donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the GFS for next weekend, which John posted is a Mantobia Mualer or somewhat close to it, those events can pack quite a punch if timed perfectly such as the Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard of 1978 in Southern New England with the Miller B cyclogenesis. The Alberta Clipper is the weakest form of the shortwaves (clippers) that orginate in Canada. There are three: Clpper, Mauler, Screamer. The Saskatchewan Screamer is the strongest form of these and they are much more rare than the Mauler and Clipper. Chris, You got the "Screamer" and "Mauler" mixed up. The mauler is the most "dangerous," as it typically takes on a negative tilt as it digs toward the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what about the Northern Ontario Nailbiter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The NAM is doing what it has often this year in the end of its range firing low centers up all over the place...they really should run this model only out to 72 or even 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what about the Northern Ontario Nailbiter? Weenies and their love for canadian provinces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Chris, You got the "Screamer" and "Mauler" mixed up. The mauler is the most "dangerous," as it typically takes on a negative tilt as it digs toward the East Coast. Thank You, Don for the correction. Fully Graceful for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 if we do get more snow tuesday, we could be looking at a very extended period of snow cover. only since last friday here, but if we get more tuesday, then cold, then more friday, we could be looking at 2+ weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It's a shame that southern stream isn't faster at hour 54 or we'd have a nice storm on our hands, followed by a huge cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anything going on with the clipper this wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is really interesting Hi, Snow88 - the high looked to be more south this run, maybe leading to more CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Hi, Snow88 - the high looked to be more south this run, maybe leading to more CAD. There is more of a CAD signature on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 There is more of a CAD signature on this run. Yeah, down in my area it looks like 1-3" of snow and then a good dose of rain. Looks similar for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 There is more of a CAD signature on this run. Either way though, this pattern looks to be more of light snow very early close to coast before quick changeover to rain. To much WA to combat the residual cold air especially with the high shifting well to the south and east. Inland areas however could be dealing with a snow to ice type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 at hr 84, both the GFS & NAM have an anomalous blob of precip over NC/VA coasts. the GFS has a stronger low, more over-running moisture, and they both seem to *relatively* agree on how much CAD we ahve going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Either way though, this pattern looks to be more of light snow very early close to coast before quick changeover to rain. To much WA to combat the residual cold air especially with the high shifting well to the south and east. Inland areas however could be dealing with a snow to ice type scenario. I'm not expecting a lot of snow. Just give me 1-3 inches before the rain and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 just gotta hope that coastal develops later, or less phasing. This run the northern stream was a little more agressive in diving down, thus the earlier coastal development. If that happens its just a lgt snow to ice then to some mod rain of .5, not inch plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anything going on with the clipper this wknd? Misses the area to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS for NYC looks like snow to ice then maybe some rain then snow again. Lets see what the ECMWF has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If the 00Z GFS scenario played out exactly there would be no changeover beyond PL or FZRA west of the Nassau/Suffolk border despite what the GFS may want to say....we'll see what the GEM and Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 10-4 agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If the 00Z GFS scenario played out exactly there would be no changeover beyond PL or FZRA west of the Nassau/Suffolk border despite what the GFS may want to say....we'll see what the GEM and Euro show. Wait, you mean no changeover, like to rain from pl or fzra, how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good lord its brutally cold on the gfs after that mauler. If we can have somewhat of a snow pack with sub 504 thickness, that could be the coldest day/night in years, assuming no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wait, you mean no changeover, like to rain from pl or fzra, how so? Almost all cases in which there is a strong high positioned where the GFS shows it at 72-78 hours and the surface low tracks east of NYC there has been an extended period of frozen precipitation, usually beyond what any of the forecasts had or the models had been showing...I may have been too aggressive by stating no changeover but 85-90% of what falls may very be frozen if that scenario played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 sub 498 thickness for all on the gfs... -20 to -24 850s all the way down to north carolina, thats insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS backed off the miller b potential for next weekend. The clipper passes by to our north but it looks like we will some snow from it on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Almost all cases in which there is a strong high positioned where the GFS shows it at 72-78 hours and the surface low tracks east of NYC there has been an extended period of frozen precipitation, usually beyond what any of the forecasts had or the models had been showing...I may have been too aggressive by stating no changeover but 85-90% of what falls may very be frozen if that scenario played out. does that work the same for phl and its burbs, considering they are not right on the coast, a little more interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Almost all cases in which there is a strong high positioned where the GFS shows it at 72-78 hours and the surface low tracks east of NYC there has been an extended period of frozen precipitation, usually beyond what any of the forecasts had or the models had been showing...I may have been too aggressive by stating no changeover but 85-90% of what falls may very be frozen if that scenario played out. I don't know if I agree with you 100%, but you do have some very valid points/concerns, especially considering how cold it's going to be on Monday. If you turn out to be right, we can call this the Goose Storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 does that work the same for phl and its burbs, considering they are not right no the coast, a little more interior? Yes, the further inland you are in these types of storms the better, sometimes Newark stays more frozen than even Central Park does on these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good lord its brutally cold on the gfs after that mauler. If we can have somewhat of a snow pack with sub 504 thickness, that could be the coldest day/night in years, assuming no wind. I lived in Allentown from about 2004 through 2009. I do recall one winter where the temps got near 0 one night. It seems like it was within the last 4 winters, but that is the coldest I've got to in recent years. Do you think this would rival that, as modeled? I'll have to check Mt Holly climatology info to see what night that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yes, the further inland you are in these types of storms the better, sometimes Newark stays more frozen than even Central Park does on these events. And Central Park more than LGA, and LGA more than JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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