Radders Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yea... I'm not quite understanding why the 32 line on the surface temps is so far north with this set-up.. With a coastal well east of the area, I would expect a surface wind off the land and would not expect a freezing rain/sleet situation that it depicting in the CCB part of the storm. I would think temps of 32-35 with wet snow for most n&w burbs Looks like the second round gets the NW burbs! Why do the 850s spike so much with the first low pressure system? Seems odd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The interior gets hit hard with ice verbatim. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It seems the low west of the coastal storm is the main culprit and could be the big screw up in what could've been another snow event. I just hope it trends weaker or is further to the west. If the low to the west is weaker or further west, then I see no reason why the coastal can't tap in the cold air around it and give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like the second round gets the NW burbs! Why do the 850s spike so much with the first low pressure system? Seems odd.. I think 850 mb temps will end up being lower than depicted. I think they will hover right around 0 for alot of the north west burbs. I think the column will cool dynamically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 My area (N-Central NJ) has an expected high of 26 on Monday and with a system looking more like a coastal than a cutter I would be shocked to see regular rain..A snow/sleet/Freezing Rain situation will make traveling awful Tues Morning.. Than another storm chance Fri-Sat not bad at all..This winter is starting to look like it could be epic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 2nd low rides up the front and gives the area more rain and snow. The low blows up just in time for SNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 -20 850 isotherm through NYC on 0Z 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 might be struggling to get out of teens for a high next saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 -20 850s make it as far south as most of the state of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 might be struggling to get out of teens for a high next saturday. question is will their be a storm to go along with the cold air next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 might be struggling to get out of teens for a high next saturday. So I guess your saying storm #2 next weekend will be all frozen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 question is will their be a storm to go along with the cold air next weekend? So I guess your saying storm #2 next weekend will be all frozen ? no storm unfortunately.. we lie just south of the Polar Vortex... just windy and bitterly cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That potent short-wave exploding to a miller B bomb slides off to fast and doesn't bomb out until its well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 no storm unfortunately.. we lie just south of the Polar Vortex... just windy and bitterly cold.. cant win, first we miss snow mid week for being too warm, then we miss snow for being too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That potent short-wave exploding to a miller B bomb slides off to fast and doesn't bomb out until its well north. its is the gfs though, euro may still have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It seems the low west of the coastal storm is the main culprit and could be the big screw up in what could've been another snow event. I just hope it trends weaker or is further to the west. If the low to the west is weaker or further west, then I see no reason why the coastal can't tap in the cold air around it and give us snow. This is becoming really interesting.If this depiction is right on the GFS, I would think the surface temps and 850's would be a little colder near the coast, due to the storm bombing out near the BM and the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 its is the gfs though, euro may still have it. yep, very true.. it could change.. we'll see what the Euro has. I wouldn't buy into any solution on a storm yet at that time range. It's a really good set-up for something to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 wow.. the 12Z GFS is mighty interesting now.. coastal inside the benchmark with marginal temps n&w burbs 12z NAM has it warming up here at KSWF 78hrs. and after around.40 of QPF http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 cant win, first we miss snow mid week for being too warm, then we miss snow for being too cold Still plenty of time and potential the euro has been consistent with this threat. The peak of the cold does indeed look to be Fri - Sun (1/21 - 1/23). Beyond there cold holds and all it will take is a clipper to bomb out .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 cant win, first we miss snow mid week for being too warm, then we miss snow for being too cold No we actually have won a lot this winter. We already have above average snowfall. Climatology is in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 No we actually have won a lot this winter. We already have above average snowfall. Climatology is in play here. Agreed, I was betting on no more than 15-20" for my area, but I already exceeded my seasonal total by a few inches and I'm up to 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the entire run of the GFS has us deadlocked into pretty much a ridge west/trough east pattern. I think the last few runs had that pretty much the same too. looks like a good chance at below normal January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 12z GFS depiction portrays two areas of LP, which will have a large impact on the forecast for our area. What has become more and more apparent with time is that models continue to show some resemblance of blocking upstream, which allows for confluence to remain over the area for longer. This area of HP prevents the primary low in the OV from cutting like originally anticipated and instead stalls its northward progress, and as the GFS shows almost pushes it E