tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Highs or lows? lows...highs are 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This run has to signify the effect of the AO.. That lag effect. This is the cold shot we've been waiting to see. Not that we want it, but the bottom really falls out on this run.. Just absolutely frigid on this run.. That would be pretty impressive this storm did bring lots of moisture followed by record breaking cold temperatures next weekend. You talk about about playoff football being cold.. Reminds me of the AFC 1981 Championship game. Man was that cold. This looks really cold that weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the whole northeast is below 0 from pa north at hr 204 except cities on se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This run has to signify the effect of the AO.. That lag effect. This is the cold shot we've been waiting to see. Not that we want it, but the bottom really falls out on this run.. Just absolutely frigid on this run.. That would be pretty impressive this storm did bring lots of moisture followed by record breaking cold temperatures next weekend. You talk about about playoff football being cold.. Reminds me of the AFC 1981 Championship game. Man was that cold. This looks really cold that weekend.. Its guaranteed to be bone clenching cold for the AFC game next weekend. Whether its in NY,Baltimore,Pitts or Boston, well Foxboro! And yep, I do rem watching that game in 81.San Diego had no chance with that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't know if I believe the event at 144-168 is tracking offshore with no -NAO...the previous event may have to really blow up over the Maritimes otherwise the ensuing storm could cut....it won't be a true cutter but it may try and run over or west slightly of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 952 MB! what?!?! lol how what are the QPF totals for the late week storm?\ EDIT: I see 982 lol Yeah even a 982 would be a 1 to 2 ft type event..Moisture not a concern right now at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't know if I believe the event at 144-168 is tracking offshore with no -NAO...the previous event may have to really blow up over the Maritimes otherwise the ensuing storm could cut....it won't be a true cutter but it may try and run over or west slightly of NYC. it does, it drops to sub 976 and becomes the 50/50 low and creates a -nao, granted not severly neg but enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it does, it drops to sub 976 and becomes the 50/50 low and creates a -nao, granted not severly neg but enough. What does the pattern look like in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 What does the pattern look like in the long range? out to hr 228 pos nao, pos pna trof situated in the east, looks like another cold blast is dropping south hr 240 has the same except the nao isnt as pos, the pna ridge is just massive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it does, it drops to sub 976 and becomes the 50/50 low and creates a -nao, granted not severly neg but enough. Given how strong the trough is at 500 in the Plains at 144 hours, its surprising to see it be only marginally more negativelty tiled at 168 with a further west track...I'll bet many of the Euro's 40 something ensemble members do show some sort of inland track on that storm....if you just showed me the setup at 144 and asked me where the surface low would be at 168 I'd say Plattsburgh or Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Given how strong the trough is at 500 in the Plains at 144 hours, its surprising to see it be only marginally more negativelty tiled at 168 with a further west track...I'll bet many of the Euro's 40 something ensemble members do show some sort of inland track on that storm....if you just showed me the setup at 144 and asked me where the surface low would be at 168 I'd say Plattsburgh or Burlington. not sure if you saw the h5 setup, but here it is for hr 144 and 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How's the Euro MOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Whoever said tonights 00z NOGAPS looked like the GFS was wrong... GFS @ 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 96 hour analogs are not in yet but here are the ice storm and snow composities for the 72 hour CIPS analogs...03/13/84 is the one event which is showing up all over...it was a 1-3 inch snow followed by several hours of FZRA for the immediate city, the interior saw significant icing. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1984/us0313.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 next sat it has 0-5 for the cities...below zero in the burbs...its has temps in central canada off the bottom of the scale which is -40 lol Temps in the NW Territories are already in the=50s waiting to drop in with the developing +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 6z nam looks interesting verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We're back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We're back? Colder and colder on the latest guidance and the threat in the 22nd - 25th timeframe continues with support on the ecm/ ggem (to a degree but supressed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Nam At 72 hours, NYC has 0.14 QPF with a temperature of 32.5. After that, temps rise to 37.7 degrees with a cold rain. Looks like a real icy situation to the north and west of the City on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Nam At 72 hours, NYC has 0.14 QPF with a temperature of 32.5. After that, temps rise to 37.7 degrees with a cold rain. Looks like a real icy situation to the north and west of the City on the nam. Yeah for N NJ / NYC looks to be 1-2" of snow/sleet at the front, then ice/rain inland with temps at 32-35, and then cold rain 35-40 on the coast. Either way looks like the snowpack could hold and flooding will be non-existent or minimal. As long as the coastal remains to our east will be very hard to get temps above 35-40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 wow.. the 12Z GFS is mighty interesting now.. coastal inside the benchmark with marginal temps n&w burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS is definitely showing an interesting situation... 850s NW of the city are somewhat marginal - 0 line cuts across CT/MA border, but it is very close to being an all frozen event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 wow.. the 12Z GFS is mighty interesting now.. coastal inside the benchmark with marginal temps n&w burbs Yup, very juicy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 At 99, it is developing another wave of low pressure, that is running up the coast on the heels of the first system... Colder air in place at this point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Belly to belly storms lol.....interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS is definitely showing an interesting situation... 850s NW of the city are somewhat marginal - 0 line cuts across CT/MA border, but it is very close to being an all frozen event... yea... I'm not quite understanding why the 32 line on the surface temps is so far north with this set-up.. With a coastal well east of the area, I would expect a surface wind off the land and would not expect a freezing rain/sleet situation that it depicting in the CCB part of the storm. I would think temps of 32-35 with wet snow for most n&w burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yea... I'm not quite understanding why the 32 line on the surface temps is so far north with this set-up.. With a coastal well east of the area, I would expect a surface wind off the land and would not expect a freezing rain/sleet situation that it depicting in the CCB part of the storm. I would think temps of 32-35 with wet snow for most n&w burbs Details aside major deepining storms sure do like passing right over the benchmark this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 2nd low looks interesting for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I was saying a few days ago that I would not be surprised at all if this trended southeast.. We seem to be dead-locked into this coastal set-up type pattern.. the best forecast is persistance right now. I would not forecast a lakes cutter until just before it actually happened at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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