snywx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Snow and then freezing rain on top. not a good combo Def. a good way to preserve snowpack though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It does look like an icy mess, particularly for the N and W suburbs and especially for NW NJ, NE PA, SE NY. It's those pockets of subfreezing temperatures that really make things a mess. Models tend to underestimate low level cold in these situations although this looks like a semi-cad situation at 90 hrs in particular. The much weaker and further south primary is the main culprit in the gfs more icy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How much ice are we talking for say Morris, Passaic counties? ISW criteria? or just a FRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How much ice are we talking for say Morris, Passaic counties? ISW criteria? or just a FRA? It's difficult to tell at this point because we aren't in the range of the higher resolution models like the NAM that pick up well on radiational cooling, snow pack moderation, CAD, etc....It could be a nasty situation though, definitely a classic set-up for an ice event in elevated areas with a slow to depart high pressure over Southeast Canada and a weak primary cutting to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It does look like an icy mess, particularly for the N and W suburbs and especially for NW NJ, NE PA, SE NY. It's those pockets of subfreezing temperatures that really make things a mess. Models tend to underestimate low level cold in these situations although this looks like a semi-cad situation at 90 hrs in particular. The much weaker and further south primary is the main culprit in the gfs more icy look. Agreed....I'll be turning the heat up hear in Berks county on Tuesday for the power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 post the same map at hr 72...big difference. you could tell by the 48hr map that it was definitely going to be colder...not saying its right....but the axis was way further east and south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 miller b next friday looks like an increasing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this reminds of a storm like10 years ago it was on super bowl sunday. The low temps the morning of the event were in the low teens and upper single digits. Started off as a front end snow then went to ice, then eventually over to rain. Per the 18z gfs looks kind of like that. rams vs titans SB that ended on the 1 yd line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 miller b next friday looks like an increasing threat. look at how long the stretch of energy is....from Alaske/NW Territories thru the ohio valley.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this reminds of a storm like10 years ago it was on super bowl sunday. The low temps the morning of the event were in the low teens and upper single digits. Started off as a front end snow then went to ice, then eventually over to rain. Per the 18z gfs looks kind of like that. now considering where the axis is...i still cant get jan 1987 out of my mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Also has the Miller B next week. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Also has the Miller B next week. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f162.gif that map looks WAy different than th NCEP maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 that map looks WAy different than th NCEP maps That's the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Now imagine if this northern stream energy were to merge with the southern stream energy that the Euro is saying produces a coastal storm next weekend? miller b next friday looks like an increasing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Also has the Miller B next week. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f162.gif It looks as if all the models are picking up on a Manitoba Mauler storm coming down, but the question is: does the vort dig far enough south for NYC metro? Cold air definitely looks to be there as soon as the front goes through following the slop storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That's the DGEX. aaaah, took for granted it was the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its Miller B city on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its Miller B city on the GFS Yep. Clipper after clipper on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very good signal at this range. With the blocking increasing by this time frame, I like what I see early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 aaaah, took for granted it was the GFS By bad, should have specified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How about the Euro solution with the coastal low next weekend? Could this potential merge with the potential shown on the Euro? Very good signal at this range. With the blocking increasing by this time frame, I like what I see early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very good signal at this range. With the blocking increasing by this time frame, I like what I see early on. Love those 480m thicknesses over Hudson Bay...going to get crazy cold behind that storm.. Starting to notice ice on the Hudson River here in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Love those 480m thicknesses over Hudson Bay...going to get crazy cold behind that storm.. Starting to notice ice on the Hudson River here in Dobbs Ferry. The Schuylkill River was frozen over today, at least the parts I could see in Center City. It looked like (from 39 flrs up) there was some moving water under the South Street bridge, but most of the river was completely iced over. I cannot recall seeing so many -40C 850 lines like some recent models have, let alone as far south as some of them come. It brings back memories of 94. I can remember clearly one day going to get food around dinner time and the car thermometer read 5*. As bone-chilling as it was, there was an additional psychological factor that made it feel even colder somehow lol I am not saying we'll get to that level of cold this season, but seeing -30s/-40s over Canada and waking up to 11* this morning has made me feel somewhat nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the GFS for next weekend, which John posted is a Mantobia Mualer or somewhat close to it, those events can pack quite a punch if timed perfectly such as the Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard of 1978 in Southern New England with the Miller B cyclogenesis. The Alberta Clipper is the weakest form of the shortwaves (clippers) that orginate in Canada. There are three: Clpper, Mauler, Screamer. The Saskatchewan Screamer is the strongest form of these and they are much more rare than the Mauler and Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the GFS for next weekend, which John posted is a Mantobia Mualer or somewhat close to it, those events can pack quite a punch if timed perfectly such as the Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard of 1978 in Southern New England with the Miller B cyclogenesis. The Alberta Clipper is the weakest form of the shortwaves (clippers) that orginate in Canada. There are three: Clpper, Mauler, Screamer. The Saskatchewan Screamer is the strongest form of these and they are much more rare than the Mauler and Clipper. I know John mentioned this already, but with the PNA spike, the shortwave might be able to dig a little bit deeper further west...just tossing that out there....something to watch I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I cannot recall seeing so many -40C 850 lines like some recent models have, let alone as far south as some of them come. It brings back memories of 94. I can remember clearly one day going to get food around dinner time and the car thermometer read 5*. As bone-chilling as it was, there was an additional psychological factor that made it feel even colder somehow lol I am not saying we'll get to that level of cold this season, but seeing -30s/-40s over Canada and waking up to 11* this morning has made me feel somewhat nostalgic. You usually only see the -40C 850mb contour in Alaska, Greenland, or Siberia...but it's certainly possible with the 474dm polar vortex models are advertising, which eventually migrates to Hudson Bay and sets up the arctic snap for NYC metro It's clear we're benefiting from much colder airmasses this winter, as I considered 09-10 a fairly mild winter despite being slightly below average in temperatures with a lot of snow. The strong La Niña has cooled global temperatures significantly, and it also serves to strengthen the polar vortex along with the +QBO, meaning that in a blocking regime we can get a really cold vortex to descend into the CONUS. It's interesting that this season's polar vortex has been quite strong yet quite disturbed at the same time, definitely a signal of the long-term blocking pattern we've entered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nam is pretty weak with the primary low thru the lakes, so CAD is doing its work at hr 84 with a weak low moving due north from the Outer Banks..Likely a snow to mix/frz rain to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nam is pretty weak with the primary low thru the lakes, so CAD is doing its work at hr 84 with a weak low moving due north from the Outer Banks..Likely a snow to mix/frz rain to plain rain. Nam has 3 lows. One in the lakes, one running up the coast and one in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nam has 3 lows. One in the lakes, one running up the coast and one in the south. Triple point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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