iceman56 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So, to my very untrained eye, the big thaw advertised by some for the last week of the month appears to be off the table. Correct, or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 is there any chance the rain turns over to snow for the Jersey Shore? bout as much chance as the giants winning the super bowl this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So, to my very untrained eye, the big thaw advertised by some for the last week of the month appears to be off the table. Correct, or no? You should probably use your trained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Bastardi is finally giving into the cold - said he will have big changes to his forecast next week- Can you believe he admitted he was wrong about his warm winter!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So Dobbs Ferry will cancel school over a few hundreths of an inch of snow and ice?? Starting to sound like Waterbury... That's all it takes for a school bus to slide down a hill taking out kids along the way before it slides through the intersection at the bottom of that hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That's all it takes for a school bus to slide down a hill taking out kids along the way before it slides through the intersection at the bottom of that hill. That may be so..but it doesn't warrant canceling school when the precipitation is going to quickly change to rain and melt any of that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Bastardi is finally giving into the cold - said he will have big changes to his forecast next week- Can you believe he admitted he was wrong about his warm winter!! Rossi Saw that too--now he will over-do it and go historic cold only to see historic warmth after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That may be so..but it doesn't warrant canceling school when the precipitation is going to quickly change to rain and melt any of that anyway. 850s don't go above 0C on the ECM for my area until like 9am...so it would be cold enough for snow/ice when the buses were sent out. It doesn't really matter what happens later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 850s don't go above 0C on the ECM for my area until like 9am...so it would be cold enough for snow/ice when the buses were sent out. It doesn't really matter what happens later. delayed opening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 delayed opening... Yeah there's a way better chance for a delay than a snow day, and that's what I told the students today at school... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW 12 Z NOGAPS @ 120 Is this rain? fwiw the nogaps wasnt that bad with the last storm overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Is this rain? fwiw the nogaps wasnt that bad with the last storm overall The 540 line is in central PA and the low pressure is ontop of the I-95 corridor. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 540 line is in central PA and the low pressure is ontop of the I-95 corridor. Rain. where I am at it blocks pics, so I literally could'nt see it lol, thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 324 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-151100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 324 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...A PERIOD OF SNOW...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OVER TO PLAIN RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That's all it takes for a school bus to slide down a hill taking out kids along the way before it slides through the intersection at the bottom of that hill. Should we cancel school for rain too? Rain very clearly impacts overall traction when driving. And 99 percent of schoolbus accidents that involve injured children happen in nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Latest Wxsim forecast continues to paint a frozen picture for the NW Philly burbs (30mi). I noticed earlier in the thread whether models account for snowcover?? My Wxsim program runs its own routine based on my forecast initialization time with the snow cover I input. It then calculates snow cover each day of the forecast period. My forecast begins with the current 5.5" snowcover and the model predicts their still being 3.3" on the ground by Wednesday evening. The detailed Forecast has an overnight low on Monday morning of 4 degrees...High for the day 30. Snow beginning around midnight (temp 18.2) changing to IP/SN by 7am (0.22") (temp 24.5) and then over to ZR at 9am (temp 27.5) temp reaches a high of 32.0 at 2pm with ZR continuing. By rush hour temperature continues to fall to 30.7 by 530pm with ZR continuing. IP begins to mix with the ZR by midnight and then a transition back to snow (1.0') before ending by 6am on Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Latest Wxsim forecast continues to paint a frozen picture for the NW Philly burbs (30mi). I noticed earlier in the thread whether models account for snowcover?? My Wxsim program runs its own routine based on my forecast initialization time with the snow cover I input. It then calculates snow cover each day of the forecast period. My forecast begins with the current 5.5" snowcover and the model predicts their still being 3.3" on the ground by Wednesday evening. The detailed Forecast has an overnight low on Monday morning of 4 degrees...High for the day 30. Snow beginning around midnight (temp 18.2) changing to IP/SN by 7am (0.22") (temp 24.5) and then over to ZR at 9am (temp 27.5) temp reaches a high of 32.0 at 2pm with ZR continuing. By rush hour temperature continues to fall to 30.7 by 530pm with ZR continuing. IP begins to mix with the ZR by midnight and then a transition back to snow (1.0') before ending by 6am on Wednesday morning. that sounds like