under the HP. The current depiction stills allows enough northward progress so that hghts ahead of the primary rise on the east coast associated with WAA. That is the reason why even with the GFS having a good coastal track it remains a bit warm, as some have asked. The primary steals the show essentially. What we need to see progressing forward for this solution to become more favorable is increased confluence remaining over the region in association with the psuedo 50/50 which prevents the primary progression N. I see a few possible outcomes. The primary is squashed and phases into the secondary allowing the cold air to flow into the region with secondary cycologenisis. Another outcome would be the LP in the SE US simply moves OTS and the LP over the OV moves into the area in a clippper like fashion with a fresh blast of cooler air, but no connection between the two systems occurs. Or third, models are overestimating the blocking and confluence and the primary cuts allowing for significant WAA and a nice soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 BTW it looks like substantial cold later this week, but I also think the pattern is loaded with potential for the last week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GGEM has a coastal storm but the 850 line is near Buffalo. A lot of rain for all of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 12z GFS depiction portrays two areas of LP, which will have a large impact on the forecast for our area. What has become more and more apparent with time is that models continue to show some resemblance of blocking upstream, which allows for confluence to remain over the area for longer. This area of HP prevents the primary low in the OV from cutting like originally anticipated and instead stalls its northward progress, and as the GFS shows almost pushes it E under the HP. The current depiction stills allows enough northward progress so that hghts ahead of the primary rise on the east coast associated with WAA. That is the reason why even with the GFS having a good coastal track it remains a bit warm, as some have asked. The primary steals the show essentially. What we need to see progressing forward for this solution to become more favorable is increased confluence remaining over the region in association with the psuedo 50/50 which prevents the primary progression N. I see a few possible outcomes. The primary is squashed and phases into the secondary allowing the cold air to flow into the region with secondary cycologenisis. Another outcome would be the LP in the SE US simply moves OTS and the LP over the OV moves into the area in a clippper like fashion with a fresh blast of cooler air, but no connection between the two systems occurs. Or third, models are overestimating the blocking and confluence and the primary cuts allowing for significant WAA and a nice soaking. good summary.. My approach to the last option is basically "I dare you to cut the lakes and soak us". I'd be surprised if it did and would be willing to take a chance that there is zero percent chance of this happenng. I almost look at this similarly to those blocky patterns we sometimes get in the spring where we get stuck in a fog bowl for like 5 days and the models keep predicting a break, but it never actually happens... so then you basically foreast a persistant pattern until it actually ends up breaking for real. Given the current pattern, I'll live and die by the sword and say there is no way this cuts and we get a soaking rain with temps in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is west of the op run. It is a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This could be a problem for forecasters if comes as the GFS depicts. It will be hard to say how much frozen stuff people (especially N&W of the cities) will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good summary.. My approach to the last option is basically "I dare you to cut the lakes and soak us". I'd be surprised if it did and would be willing to take a chance that there is zero percent chance of this happenng. I almost look at this similarly to those blocky patterns we sometimes get in the spring where we get stuck in a fog bowl for like 5 days and the models keep predicting a break, but it never actually happens... so then you basically foreast a persistant pattern until it actually ends up breaking for real. Given the current pattern, I'll live and die by the sword and say there is no way this cuts and we get a soaking rain with temps in the 40's. ... and if I'm completely wrong it's ok.. I'll take it in the chin , but given the wide array of potential solution, I will go with one and stick it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good summary.. My approach to the last option is basically "I dare you to cut the lakes and soak us". I'd be surprised if it did and would be willing to take a chance that there is zero percent chance of this happenng. I almost look at this similarly to those blocky patterns we sometimes get in the spring where we get stuck in a fog bowl for like 5 days and the models keep predicting a break, but it never actually happens... so then you basically foreast a persistant pattern until it actually ends up breaking for real. Given the current pattern, I'll live and die by the sword and say there is no way this cuts and we get a soaking rain with temps in the 40's. I am pretty much in agreement with you. If the 500mb ends up as depicted by current modeling, it would defy laws for this primary to cut. The difference maker in my opinion is however that the primary could still achieve enough northward advancement to allow enough WAA and rising hghts ahead of it that it becomes to warm for the secondary. If you look at the GFS it has this large strung out primary that has moisture stretching a great distance from S to N, simply because it doesn't know where to send the energy. It will more likely be one consolidated LP, and if it is able to slide S and E under the confluence then it brings in colder air as it hooks up with the LP in the SE US. Problem right now is they remain two seperate distinct LPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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