things. Again, I am not faulting your office. We all learned something about Valentines 2007. I hope it is not repeated thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 thats a snow depth map...before the snow comes in they have already 2-3 on the ground Well its wrong anyways - it shows central northern NJ with only a few inches on the ground on sunday and in reality there is over 6 and close to 12 in some areas http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow006.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yea...this is going to put a huge dent in the snowpack if not destroy it. Good thing we have a blizzard coming towards the end of the week. For SNE perhaps...it could be an eerily similar playout to this past event, though there will be less issues from a primary this go around so perhaps the coastal low would get its act together but I'd feel very good right now about the end of next week if I was in Boston and have a warm fuzzy feeling even here in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For SNE perhaps...it could be an eerily similar playout to this past event, though there will be less issues from a primary this go around so perhaps the coastal low would get its act together but I'd feel very good right now about the end of next week if I was in Boston and have a warm fuzzy feeling even here in NYC. I remember you and I had this discussion about Miller A's/B's-- do you feel as I do that Miller A's are generally better for NYC, NJ and western LI (Nassau County) while Miller B's are better for Suffolk County and north into CT as well as the Hudson Valley? NYC/Western LI and NJ can do moderately well for a few inches in Miller B's and really well if the neg NAO suppresses the pattern enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 More than likely you do not know what goes on behind the scenes. There are however briefings ongoing regarding the upcoming winter precipitation event. A short slideshow version of this can be found at this link: http://www.erh.noaa....kages/index.php As for the 2007 sleet/ice storm, the forecasts were not that bad given the amount of sleet that fell. There were other issues at hand which involved miscommunications between PennDOT and the PA State Police. There was a rather involved investigation that followed that storm with many recommendations that were made, and then changes that were implemented. Mike, I went over the briefing, excellent job. Was this around in 2007? I was unaware of this and when did it go into effect? I would not have been so critical about this storm. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yea...this is going to put a huge dent in the snowpack if not destroy it. Good thing we have a blizzard coming towards the end of the week. It looks like we could get a moderate Miller B event after the rain/ice event. With the PNA really setting up, the pattern will be fairly amplified and any one of these shortwaves can dig and blow up into a big storm. Yet with the lack of a -NAO, the shortwaves don't dig far enough south or they could stay too close to the coast. However given the extent of the cold air, the former is more likely than the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I remember you and I had this discussion about Miller A/Bs-- do you feel as I do that Miller A's are generally better for NYC, NJ and western LI (Nassau County) while Miller Bs are better for Suffolk County and north into CT as well as the Hudson Valley? NYC/Western LI and NJ can do moderately well for a few inches in Miller B's and really well if the neg NAO suppresses the pattern enough. Miller Bs are usually good for NYC/LI...this past one was not great for NYC/western LI while some others can be great for all parts of the area...if the surface low forms south of say Dover DE usually NYC and western LI will do as well as eastern parts of the area...if it forms north of there not so much....Miller As are still the safest bet though for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I remember you and I had this discussion about Miller A's/B's-- do you feel as I do that Miller A's are generally better for NYC, NJ and western LI (Nassau County) while Miller B's are better for Suffolk County and north into CT as well as the Hudson Valley? NYC/Western LI and NJ can do moderately well for a few inches in Miller B's and really well if the neg NAO suppresses the pattern enough. Miller A's are easier to predict, because they already exist, and they are likely to be a more sure "hit". However, Miller B's usually have a higher chance of being all snow. NYC area can cash in from both scenarios. From PHL South, I would MUCH rather have a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just hoping for a decent winter storm here on tuesday/wednesday. Still looks like a decent shot of snow then sleet/frz rain, did get a little warmer but those fluctuations are to be expected. Still looking like a very disruptive day here on Tuesday with a lot of school cancellations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Miller A's are easier to predict, because they already exist, and they are likely to be a more sure "hit". However, Miller B's usually have a higher chance of being all snow. NYC area can cash in from both scenarios. From PHL South, I would MUCH rather have a Miller A. The bust potential on Miller Bs is massive....not so much for NYC but the corridor from TTN-BWI-DCA its very high as we have seen with the 12/30/00 event and the Boxing Day one this year....many of the NYC forecast busts pre 1990s occurred with Miller B events....even during the 60s-80s most of the Miller As were well forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yea...this is going to put a huge dent in the snowpack if not destroy it. Good thing we have a blizzard coming towards the end of the week. What are you talking about? I don't know about you, but I have 12-15" of snow still on the ground in Southern Westchester, including a crusty glacier from the Boxing Day Blizzard. There's no way we're going to lose all of that, or even most of it, with the Tuesday storm. Bitterly cold temperatures tomorrow night around 10F are going to freeze the snowpack solid....we rate to get 1-3" of snow, at least, from the SW flow event, topped by a glaze of icing that will seal the snowpack. The GFS only shows .5" rain on Tuesday/Wednesday morning, and that falls with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s, as we have a cold antecedent airmass with CAA on the backside of the clipper, and then a coastal forming which locks in E/NE winds that keep us fairly chilly. I am growing tired of the pessimistic comments which have no base in actual meteorology...this isn't going to be a snowpack killer especially for those of us in the suburbs. Miller Bs are usually good for NYC/LI...this past one was not great for NYC/western LI while some others can be great for all parts of the area...if the surface low forms south of say Dover DE usually NYC and western LI will do as well as eastern parts of the area...if it forms north of there not so much....Miller As are still the safest bet though for NYC. The last storm was pretty sweet here in Dobbs Ferry, 14.5" with insane snowfall rates. Even NYC had 9.1"; that's a big storm, although it doesn't seem as impressive given all the huge snowstorms we've had since March 2009. We've done great in Miller Bs recently...2/25 Snowicane last year was over 20", January 2005 was like 14", etc...Miller As are awesome to watch as they crawl up the coast although plenty of them have whiffed here including the 2/5 and 1/30 storms last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just hoping for a decent winter storm here on tuesday/wednesday. Still looks like a decent shot of snow then sleet/frz rain, did get a little warmer but those fluctuations are to be expected. Still looking like a very disruptive day here on Tuesday with a lot of school cancellations here. I am supposed to be subbing Tuesday at the local high school, and even down here at 350' elevation 10 miles north of NYC, I think we may have a nasty situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see delays in Southern Westchester and cancellations in Northern Westchester. Latest GFS shows around 2" of snow here lasting until around 7am, then potentially some ice, and a transition to rain in late morning. Perfect timing to cancel school... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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