IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS is running....let's see what we get, seem's to be a box of chochlate's these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BTW, anybody notice the 18Z NAM. It takes our southern stream low all the way down to Tamap, FL. At the same time, a low is popping off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A bigger storm means a warmer solution with heavy rain. If you want colder and snow potentials, you don't want a bigger storm this time. I do not necessarily think a bigger storm would necessarily mean a warmer storm either. i think it would all depend on how wrapped up and how west it actually gets. At this point i think its too far to the west ,,,,its the western most extreme For example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BTW, anybody notice the 18Z NAM. It takes our southern stream low all the way down to Tamap, FL. At the same time, a low is popping off the NC coast. i see, but it also slides the high northeast and the northern stream low is to far. So you get southerly winds and the bl starts to warm fast. You need no phasing at that northern stream to track further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 As I already mentioned, I'm in favor of rain, as long as it comes down in buckets and makes it worth while. Nothing would be worse than a boring inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have not been following this event too much because of work load. Are the models all over the place on this event or are they steady or starting to trend a certain way? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 i see, but it also slides the high northeast and the northern stream low is to far. So you get southerly winds and the bl starts to warm fast. You need no phasing at that northern stream to track further south. What about the second high thats located more or less right over our area at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What about the second high thats located more or less right over our area at that time? thats retreating...The northern stream system is already to far north, you can see the southerly push on that map with the blue and red lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What about the second high thats located more or less right over our area at that time? That's just a local area of higher pressure so the model puts a big "H" there. The isobars are where you should look..and you can see they are way northeast and not in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 thats retreating...The northern stream system is already to far north, you can see the southerly push on that map with the blue and red lines. Any chance we can get more energy from the northern stream to drop in and phase with the system as it moves through the gulf and end up with a miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Any chance we can get more energy from the northern stream to drop in and phase with the system as it moves through the gulf and end up with a miller A? i guess there's always a chance. You just need the northern stream low to drop further south if you want a snowier look. If you just want to hold on to your snow pack then you dont want a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Any of the mets, or Tombo want to analyze the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this just doesnt look like a warm map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 post the same map at hr 72...big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Hi 1234 No joke...check out www.wxsim.com for information. But real quick it is a customized local forecasting model (in your backyard forecast) that uses the GFS/NAM and lots of complicated advection routines...using both your own weather station and obs upwind etc. All of this produces a very customized local forecast for your slice of the world. Paul www.chescowx.com I have been reading these forecasts of yours for quite some time. Are they for real, or is this some kind of a joke? Do you really have your own forecast model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 post the same map at hr 72...big difference. GFS looks further south and weaker with the system at 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 and as i speak the gfs comes in different...actually gives dc 1-3 inches of snow...a lot colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This run gives NYC a couple of inches before the changeover. Much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS is pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What a wreck http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This run gives NYC a couple of inches before the changeover. Much colder. GFS looks much more interesting for NYC, especially northwest burbs which may face quite a frozen precip event. The nam at 84 hours looked like it was setting up for a similar solution also, although I recognize it's the nam at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 gfs continues to show a 2nd piece of energy that rides up afterwards with an area of lgt precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS is pretty cold Very messy run for the suburbs, as I suspected. Tuesday morning looks snowy and icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very messy run for the suburbs, as I suspected. Tuesday morning looks snowy and icy. There must be some kind of error... NW burbs getting in on the action and leaving out LI is unheard of this day in age.. *sarcasm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very messy run for the suburbs, as I suspected. Tuesday morning looks snowy and icy. Yep, it looks icy. Surface temps are below 32 while 850's are above 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this reminds of a storm like10 years ago it was on super bowl sunday. The low temps the morning of the event were in the low teens and upper single digits. Started off as a front end snow then went to ice, then eventually over to rain. Per the 18z gfs looks kind of like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yep, it looks icy. Surface temps are below 32 while 850's are above 0c. Looks as if everyone starts with 2-4" of snow and then we deal with a possibility for freezing rain in the suburbs. Definitely going to be a nasty commute up this way if the GFS verifies, and probably will cause more school closings/delays as has been the routine lately with the winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks as if everyone starts with 2-4" of snow and then we deal with a possibility for freezing rain in the suburbs. Definitely going to be a nasty commute up this way if the GFS verifies, and probably will cause more school closings/delays as has been the routine lately with the winter weather. Snow and then freezing rain on top. not a good combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Interesting, thank you. Hi 1234 No joke...check out www.wxsim.com for information. But real quick it is a customized local forecasting model (in your backyard forecast) that uses the GFS/NAM and lots of complicated advection routines...using both your own weather station and obs upwind etc. All of this produces a very customized local forecast for your slice of the world. Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it looks like the reason for the colder solution is the northern stream storm is weaker and heads further nw with its track also the southern stream storm doesnt get going till later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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