MD Snow Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 no, not even close as to what the GFS was showing.. weird because both the GFS and the NAM were showing something getting going down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 with all of the cold air in place, it could be a very icy/messy storm for those just NW of I-95...especially with the low potentially tracking right along the coast and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro just keeps the precip a strung out mess.. there is a low, but way offshore and not a good surface reflection... 120 looks interesting out west and in the plains.. nice +PNA building, precip into TX, OK.. although, im sure thats for a diff thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 big storm incoming at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 big storm incoming at 132 +PNA, 50-50, some semblance of a west NAO... sharp trough... gulf tapped, MJO phase 7 forecasted.. almost too good to be true .. lets see what later frames do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for the cities, with snow for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for the cities, with snow for the interior Which event, Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it goes snow to ice to maybe rain then ice to snow.... interior is fine....trof went negative to quickly so you get a low track from nc to about 75 miles east of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for the cities, with snow for the interior a bit too fast on this run. trough goes negative 1 frame late... Awesome potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Which event, Tom? the one late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it goes snow to ice to maybe rain then ice to snow.... interior is fine....trof went negative to quickly so you get a low track from nc to about 75 miles east of acy Not bad at this range Tom, interesting how different the Euro and GFS are about this threat and its timing (aka right after the first storm on the GFS to 150 on the Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doubt its rain..504 thicknesses over OH and 2M temps are very cold. It's very close to being a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for the cities, with snow for the interior Finally a little love for those of us who have been to far west this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doubt its rain..504 thicknesses over OH and 2M temps are very cold. It's very close to being a big snowstorm yea i wasnt, sure because hr 138 had frz line over the cities, than hr 144 had the same so it may sneak north between that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doubt its rain..504 thicknesses over OH and 2M temps are very cold. It's very close to being a big snowstorm Western ridge is a bit far west, and there's still some warm air and ridging in the SE . Of course most other models have everything too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it goes snow to ice to maybe rain then ice to snow.... interior is fine....trof went negative to quickly so you get a low track from nc to about 75 miles east of acy Tom, where does the ice/snow line set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How much qpf on the 138 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doubt its rain..504 thicknesses over OH and 2M temps are very cold. It's very close to being a big snowstorm Hope its for the interior regions and not along the coast this time. Getting slightly ridiculous now, if we were to miss another opportunity like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 But how serious is this ice storm threat? .25 to .50 is not to bad anything over .75 is serious. I agree nothing is worse than 1 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Scranton. Thanks I would say .25-.5 of ice is serious, .75 would be near-crippling for us here in LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the euro has been overdone with storms at this range... remember all the boxing day runs showing 1-2' for dc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 With this 18-29th frame becoming a 50-50 and helping re-establish the -NAO 9somewhat east based on this run), and a MJO wave forecasted to be in an amplified Phase 7, and a +PNA ridge AND a PV dropping in, this time frame has HUGE potential written all over it. Maybe a thread for this threat/time period John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For next weekend's storm, we need the energy come out of the SW slower, so we can give more the time for the -NAO block to mature. Otherwise, it might become a wintry mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 With this 18-29th frame becoming a 50-50 and helping re-establish the -NAO 9somewhat east based on this run), and a MJO wave forecasted to be in an amplified Phase 7, and a +PNA ridge AND a PV dropping in, this time frame has HUGE potential written all over it. Maybe a thread for this threat/time period John? That is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 A slew of solutions for the 1/21 - 1/23 storm. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Should we have the below thread closed since everyone is talking in this one instead for the threat past the 18-19? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2753-the-phlnyc-medium-range-thread-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 With this 18-29th frame becoming a 50-50 and helping re-establish the -NAO 9somewhat east based on this run), and a MJO wave forecasted to be in an amplified Phase 7, and a +PNA ridge AND a PV dropping in, this time frame has HUGE potential written all over it. Maybe a thread for this threat/time period John? Yeah, you can go ahead and start it if you'd like. For the record, I think it has potential, but I wouldn't call it huge. The blocking is east based and doesn't really stretch very far west towards Greenland. If you believe the ECMWF ensemble means after 6 days..the blocking actually semi-breaks down again. The saving grace is the big +PNA ridge..which is supported by the MJO. But the problem is that without the blocking to help force the amplification of energy underneath, it becomes a cold and dry pattern with a big ridge out west and a big trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the euro has been overdone with storms at this range... remember all the boxing day runs showing 1-2' for dc? Didn't you get 1-2' of snow so how was the Euro over done with that storm? Location, yes. Overdone, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Tom, where does the ice/snow line set up. hr 138 has the frz line along i 95 with the 850 line from york to edison nj hr 144 frz line on 95 and 850 line about 30 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For next weekend's storm, we need the energy come out of the SW slower, so we can give more the time for the -NAO block to mature. Otherwise, it might become a wintry mess. we need it to be slightly flatter than the euro's solution. our best hope is a moderate event along the wave that rides the front the pattern in no way supports a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 we need it to be slightly flatter than the euro's solution. our best hope is a moderate event along the wave that rides the front the pattern in no way supports a big storm Yeah, pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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