ag3 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 im not sure if the 18z gfs is right, but its a huge ice storm just outside the cities through hr 72 Surface is below freezing for NYC also for a while. Icing potential even into cities on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Snow is not the issue here, it's the potential for some icing. We could see some major problems with the 1"+ QPF and surface temperatures near freezing outside of the cities. Cold air may be very stubborn to leave sometimes and you end up with a lot of ice issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what is the 18Z showing for the Jersey Shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what is the 18Z showing for the Jersey Shore? rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 what is the 18Z showing for the Jersey Shore? Your IMBY posts are growing tiring. Either start trying to learn something or go to weather.gov for your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what is the 18Z showing for the Jersey Shore? slight chance of fist pumping and a side of SNOOKIE! It warm's pretty fast. Easterly influence, not the shore's storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18 GFS is coming in colder with the 850 temps.. 0 line just north of NYC at 72... Looks like NW burbs would definitely see wet snow if this run were to materialize. See my forecast post from earlier, CTP is leaning that way. Part of their AFD concerning next weeks event. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO GO MORE WITH SNOW AND SOME SLEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERN SYSTEM MAY WARM IT UP SOME...LOW LEVELS ARE COLD. WHILE A WARM WEDGE IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW EARLY...THEN SOME SLEET. QPF AMTS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT...GIVEN COASTAL STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs ens mean takes the low further west. Tracks it over the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Off topic with this storm but it's flurrying here alittle bit...looks like heavier snow in south nj and out on long island. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs ens mean takes the low further west. Tracks it over the cities Its so hard to go against the NAM this year the way its been performing, it may be too far west or juiced up but I have a feeling on the 18/19 event that the GFS is too progressive as of now as is the GEM....this is a wild winter, I could easily see 1 inch of rain or from this event...it seems every system is going to drop insane QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 State College went colder with their new forecasts. All snow and sleet now with no mention of freezing rain, let alone plain rain. For Tamaqua: M.L.King Day: A chance of snow after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Mt. Holly and Upton both went colder, also. Tuesday highs where I live (Metuchen, northern Middlesex in Philly CWA) and work (Rahway, 9 miles NNE of Metuchen in southern Union County in NYC CWA) went from 43-44F to 37-38F, with what looks to be a slower changeover to rain. Can always hope the trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I wonder what surface temps would be on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS means have been further to the west this whole time ..this is nothing new with this system.. 12 Z 84 18 Z 72 12 Z 72 18 Z 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I wonder what surface temps would be on the GEFS. im not sure bout surface but the 925mb and 850 temps are warm, you have to go out towards unv to get below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Latest Wxsim module forecasts based of 18z runs paints a somewhat snowier picture by the Tuesday AM rush for the NW Philly burbs. It also shows a significant ice storm Tuesday morning thru midday. However it does now show a slow rise to above freezing and almost 1/2 inch of rain after temps are above freezing. Here are the current forecast timings Light Snow by 9pm monday evening - temp 23.9 Heavy Snow by 3am temp 26.0 Heavy mix of Snow/IP at 6am with almost 6" of snow and sleet having accumulated by the morning rush hour (total qpf 0.57") Heavy ZR from 7am thru midday with (0.65" qpf falling) Finally temps rise slightly above freezing by midday with another 0.46" falling during the PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Snow is not the issue here, it's the potential for some icing. We could see some major problems with the 1"+ QPF and surface temperatures near freezing outside of the cities. Cold air may be very stubborn to leave sometimes and you end up with a lot of ice issues. I agree nothing is worse than 1/2 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and unrealistic snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Hazelton. Its funny that posters will talk about 12-18" snow as crippling for NYC and Philly but forget what a .50" ice storm will do to a city. With ABE, Reading and surrounding cities having a total population of almost a million people, the potential of crippling ice storm exists. Look at I-78 four years ago on what crippling is. There should be much more discussion on this threat in this thread or on the board. Even the HPC has highlighted this potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I agree nothing is worse than 1/2 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and unrealistic snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Hazelton. Its funny that posters will talk about 12-18" snow as crippling for NYC and Philly but forget what a .50" ice storm will do to a city. With ABE, Reading and surrounding cities having a total population of almost a million people, the potential of crippling ice storm exists. Look at I-78 four years ago on what crippling is. There