ptb127 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is west of the op run. It is a coastal hugger. Is there a potential for a major ice storm in my area?? It seems as if some mets are starting to pick up on it. Ice is nasty in many regards especially considering power outages and downed trees. It would be even more worrisome as it's going to get really cold behind the storm meaning the ice wouldn't be able to thaw enough before it froze. What are the chances(remember I do not like on the coast and I live about 125 miles to the NW of I-95) that it's snow instead of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am pretty much in agreement with you. If the 500mb ends up as depicted by current modeling, it would defy laws for this primary to cut. The difference maker in my opinion is however that the primary could still achieve enough northward advancement to allow enough WAA and rising hghts ahead of it that it becomes to warm for the secondary. If you look at the GFS it has this large strung out primary that has moisture stretching a great distance from S to N, simply because it doesn't know where to send the energy. It will more likely be one consolidated LP, and if it is able to slide S and E under the confluence then it brings in colder air as it hooks up with the LP in the SE US. Problem right now is they remain two seperate distinct LPs. yep... agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GGEM has a coastal storm but the 850 line is near Buffalo. A lot of rain for all of the east. The GFS blasted the 850 line way north as well but kept the surface quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Nogaps also has 2 lows. The first low is a coastal hugger and the 2nd low is OTS. http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Is there a potential for a major ice storm in my area?? It seems as if some mets are starting to pick up on it. Ice is nasty in many regards especially considering power outages and downed trees. It would be even more worrisome as it's going to get really cold behind the storm meaning the ice wouldn't be able to thaw enough before it froze. What are the chances(remember I do not like on the coast and I live about 125 miles to the NW of I-95) that it's snow instead of ice? In my opinion.. the chances of a widespread freezing rain issue decreases as the chances for a consolidated coastal increases. With freezing rain, you basically want a large scale southwesterly flow over-riding a very shallow cold layer right near the surface, however, with a coastal in the area, it is going to have a tendency to draw in more of a northerly wind component as a low pressure between the surface and 850 mb develops.. so, if anything, I think the chances of sleet would be higher as the warm layer in the atmosphere decreases enough to where the precip can refreeze before getting to the surface. If we are talking about more of a warm frontal passage just to your south trying to progress northward, I would definitely say that freezing rain is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Well there's def going to be a lot of low level cold air around so this isn't just a plain cold rain event. If the low level cold air gets even stronger, than a widespread sleet or freezing rain event is likely. If more emphasis is placed on the coastal and the low out west is much weaker, than maybe we'll get snow out of it. Still, the coastal has to be offshore, it can't hug the coast or we're still screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 In my opinion.. the chances of a widespread freezing rain issue decreases as the chances for a consolidated coastal increases. With freezing rain, you basically want a large scale southwesterly flow over-riding a very shallow cold layer right near the surface, however, with a coastal in the area, it is going to have a tendency to draw in more of a northerly wind component as a low pressure between the surface and 850 mb develops.. so, if anything, I think the chances of sleet would be higher as the warm layer in the atmosphere decreases enough to where the precip can refreeze before getting to the surface. If we are talking about more of a warm frontal passage just to your south trying to progress northward, I would definitely say that freezing rain is more likely. But how serious is this ice storm threat? .25 to .50 is not to bad anything over .75 is serious. I agree nothing is worse than 1 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Scranton. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc Mid 30's throughout the storm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 But how serious is this ice storm threat? .25 to .50 is not to bad anything over .75 is serious. I agree nothing is worse than 1 inch of ice and a cold front blowing through with no power.. Everyone has forgotten about the sleet storm of 2007 in the same general area that is being discussed - a storm that was not forecasted to be sleet . Somebody better wake up and the smell the roses. Instead of discussing the chances of coastals and snow, lets discuss the chances of a serious ice storm from ABE to Hazelton. Frankly, I am tired of hearing about the chances of lows developing along the coast and snow chances in NYC when the real threat is an ice storm in the LV to Scranton. Thanks I'd say the chance for .25 - .50 of sleet is fairly decent... but not a blockbuster ice storm. I'd be concerned if I saw a 1040 mb high sitting just north of us and all of this precip headed our way on the heels of a slow warm frontal passage, with light due, northerly winds at the surface and a screaming south wind from 925 mb and up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am just worried that a 'tunnel' forms between the HP over C/NW Canada and the HP sliding east OTS off the coast, and the primary tracks through this area of "weakness". Problem with that is if a secondary does indeed develop this would favor a warmer/closer to