Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 do any (or all) of the models take the snow pack on the ground into consideration when figuring their upcoming solutions (relative to temperature)?? Yes, updated daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't think they do, but I could be wrong. I know mos does, but im not sure models do. The global models definitely do. This is from 2003 and I'd imagine that the radiation scheme has been updated to better handle it since then. http://www.emc.ncep....oorthi/gam.html thanks guys!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 192 sub 1008 low over mobile al...precip up to southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 a good storm looks to be brewing post hr 180...the cutoff over the sw has now moved into new mex and western tex while the northern stream is diving down with another arctic blast. hmmmmmm... 50-50 low is in the perfect spot... gonna be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 198 sub 1004 low over se al...lgt precip to abe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That's good timing for those hoping for a snow day. Start off with some snow-->ice and they'll be cautious about having school.. So Dobbs Ferry will cancel school over a few hundreths of an inch of snow and ice?? Starting to sound like Waterbury... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 198 sub 1004 low over se al...lgt precip to abe... how does 500mb look? thanks tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 204 sub 1004 low over central ga...and looks to be another little low off hse thats giving the region .1-.25 qpf as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 how does 500mb look? thanks tom very nice, 50/50 low over the eastern coast of new foundland, northern stream is diving on the back side, riding on the ec...only thing is the ridge axis out west is far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 204 has a sub 1000 low over se sc...we are getting lgt precip from the departing storm off hse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 very nice, 50/50 low over the eastern coast of new foundland, northern stream is diving on the back side, riding on the ec...only thing is the ridge axis out west is far west. looks like an extension of the PV is surpressing heights a bit too much along the east coast, but it's an interesting set-up.. just so far out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 216 has a sub 1000 low bout 75 miles off hse, lgt precip for us with .1-.25 south of the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 204 has a sub 1000 low over se sc...we are getting lgt precip from the departing storm off hse... That looks promising.. the GFS was also advertising some events that had potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 pretty strong -nao looks to be more west based than before, though it looks like its more of a natl rigde that is just fixed up into greenland with some hgr hgts back into baffin island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The ridge in the Pacific is massive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 222 that storm move ene ots, we get brushed with .1-.25...dc gets hit hard with looks to be from an ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 definitely a pattern with lots of potential after early next week. I think thats all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Im not complaining, this is close enough for 200 hrs out. And the setup looks primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 how much QPF for the Tues 1/18 event? I'd take upper 30's and less than a half inch of rain-snowpack would come out ok in that scenario and then would freeze solid once the event is over..a foot of cement would be hard to get rid of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 do any (or all) of the models take the snow pack on the ground into consideration when figuring their upcoming solutions (relative to temperature)?? Yes, they do. The initial snow fields/snowpack (as well as ice) are updated, since this is critical for surface-sensitive satellite data usage (surface albedo) as well as the land surface model component to the forecast model itself. The information comes mostly from satellite (AFWA/Others) products . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW 12 Z NOGAPS @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 how much QPF for the Tues 1/18 event? I'd take upper 30's and less than a half inch of rain-snowpack would come out ok in that scenario and then would freeze solid once the event is over..a foot of cement would be hard to get rid of... for your area about .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 heres the hr 192 north america view so you can see what it looks like at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 is there any chance the rain turns over to snow for the Jersey Shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 heres hr 240, nice -nao starting to build in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 180-210hr potential on the ECMWF is loaded with potential, should the pattern play out as advertised on the model. That would be a very strong suited H5 setup to deliver snow to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Definitely interesting... So, its a time period to watch from next Saturday into next Thursday.. I'm trying to get a handle on the telleconnection indices that time period.. Now that NAO has trended toward positive as well as AO going a bit toward positive.. Be interesting how that goes as we get into next week.. But yeh, the Euro sure does make things interesting. As always, wonder how the ensembles show this. The GFS doesn't show this scenario.. definitely a pattern with lots of potential after early next week. I think thats all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 With the development of the standard (not extreme negative NAO we saw February 2010 and December 2010), with that H500 pattern as shown with the PNA ridge and higher heights out west, which supports shortwave energy on the backside of the trough, in turn supports a better chance for a Miller A or a Miller A/B hybird pattern when you get the PJ/AJ and to a lesser extent, the STJ perhaps when La Nina weakens further we will see more STJ moisture DIRECTLY from the STJ itself ( 2009-2010 winter). For now, I like to see when the PJ can dig toward the Gulf (the southern jet stream) form a Miller A, via Gulf moisture inflow and increase the divergence aloft in the trough, then going a negative tilt and roaring up the coast.... And tremendous cold in Eastern Canada will help as it should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This solution isn't really a fantasy because the MJO is moving towards phase 7/8. Phase 7/8 is a good phase for the east coast. A lot of storms happen when the MJO is in phase 8. The PNA is also trending positive with a tanking -AO. All signs in my opinion are pointing to a storm next weekend. Too early yet to speculate where and how big but this pattern coming up has a lot of potential. Definitely interesting... So, its a time period to watch from next Saturday into next Thursday.. I'm trying to get a handle on the telleconnection indices that time period.. Now that NAO has trended toward positive as well as AO going a bit toward positive.. Be interesting how that goes as we get into next week.. But yeh, the Euro sure does make things interesting. As always, wonder how the ensembles show this. The GFS doesn't show this scenario.. GFS shows a Miller B. that hits SNE. Ensemble mean also shows a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Definitely interesting... So, its a time period to watch from next Saturday into next Thursday.. I'm trying to get a handle on the telleconnection indices that time period.. Now that NAO has trended toward positive as well as AO going a bit toward positive.. Be interesting how that goes as we get into next week.. But yeh, the Euro sure does make things interesting. As always, wonder how the ensembles show this. The GFS doesn't show this scenario.. I agree 1/22 - 1/25 (beyond) looks interesting with potential and entrenched cold established... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.