a travel nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm a tad suprised HPC has elected not to include a chance of significant ice at this time in its outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Is this rain? fwiw the nogaps wasnt that bad with the last storm overall Yes it would be rain at that point cause it once again is really wrapped up and west. It started this last night at 6 z Here is better images The thing that concerns me here is that this is a progressive model with a SE Bias. It was correct in sniffing out the further west storm last storm and was the first to actually show it..So needless to say I will be watching this closely. Last time its most west extreme was on SNJ so, i think this is probably showing its most west extreme again and should be further east. How much is the question? Other models I feel should be going back to a big storm idea IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have been reading these forecasts of yours for quite some time. Are they for real, or is this some kind of a joke? Do you really have your own forecast model? Latest Wxsim forecast continues to paint a frozen picture for the NW Philly burbs (30mi). I noticed earlier in the thread whether models account for snowcover?? My Wxsim program runs its own routine based on my forecast initialization time with the snow cover I input. It then calculates snow cover each day of the forecast period. My forecast begins with the current 5.5" snowcover and the model predicts their still being 3.3" on the ground by Wednesday evening. The detailed Forecast has an overnight low on Monday morning of 4 degrees...High for the day 30. Snow beginning around midnight (temp 18.2) changing to IP/SN by 7am (0.22") (temp 24.5) and then over to ZR at 9am (temp 27.5) temp reaches a high of 32.0 at 2pm with ZR continuing. By rush hour temperature continues to fall to 30.7 by 530pm with ZR continuing. IP begins to mix with the ZR by midnight and then a transition back to snow (1.0') before ending by 6am on Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yes it would be rain at that point cause it once again is really wrapped up and west. It started this last night at 6 z Here is better images The thing that concerns me here is that this is a progressive model with a SE Bias. It was correct in sniffing out the further west storm last storm and was the first to actually show it..So needless to say I will be watching this closely. Last time its most west extreme was on SNJ so, i think this is probably showing its most west extreme again and should be further east. How much is the question? Other models I feel should be going back to a big storm idea IMO From what the NOGAPS is showing, the Poconos should see some front end and back end acccum. snow out of this. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If this storm is strong like some models are showing, will it enhance the chances of a big -NAO in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yes it would be rain at that point cause it once again is really wrapped up and west. It started this last night at 6 z Here is better images The thing that concerns me here is that this is a progressive model with a SE Bias. It was correct in sniffing out the further west storm last storm and was the first to actually show it..So needless to say I will be watching this closely. Last time its most west extreme was on SNJ so, i think this is probably showing its most west extreme again and should be further east. How much is the question? Other models I feel should be going back to a big storm idea IMO A bigger storm means a warmer solution with heavy rain. If you want colder and snow potentials, you don't want a bigger storm this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A bigger storm means a warmer solution with heavy rain. If you want colder and snow potentials, you don't want a bigger storm this time. What we want is a flat wave that moves west to east with less phasing. That's probably the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What we want is a flat wave that moves west to east with less phasing. That's probably the best shot. Exactly! Then we would get a few inches of snow, followed by drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Exactly! Then we would get a few inches of snow, followed by drizzle. what about for the future blocking like the previous poster mentioned...we use this storm as the sacraificial lamb would a stronger storm be more of a help? or no impact at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I find it hard to believe it is impossible to get a really wound-up bombing low that could produce snow in the northeast. I am not saying it is likely, but the way people are talking here you would think it is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll gladly pass on a few inches of snow to get a strong low. Since a big snow storm is off the table, I'll gladly accept an ice storm and or heavy rain. For those that want the snow, the medium/long range looks very good. Better to pass up on an advisory event for a blizzard ten days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 what about for the future blocking like the previous poster mentioned...we use this storm as the sacraificial lamb would a stronger storm be more of a help? or no impact at all? Very well could be, but if the AO goes negative, we might not even need a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very well could be, but if the AO goes negative, we might not even need a -NAO. We also have a nice block over the Pacific which is going to help regardless of the NAO/AO state. All the models do seem to build the North Atlantic ridge anyway, regardless of the resolution of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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