tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it has the same gen idea at hr 96 with the extension, with the stronger low about 400 miles off jerz coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 about .6 total qpf for phl some of that is frozen prob like .1-.15 nyc is 1.1 qpf with .2 of that frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 about .6 total qpf for phl some of that is frozen prob like .1-.15 nyc is 1.1 qpf with .2 of that frozen Still sounds like a pretty crappy event overall. I wish we could get the coastal to bomb away and bring some dynamic cooling to the region. Looks like 2-4" snowfall here in the northern burbs, probably some light icing, and then over to rain. It may be enough to delay/cancel schools in Westchester Tuesday given the timing of the event. Snowpack will remain intact, but we'll lose a few inches, which isn't too big a deal considering there's 12" snowpack in town and 18" in the elevated forests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Still sounds like a pretty crappy event overall. I wish we could get the coastal to bomb away and bring some dynamic cooling to the region. Looks like 2-4" snowfall here in the northern burbs, probably some light icing, and then over to rain. It may be enough to delay/cancel schools in Westchester Tuesday given the timing of the event. Snowpack will remain intact, but we'll lose a few inches, which isn't too big a deal considering there's 12" snowpack in town and 18" in the elevated forests. yea you get a better front end dump, but u get more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Still sounds like a pretty crappy event overall. I wish we could get the coastal to bomb away and bring some dynamic cooling to the region. Looks like 2-4" snowfall here in the northern burbs, probably some light icing, and then over to rain. It may be enough to delay/cancel schools in Westchester Tuesday given the timing of the event. Snowpack will remain intact, but we'll lose a few inches, which isn't too big a deal considering there's 12" snowpack in town and 18" in the elevated forests. Compared to the warm and extremely wet event the GFS was advertising for the past few days? I'll glady take what the models are showing tonight and just get this storm over with then we go into a b-e-a utiful pattern after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yea you get a better front end dump, but u get more precip I just hope a bunch of it is ZR in the suburbs to ice in the snowpack. This looks like the type of event where the surface will hold out longer than the 850s, especially as we get closer and models begin to see the strength of the damming high. SE winds won't be as deadly as usual, either, because the extremely cold winter has reduced SSTs dramatically. The storm has slowly been trending colder as the ECM was originally all rain for NYC metro...now we've definitely got a dangerous mixed precipitation event in the suburbs which looks to disrupt travel and work before a changeover. Also, with the coastal trending stronger, we may see some nuisance snows on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the late next week storm is building in the plains at hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Compared to the warm and extremely wet event the GFS was advertising for the past few days? I'll glady take what the models are showing tonight and just get this storm over with then we go into a b-e-a utiful pattern after it. It's definitely been a major improvement in the past few days; at one point, this looked like a total washout. Now I might get to enjoy a light snowfall and a day off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I just hope a bunch of it is ZR in the suburbs to ice in the snowpack. This looks like the type of event where the surface will hold out longer than the 850s, especially as we get closer and models begin to see the strength of the damming high. SE winds won't be as deadly as usual, either, because the extremely cold winter has reduced SSTs dramatically. The storm has slowly been trending colder as the ECM was originally all rain for NYC metro...now we've definitely got a dangerous mixed precipitation event in the suburbs which looks to disrupt travel and work before a changeover. Also, with the coastal trending stronger, we may see some nuisance snows on the back end. the euro doesnt have the backend precip like the gfs. Once the coastal moves out, precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 honestly, i can't go by the 2m temps on the euro for the coast. It over compensates the warmth of the ocean, on my maps. Gfs temps are prob the best to go with, since they are both showing the same thing at the surface basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 144 has a sub 1008 low over se ga... nice 50/50 low in place with tremendous digging on the back side and good hgt rises on the ec...lgt precip is up to dc...its not really neg titl so im not sure how far north its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 150 has a 1000 low on hse....1-.25 from ocean county to ttn to mdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 156 has a sub 992 low about 100-150 miles east of acy ... .1-.25 for all of pa and garden state parkway west .25-.5 garden state parway east up to nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 sub 504 thickness down into ky on the backsid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Compared to the warm and extremely wet event the GFS was advertising for the past few days? I'll glady take what the models are showing tonight and just get this storm over with then we go into a b-e-a utiful pattern after it. Agreed if We can get mostly frozen not wet out of Tues Event even if it is only a couple inches its better than a big rain storm than moving forward looks like a couple more even better snow opportunities present themselves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 162 sub 986 low about 50-75 miles east of cc another .1-.25 for everyone 504 thickness entering wpa, and dives down into ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 156 has a sub 992 low about 100-150 miles east of acy ... .1-.25 for all of pa and garden state parkway west .25-.5 garden state parway east up to nyc and li I wonder why such a strong low that close has such little precip? Anyway, terrific signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Someone needs to explain why with a track like that so little qpf is being thrown back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 jeez hr 168 has -16 850s to atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 jeez hr 168 has -16 850s to atlanta... sounds like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Someone needs to explain why with a track like that so little qpf is being thrown back The Euro often runs too low on precip in that range, we've seen it on some of the events so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 174 504 thickness at phl and nyc about -20 850s...2m temps single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 952 MB! what?!?! lol how what are the QPF totals for the late week storm?\ EDIT: I see 982 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 sounds like the Euro and GFS couldnt be further apart on the placement of the low in the day 6 range.Euro has a coastal while the GFS brings in the clipper from the ohio valley, either way, after the low goes by then it gets very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 next sat it has 0-5 for the cities...below zero in the burbs...its has temps in central canada off the bottom of the scale which is -40 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 next sat it has 0-5 for the cities...below zero in the burbs...its has temps in central canada off the bottom of the scale which is -40 lol Highs or lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 sounds like the Euro and GFS couldnt be further apart on the placement of the low in the day 6 range.Euro has a coastal while the GFS brings in the clipper from the ohio valley, either way, after the low goes by then it gets very cold. ggem, backs the euro with its idea though, so right now id give this track more merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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