Stephen Turner Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. thanks. if that guy is really that tired he should go to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 thanks. if that guy is really that tired he should go to bed... the point is, if you want imby questions do it in the banter thread, thats what its for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Only a govt agency can make this advisory to other govt agencies. I can tell both govt agencies until I am blue in the face of the possibilities but the Emergency Management Coordinators(EMC) from each county can only talk to PEMA and Penn Dot to make their respective recommendations. Mt. Holly office can do this by issuing an Ice Storm Warning for the affected counties and communicating their thoughts on the storm event when requested by the EMC. Thanks More than likely you do not know what goes on behind the scenes. There are however briefings ongoing regarding the upcoming winter precipitation event. A short slideshow version of this can be found at this link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/index.php As for the 2007 sleet/ice storm, the forecasts were not that bad given the amount of sleet that fell. There were other issues at hand which involved miscommunications between PennDOT and the PA State Police. There was a rather involved investigation that followed that storm with many recommendations that were made, and then changes that were implemented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Do you guys even realize that psu is a moderator here, and as such is authorized to reprimand the poster in question? And again, IN MY BACKYARD questions are not acceptable in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 OZ Nam will be the 1st run for this storm that is within the 60 hour window when the NAM is most accurate - It is also when the NAM recieves new data, so it should be very interesting to see what the 0Z NAM shows, to say the very least. Mt. Holly has a much cooler forecast than what they suggested this morning for their entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol. what does it take to be a meteorologist on here? tombo is the true expert. Dude, if you don't want to get sanctioned, don't repeatedly ask how qpf for your backyard. Quite honestly, I've never seen a post from you that didn't ask that. I'm not trying to be a tough guy, but rather am only trying to educate you so that we all get along. Like Tombo said, ask the question in the banter thread and a bunch of people will be happy to answer your question. Anyway, back to the analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NCEP is on it as it looks like more upper air data is being requested starting tomorrow... SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0145Z SUN JAN 16 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...3 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... YMO/71836 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 1017-1001 MB...TOO DRY. CAR/72712 - PURGED WINDS 725-624 MB...ERRATIC DATA. TKK/91334 - PURGED WINDS ABOVE 625 MB...TOO FAST. BRO/72250 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 583-491 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. TBW/72210 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 776-760 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. YZT/71109 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 558-526 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. HYY/76692 - DELETED ENTIRE OBSERVATION...IDENTICAL TO 15/12Z. TOP/72456 - TTAA/TTBB NOT IN FOR NAM. MZT/76458 - 10159. REMINDER...REQUEST FOR SPECIAL 18Z RELEASES ON 1/16 FROM SITES IN TX...LA...OK...AND AR TO IMPROVE MODEL INITIALIZATION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. SPECIFIC SITES INCLUDED ARE FWD, BRO, CRP, DRT, MAF, AMA, EPZ, LCH, SHV, LIX, LZK, OUN, AND LMN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 REMINDER...REQUEST FOR SPECIAL 18Z RELEASES ON 1/16 FROM SITES IN TX...LA...OK...AND AR TO IMPROVE MODEL INITIALIZATION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. SPECIFIC SITES INCLUDED ARE FWD, BRO, CRP, DRT, MAF, AMA, EPZ, LCH, SHV, LIX, LZK, OUN, AND LMN. Hi Mike, Do you think that because NCEP is requesting upper air data for the NAM, that they are potentially considering it's warmer solution to be inaccurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NCEP is on it as it looks like more upper air data is being requested starting tomorrow... SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0145Z SUN JAN 16 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...3 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... YMO/71836 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 1017-1001 MB...TOO DRY. CAR/72712 - PURGED WINDS 725-624 MB...ERRATIC DATA. TKK/91334 - PURGED WINDS ABOVE 625 MB...TOO FAST. BRO/72250 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 583-491 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. TBW/72210 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 776-760 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. YZT/71109 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 558-526 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. HYY/76692 - DELETED ENTIRE OBSERVATION...IDENTICAL TO 15/12Z. TOP/72456 - TTAA/TTBB NOT IN FOR NAM. MZT/76458 - 10159. REMINDER...REQUEST FOR SPECIAL 18Z RELEASES ON 1/16 FROM SITES IN TX...LA...OK...AND AR TO IMPROVE MODEL INITIALIZATION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. SPECIFIC SITES INCLUDED ARE FWD, BRO, CRP, DRT, MAF, AMA, EPZ, LCH, SHV, LIX, LZK, OUN, AND LMN. Nice to see you posting, Mike. Also thanks for the link to that briefing. Never saw those before. This ice threat is scaring me a bit for my commute to the Lehigh Valley on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NCEP is on it as it looks like more upper air data is being requested starting tomorrow... SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0145Z SUN JAN 16 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...3 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... YMO/71836 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 1017-1001 MB...TOO DRY. CAR/72712 - PURGED WINDS 725-624 MB...ERRATIC DATA. TKK/91334 - PURGED WINDS ABOVE 625 MB...TOO FAST. BRO/72250 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 583-491 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. TBW/72210 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 776-760 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. YZT/71109 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 558-526 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. HYY/76692 - DELETED ENTIRE OBSERVATION...IDENTICAL TO 15/12Z. TOP/72456 - TTAA/TTBB NOT IN FOR NAM. MZT/76458 - 10159. REMINDER...REQUEST FOR SPECIAL 18Z RELEASES ON 1/16 FROM SITES IN TX...LA...OK...AND AR TO IMPROVE MODEL INITIALIZATION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. SPECIFIC SITES INCLUDED ARE FWD, BRO, CRP, DRT, MAF, AMA, EPZ, LCH, SHV, LIX, LZK, OUN, AND LMN. How many sounding boxes are on hand at any one time for an upper-air station? I remember the one at OKX was ridden with yellow jackets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice to see you posting, Mike. Also thanks for the link to that briefing. Never saw those before. This ice threat is scaring me a bit for my commute to the Lehigh Valley on Tuesday... Good question, I'm thinking the same. Could be the GFS run showing the southern stream short wave being stronger and going on it's own with a coastal near the 40/70 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. A new guy with 4 posts attacking a met/mod is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 21z SREF p-type probs for Tuesday morning. