tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I lived in Allentown from about 2004 through 2009. I do recall one winter where the temps got near 0 one night. It seems like it was within the last 4 winters, but that is the coldest I've got to in recent years. Do you think this would rival that, as modeled? I'll have to check Mt Holly climatology info to see what night that was. im not sure what the thicknesses were for that time period. But if you have a sub 498 thickness over (hopefully) a snow pack, with -22 to -24 850s the cities would deff be in the single digits and burbs i would say below zero.This is assuming we have light winds and no clouds to. A good look would be to look at feb 2007 with that cold outbreak, with the slizzards. A couple of those days were brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 A couple years ago we reached -8F here at my house. If this verifies, I'll be curious to see if we can rival that temp. The other morning we were down to +7F and that doesn't feel that bad compared to -8F. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has a coastal like the Euro now around D10 - looks like most stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good lord its brutally cold on the gfs after that mauler. If we can have somewhat of a snow pack with sub 504 thickness, that could be the coldest day/night in years, assuming no wind. Do not worry, it will be cold. The snow pack will be down to three inches or less and will be sufficient enuf for significant radiational cooling to take place with temps down zero or slightly below zero. What I see happening is right after this cold wave starts-3-4 days later , we will get pounded with a snow event. The cold air will be fresh and ready for it. By the way- after 2-4 inches of snow for the ABE area with this storm, we go to period of freezing rain then back to snow for a quick coatin. The snow pack will take the freezing rain after it initially leaves a ice crust on top of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has a coastal like the Euro now around D10 - looks like most stay snow. the extended GFS, if correct, would produce a MAJOR storm based on the h5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has a coastal like the Euro now around D10 - looks like most stay snow. That would all be snow ! With the exception of the southern Jersey Shore.... And a significant amount of snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 im not sure what the thicknesses were for that time period. But if you have a sub 498 thickness over (hopefully) a snow pack, with -22 to -24 850s the cities would deff be in the single digits and burbs i would say below zero.This is assuming we have light winds and no clouds to. A good look would be to look at feb 2007 with that cold outbreak, with the slizzards. A couple of those days were brutal. ABE reached -2 in 12/2005 and around 0 in 3/2007. It was one of those months. As I recall, there was no snowpack but it was the coldest I remember since living in the northeast (2004) and for that matter in my life. Coming close was a "day: I spent sampling in Massena, NY where the high was around 5 above about 5 years or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That would all be snow ! With the exception of the southern Jersey Shore.... And a significant amount of snow too Yep - 0c 850 line is around Philly for a time, though, so maybe some ice problems in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The NOGAPS is very similar to the GFS on its 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z GGEM is different than the GFS. GGEM shows a lot of rain for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I lived in Allentown from about 2004 through 2009. I do recall one winter where the temps got near 0 one night. It seems like it was within the last 4 winters, but that is the coldest I've got to in recent years. Do you think this would rival that, as modeled? I'll have to check Mt Holly climatology info to see what night that was. 1993-94 was the winner. There were days when I drove to work and the snow and ice remain on the road was snow packed on Brookside Rd Rt 222, even for us and was below zero a bunch of days. I remember my digital thermometer locked up at -25 below zero and would not reset and we had ice fog in backyard along the Little Lehigh because everything was frozen except the creek because it was spring fed. All the trees were iced over as well as as on my cars from the fog. Many people could not even open their car doors because of frozen gaskets and not frozen locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 heres the hr 96 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The way the GFS has been too east this winter and the fact the progressive NOGAPS is showing the same track as the GFS may mean the GEM is more correct.....the Euro and GFS ensembles will help alot...this is a different system than we've been dealing with all winter and its possible that the GEM west/warm bias is playing in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The way the GFS has been too east this winter and the fact the progressive NOGAPS is showing the same track as the GFS may mean the GEM is more correct.....the Euro and GFS ensembles will help alot...this is a different system than we've been dealing with all winter and its possible that the GEM west/warm bias is playing in more. 84 hrs is pretty much similar to the GFS GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 84 hrs is pretty much similar to the GFS The crap graphics seem to indicate the GEM may be hitting the Lakes low harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The crap graphics seem to indicate the GEM may be hitting the Lakes low harder. 1003 in the Lakes verse the GFS 1002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 fwiw heres the hr 144 ggem, looks almost exactly like the euro did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 heres the ukmet at hr 72, looks like its about the same as the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anyone want to guess what direction the GFS soundings have the winds from at 78 and 81 hours based on this depiction for LGA/JFK???? If you said SE you would be right....that would make the GFS very very very wrong...if you think what I just said sounded "DTish" you would also be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anyone want to guess what direction the GFS soundings have the winds from at 78 and 81 hours based on this depiction for LGA/JFK???? If you said SE you would be right....that would make the GFS very very very wrong...if you think what I just said sounded "DTish" you would also be right this is yonkers sounding at hr 78, but yes a southerly component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 theoretically, once that coastal forms the winds switch to a more ene to ne esp inland. That should hault the warming. So if the gfs is overdoing 2m temps, wouldn't that would lead to more of an ice threat? It only pops abe to 34 and phl 34 on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 heres the ggem at hr 96, a lot further west with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good lord its brutally cold on the gfs after that mauler. If we can have somewhat of a snow pack with sub 504 thickness, that could be the coldest day/night in years, assuming no wind. most likely the mauler would blow up off the coast and keep us pretty breezy the first night, much like this week. maybe the second night though. I wonder if PHL gets back down to single digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If I'm reading the GGEM right it seems like a decent-sized winter storm for the interior through hr96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 lets see what the euro does tonight, out to hr 12 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 throiugh 54 hrs, the euro is a lot quicker with the southern stream storm and slower with the northern stream storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 lgt snow for the area at hr 78...coastal is forming off se coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 84 looks exactly like gfs it has like an extention of a low towards our area with the stronger area of low pressure like 200 miles off hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 84 looks exactly like gfs it has like an extention of a low towards our area with the stronger area of low pressure like 200 miles off hse Where is the 850 line and how much precipitation falls this frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 84 looks exactly like gfs it has like an extention of a low towards our area with the stronger area of low pressure like 200 miles off hse hey tombo isnt that a weird looking low at hr 84? lol almost like a mini cane this is my last post, but i just wanted to throw it out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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