tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 192 has 2m temps below zero from the cities west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for the cities, with snow for the interior For the 1/18-1/19 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Should we have the below thread closed since everyone is talking in this one instead for the threat past the 18-19? http://www.americanw...-thread-part-2/ I think we need to take the discussion there. This thread is titled 18-19th and people are discussing storms for next weekend at the same time. It's getting confusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For the 1/18-1/19 system? no the late next week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For the 1/18-1/19 system? Hes's talking about the 1/21 - 1/23 which could mix as well with a +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 FWIW, DT thinks that from NYC northward, half of the precip will be frozen. http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/2011/01/the-winter-that-does-not-want-to-quit/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nobody caught the 06z DGEX? Has a snowstorm around 114 hours..and then 10 degree high temps. Here's the storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f114.gif And the high temperatures a few days later http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Now I'm thinking we might see back to back rain events given what the Euro showed. It's just really bad timing with the storm coming in during our transition phase. We'll see what happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 138 has the frz line along i 95 with the 850 line from york to edison nj hr 144 frz line on 95 and 850 line about 30 miles west That doesn't sound bad. What are we looking at in terms of precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Now I'm thinking we might see back to back rain events given what the Euro showed. It's just really bad timing with the storm coming in during our transition phase. We'll see what happens though. Are you serious?This storm is 1 week away. We all know how the Euro has been so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That doesn't sound bad. What are we looking at in terms of precip amounts? your majority ice.... inch for phl .75-1 for you and the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Are you serious?This storm is 1 week away. We all know how the Euro has been so far this winter. Your right I'm pushing it a little here, but def for the 1st storm, it looks more rainy than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yea... I'm not quite understanding why the 32 line on the surface temps is so far north with this set-up.. With a coastal well east of the area, I would expect a surface wind off the land and would not expect a freezing rain/sleet situation that it depicting in the CCB part of the storm. I would think temps of 32-35 with wet snow for most n&w burbs I agree, its amazing how the entire overrunning type storm has gone out the window the last 2 GFS and NAM runs and this event now reeks of an elevation type snowstorm...this is an event where the Poconos, Catskills, and NW NJ could get hit hard....to me this is a rain or snow deal now if this morning's NAM/GFS runs are right...we've gone over to just a coastal low in a bad setup for the coast......the Euro came around closer to what I thought it might when I was talking last night on the 2nd storm about it being further west or inland...there is not real -NAO set up yet and even on last night's run you could see the 500 trough trying to go negative over the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I agree, its amazing how the entire overrunning type storm has gone out the window the last 2 GFS and NAM runs and this event now reeks of an elevation type snowstorm...this is an event where the Poconos, Catskills, and NW NJ could get hit hard....to me this is a rain or snow deal now if this morning's NAM/GFS runs are right...we've gone over to just a coastal low in a bad setup for the coast......the Euro came around closer to what I thought it might when I was talking last night on the 2nd storm about it being further west or inland. I am hoping you're right. ZR would be devastating to deal with, plus the cold coming behind it would make it hard to remove and break up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am hoping you're right. ZR would be devastating to deal with, plus the cold coming behind it would make it hard to remove and break up. I didnt look at anything other than surface temps and 850 temps but seeing +1 at 850 and 28 early on at Morristown indicates that any sort of heavy precip rates or higher terrain and you can hold that 0C isothermal layer through the entire sounding and get a very heavy wet snow in places like High Point or Stroudsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I didnt look at anything other than surface temps and 850 temps but seeing +1 at 850 and 28 early on at Morristown indicates that any sort of heavy precip rates or higher terrain and you can hold that 0C isothermal layer through the entire sounding and get a very heavy wet snow in places like High Point or Stroudsburg. I know, tough to nail down at this point, but at what elevation does the ice threat turn more to a heavy wet snow? I'm at 825' here, and I'm not a big fan of ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If you look at the 18z nam...I have a hard time understanding why the 0 C 850 line gets so far north. I don't know much about meteorology, but I understand the basic concepts of why further west lows (.ie apps runners) allow warmer air to flood in . This now looks like it is going to be a coastal coming from the south...and the low stays east .....so I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 All I know is if the coastal stays offshore, then it will likely draw colder air from the NE despite the low to the west create warming conditions. They'll be in a little battle which is why there is a high ice threat for areas N and W of the cities and especially the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If you look at the 18z nam...I have a hard time understanding why the 0 C 850 line gets so far north. I don't know much about meteorology, but I understand the basic concepts of why further west lows (.ie apps runners) allow warmer air to flood in . This now looks like it is going to be a coastal coming from the south...and the low stays east .....so I don't get it. there is southerly flow in the mid levels above the surface system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 there is southerly flow in the mid levels above the surface system Thank you for posting this! There is a coastal system, but the mid levels are getting flooded with warmer air. Also, the high thats shifting offshore in combination with the low will provide a stiff east, southeast flow that will try to warm the surface up regardless of the snowpack for coastal areas. It may be harder for inland locations so ice could be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 State College went colder with their new forecasts. All snow and sleet now with no mention of freezing rain, let alone plain rain. For Tamaqua: M.L.King Day: A chance of snow after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 State College went colder with their new forecasts. All snow and sleet. No mention of freezing rain let alone plain rain. For Tamaqua: M.L.King Day: A chance of snow after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. My forecast is the same thing. What made them change it so much from this morning? They are normally conservative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 READING, PA M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain between 9am and 2pm, then rain after 2pm. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If you look at the 18z nam...I have a hard time understanding why the 0 C 850 line gets so far north. I don't know much about meteorology, but I understand the basic concepts of why further west lows (.ie apps runners) allow warmer air to flood in . This now looks like it is going to be a coastal coming from the south...and the low stays east .....so I don't get it. Mid level warm air advection is well underway before the coastal formation..hence the H85 line being so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'd rather have rain over ice any day...I'm just worried about flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 that's basically the Lehigh Valley in the ice accum. area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 im not sure if the 18z gfs is right, but its a huge ice storm just outside the cities through hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18 GFS is coming in colder with the 850 temps.. 0 line just north of NYC at 72... Looks like NW burbs would definitely see wet snow if this run were to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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