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The NAM looks a little slower this run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 through 57, 850's retreating from central ny to just North east of NYC.. surface has sig cad profile.. jersey all sub 32 down to central va..NC /va beach mod-heavy precip EDIT.. looking at 2m surface maps, AC south is 32+...15miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 @ 60, 850's still retreating north... dc-philly has light precip(presumably zr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 63, heavy precip down by NC/OBX/// no SLP sig though... 32 line is straddling the big cities dc-NYC..if anything, philly looks to be above 32... light to mod precip dc-NYC.. 850's continue their retreat above NY and all of NH and VT are above freezin @ 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 66, all the big cities DC-NYC go above freezing at the surface barely... pretty good ice event north and west from lehigh valley to poconos to alabany with light precip... Dc-philly mod-heavy rain, NYC mod rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hi Mike, Do you think that because NCEP is requesting upper air data for the NAM, that they are potentially considering it's warmer solution to be inaccurate? Not really sure if that is their reason for the extra upper air soundings, but probably mainly trying to capture the short wave energy a bit better to see if the models can resolve them a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 69, 1012mb low off by VA beach.. heavy preicp down there,.. still mod rains into the aforementioned cities.. 850's starting to crash back into central NY. nice little freezing wedge showing up on the interior of PA and south central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr72, still a 1012mb low off the VA coast... broad in nature... still precip into the cities.. 850 and 2m freezing line flucatuating over the interior through 72, delmarva getting 1" qpf, dc-nyc .5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 66, all the big cities DC-NYC go above freezing at the surface barely... pretty good ice event north and west from lehigh valley to poconos to alabany with light precip... Dc-philly mod-heavy rain, NYC mod rain doesn't look like the big cities NYC and PHILLY included have to worry about frozen according to the NAM -- BUT its hard to believe the cold air that is coming in is just going to retreat at all levels so quickly especially with this thick snow cover -- stay tuned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 75, low moving away NE/ENE @ 1010mb... still light-mod precip back towards the cities..cold pocket at the surface over interior PA.. most of mass and NY above freezing at both levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Temps are close but honestly in the interior there's hardly enough precip to matter on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 doesn't look like the big cities NYC and PHILLY included have to worry about frozen according to the NAM -- BUT its hard to believe the cold air that is coming in is just going to retreat at all levels so quickly especially with this thick snow cover -- stay tuned.... between hours 60 and 69 , philly-dc would have some p-type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM is only about 24 hrs behind in its solution showing... 72 hr NAM Last nights 00z GFS at 96 hrs We seen this solution basically last night already ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Cold air can get scoured out easily changing things over quick. Seen it in the past. However with the cold air we've had in place and will have in place up until this storm, everything is frozen solid. Raising skin temps above freezing will probably take longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 between hours 60 and 69 , philly-dc would have some p-type issues its an odd situation - since the precip makes it up to the dc philly first at night they might have issues with precip type - BUT the precip is struggling to reach NYC and there is going to be an extended period of virga to deal with in this situation because of the dry air mass being introduced tomorrow into monday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Based on what the NAM is showing, I don't see NW NJ getting above freezing until the precip ends. Look like a nice ice storm for NW NJ. The GFS has been looking even worse than this. I have seen situations like this here too many times where it is supposed to get above freezing but somehow it never does until the precip ends. It usually sits around 31 degrees until it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 its an odd situation - since the precip makes it up to the dc philly first at night they might have issues with precip type - BUT the precip is struggling to reach NYC and there is going to be an extended period of virga to deal with in this situation because of the dry air mass being introduced tomorrow into monday night.... The NAM is too slow, we'll see it probably come out faster with this in the next day and of course faster in this storm means more frozen...this is as I posted earlier looking more like a 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow early and the ZR inland RA at the coast, the system approaches more from an angle of due south as opposed to SW which in part causes it to arrive later and the high to get more out of position than models were showing 2-3 days ago....the NAM on this run took a step towards a less amped solution and more to the GFS track offshore....for those who want to hold on to their snowpack at this point you honestly want this thing to mainly be a miss as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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