the coast solution. I am really just hoping we avoid appreciable precipitation and wait till the cold comes back and legitimate snow chances arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=knyc Mid 30's throughout the storm for NYC. And look how close KPTW is to freezing throughout: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kptw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro out to 6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 NWS NYC forecast: Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday: Snow likely before 9am, then snow and freezing rain likely between 9am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. NWS EWR forecast: Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday: Snow likely before 9am, then snow and freezing rain likely between 9am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Talk about cutting it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 CTP Tamaqua forecast. County text version: MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST. .MONDAY NIGHT...A WINTRY MIX LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. Point & click version: M.L.King Day: A slight chance of snow after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 by 60, southern trough is negative, northern stream not digging too much. Low over lake michigan(light precip associated with it). 1024 centered NE of the B/M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 by 66, surface freezing line running parrallel with I-95 (Balt to NYC, then south of Boson) precip blob over the SE coast.. by 72,philly is "torched" both surface and 850, nyc on the fritz.. .1-.25 precip philly to nYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 not much precip from the coastal but warmer highs in low to mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Current Wxsim forecast timing breakdown for the upcoming wintery event for the NW Philadelphia suburbs Light Snow arriving by midnight with a temp at 22.8 IP/SN mix continuing at 6am temp 25.4 IP/ZR mix at 9am temp 28.0 (0.29" qpf thru this point) ZR continues for most of the rest of the storm with one hour between 3 and 4 tuesday where temps get to 32.5...they then begin to slip back with ZR continuing (0.66") of ZR falls Total precip (most frozen is 0.96") here in Chester County PA NWS point forecast Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday: Snow before noon, then rain. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 12z GFS depiction portrays two areas of LP, which will have a large impact on the forecast for our area. What has become more and more apparent with time is that models continue to show some resemblance of blocking upstream, which allows for confluence to remain over the area for longer. This area of HP prevents the primary low in the OV from cutting like originally anticipated and instead stalls its northward progress, and as the GFS shows almost pushes it E under the HP. The current depiction stills allows enough northward progress so that hghts ahead of the primary rise on the east coast associated with WAA. That is the reason why even with the GFS having a good coastal track it remains a bit warm, as some have asked. The primary steals the show essentially. What we need to see progressing forward for this solution to become more favorable is increased confluence remaining over the region in association with the psuedo 50/50 which prevents the primary progression N. I see a few possible outcomes. The primary is squashed and phases into the secondary allowing the cold air to flow into the region with secondary cycologenisis. Another outcome would be the LP in the SE US simply moves OTS and the LP over the OV moves into the area in a clippper like fashion with a fresh blast of cooler air, but no connection between the two systems occurs. Or third, models are overestimating the blocking and confluence and the primary cuts allowing for significant WAA and a nice soaking. I disagree with the idea that there is a resemblance of blocking upstream. In fact, the upper air pattern throughout Greenland and Baffin Island as well as Northeast Canada is very poor--heights are very low with low height anomalies even on the GEFS means. The confluent flow is there initially but is allowed to escape due to the lack of blocking all together. There is the potential for some initial surface cold air to hang on, especially inland, and provide the possibility for some ice/snow and wintry mix initially. But the below depicted height pattern is not one which allows for any type of significant wintry precipitation given the degree of warm air advection occurring at all levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 by 78, bos to buff to pitt all above freezing 850 wise, 32 line even more retreated into canada.. mod-heavy precip philly to bos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what an odd looking solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 bout .3-.35 for phl .5 nyc qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 84.. ligh to mod preci[ philly to bos.. everything is just strung out... 850's starting to come back east.. state college west looking at 850's freezingm but surface temps still "warm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 through 96, philly .25"+ of precip, nyc .5-.75" .... .75" + from eatsern CT and points north east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ECM 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anything there with the second low coming up from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anything there with the second low coming up from the south? no, not even close as to what the GFS was showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anything there with the second low coming up from the south? 96hrs on the Ewall sight, trough digging in th southwest 5 Fight Moves That Only Work in the Movies http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.