should be much more discussion on this threat in this thread or on the board. Even the HPC has highlighted this potential threat. There was sleet in the forecast for that storm. The problem was the sleet persisted longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I agree nothing is worse than 1/2 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and unrealistic snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Hazelton. Its funny that posters will talk about 12-18" snow as crippling for NYC and Philly but forget what a .50" ice storm will do to a city. With ABE, Reading and surrounding cities having a total population of almost a million people, the potential of crippling ice storm exists. Look at I-78 four years ago on what crippling is. There should be much more discussion on this threat in this thread or on the board. Even the HPC has highlighted this potential threat. Grothar...that's what I am fearing hear in Northeastern Berks...I remember 2007 well...it was like shoveling sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 There was sleet in the forecast for that storm. The problem was the sleet persisted longer. You are correct Mike, it did persist. I am not faulting the Mt. Holly office- there was no way they could have known that it was going to be 19 degrees and sleeting. My point is that we cannot let our guard down and let I-78 freeze up again or the power stay out in the valley. I hope the Mt Holly office has told PEMA and PADOT of the possibility of a real ice problem for this area. What are the chances of an Ice Storm Warning being issued for tomorrow night for the LV, Berks county and Carbon County etc? . 75 inch of ice can really do a number on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 What a mess this is going to be across the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys. I don't envy Mt. Holly's position here. This is the SREF-derived p-type probability for 6z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You are correct Mike, it did persist. I am not faulting the Mt. Holly office- there was no way they could have known that it was going to be 19 degrees and sleeting. My point is that we cannot let our guard down and let I-78 freeze up again or the power stay out in the valley. I hope the Mt Holly office has told PEMA and PADOT of the possibility of a real ice problem for this area. What are the chances of an Ice Storm Warning being issued for tomorrow night for the LV, Berks county and Carbon County etc? . 75 inch of ice can really do a number on us. Maybe it'd be best if you get on the horn with PETA & PENNDOT, I'm afraid Mt Holly has never had any experience dealing with Frz Rain & Sleet within the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 gfs ens mean takes the low further west. Tracks it over the cities Doesn't surprise me...the 18z GFS historically has an east bias. Take the position of the surface low on the 18z GFS and shift it 50-75 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe it'd be best if you get on the horn with PETA & PENNDOT, I'm afraid Mt Holly has never had any experience dealing with Frz Rain & Sleet within the forecast area. Only a govt agency can make this advisory to other govt agencies. I can tell both govt agencies until I am blue in the face of the possibilities but the Emergency Management Coordinators(EMC) from each county can only talk to PEMA and Penn Dot to make their respective recommendations. Mt. Holly office can do this by issuing an Ice Storm Warning for the affected counties and communicating their thoughts on the storm event when requested by the EMC. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Doesn't surprise me...the 18z GFS historically has an east bias. Take the position of the surface low on the 18z GFS and shift it 50-75 miles further west. I do not believe there is any truth to this whatsoever.... The NAM has been the outlier with this system from the get go..... NAM is not going to be correct every storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. Your IMBY posts are growing tiring. Either start trying to learn something or go to weather.gov for your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. Telling a moderator to relax and calling him a tough guy is not a good way to make an impression. Also, you don't really know the board dynamics, do you? IMBY questions are generally frowned upon as there is usually pretty good analysis, and if one just reads, they can get an idea of what's going to happen where they live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. Haha cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. Are you for real? The only post that guy has made since he joined the board is "how much for Monmouth County" or "how much for the Jersey Shore." Nobody likes constant IMBY posts. But thanks for being condescending. It really makes you look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I do not believe there is any truth to this whatsoever.... The NAM has been the outlier with this system from the get go..... NAM is not going to be correct every storm.... OZ Nam will be the 1st run for this storm that is within the 60 hour window when the NAM is most accurate - should be interesting to say the least -- one or 2 degrees in certain locations will be critical.....plus IMO things could still change either way right up to within 12 - 24 hours of the event - all depends on who is winning the battle - the dry cold air mass coming in the next 24 hours or the WAA from the south ahead of the storm(s).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax tough guy - it's a weather forum - maybe he/she is trying to LEARN by asking questions. Keep scrolling if it's too tiring for you. Psu is a meteorologist. He knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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