MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Any news on any other of the 12z models besides the GFS. GGEM has a lot of rain for the East. The 850 line is near Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If you look at this run, and contemplate the pattern of the past two months, it is not difficult to see how this benefits us in the long range....if ever there was a year to bet on a February blizzard to round out the season, this is it. good ridging setting up over the west around days 9-10 but were back to the pattern of retrograding systems to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The posatives are that the pattern shows no signs of the dreaded la nina SE ridge. Instead looks like fairly presisten troughing in the east and a ride out west with an acitve southern stream. Obviously its super fantasy range but the pattern looks very interesting as well for the day 14-16 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty strong and consistent signal on the models that the peak of the cold will occur next weekend betwen fri night and sunday (1/21 - 1/23). Also looks like a light or moderate snow potential leading up to that cold 1/20 - 1/21.. Looks like the GFS ensemble mean also has this potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Seems like we have one 'warm' day in the 40s on tuesday but really not that much of a torch. Will be interesting to see how the snowpack does but even if we lose half, it will just have another inch of water in it. Keeps the cold and several light snow events for the duration of the month, which makes sense if we do truly get an arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the euro is pretty much like the gfs. Develops a wave over us we get .5-.75 of qpf, maybe a tenth of that is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 euro doesn't look too much better for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 euro doesn't look too much better for next week. How much stays frozen for the NW suburbs of NYC? Do we get any ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How much stays frozen for the NW suburbs of NYC? Do we get any ice? less than a tenth if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How much stays frozen for the NW suburbs of NYC? Do we get any ice? maybe briefly.. between 06Z and 12Z on Tuesday.. but it's very light QPF during that time frame.. and the warm air looks like it has no trouble making its way northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If you look at this run, and contemplate the pattern of the past two months, it is not difficult to see how this benefits us in the long range....if ever there was a year to bet on a February blizzard to round out the season, this is it. Definitely-- and la ninas tend to produce in February (February 1967 and February 2006 are two examples).... I'd venture to guess we'll see a larger area of widespread snow in a February snowstorm than either of the last two. I still think we'll see something in March also-- but February is favored to be our biggest month of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it doesnt torch really for the cities, low 40s....burbs prob around 40 to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 maybe briefly.. between 06Z and 12Z on Tuesday.. but it's very light QPF during that time frame.. and the warm air looks like it has no trouble making its way northward. I'm surprised the warm air is shown to make such a quick path northwards on the models with the high just leaving Quebec. I wonder if we'll see some colder solutions, at least in terms of 2m temps, as we approach the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm surprised the warm air is shown to make such a quick path northwards on the models with the high just leaving Quebec. I wonder if we'll see some colder solutions, at least in terms of 2m temps, as we approach the event. it's possible the models might not be able to pick up on the shallow cold air.. High pressure is still in good control even into Monday night.. if we radiate early, then it might be possible... to be quite honest... it's not like southeasterly winds are screaming in the area.. the flow looks relatively light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it's possible the models might not be able to pick up on the shallow cold air.. High pressure is still in good control even into Monday night.. if we radiate early, then it might be possible... to be quite honest... it's not like southeasterly winds are screaming in the area.. the flow looks relatively light. When does the storm start hitting the area on the Euro? Is it Monday night? It sounds as if the 2m and 850 line are pretty similar in their advancement north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 When does the storm start hitting the area on the Euro? Is it Monday night? It sounds as if the 2m and 850 line are pretty similar in their advancement north... early morning tues to midnight monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it's possible the models might not be able to pick up on the shallow cold air.. High pressure is still in good control even into Monday night.. if we radiate early, then it might be possible... to be quite honest... it's not like southeasterly winds are screaming in the area.. the flow looks relatively light. do any (or all) of the models take the snow pack on the ground into consideration when figuring their upcoming solutions (relative to temperature)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 do any (or all) of the models take the snow pack on the ground into consideration when figuring their upcoming solutions (relative to temperature)?? I don't think they do, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I definitly think the low level temps are suspect. This might very well end up being more of a frozen rain event than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 euro has a hr 156 storm. Actually it would prob cut, but the euro is building somewhat of a -nao that helps surpress the hgts along the ec so that from the cities north and west it looks mainly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro is advertising a cutoff in the southwest and a broad area of overrunning precipitation acorss much of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 early morning tues to midnight monday That's good timing for those hoping for a snow day. Start off with some snow-->ice and they'll be cautious about having school.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't think they do, but I could be wrong. I know mos does, but im not sure models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Long range pattern looks much better on EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 at 168, freezing rain from arkansas through most of Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ice storm for the south hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 168 is actually building a pretty soild -nao might not be fully west based, but its the best ive seen on the models so far. Also has the pos pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't think they do, but I could be wrong. The global models definitely do. This is from 2003 and I'd imagine that the radiation scheme has been updated to better handle it since then. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/moorthi/gam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 a good storm looks to be brewing post hr 180...the cutoff over the sw has now moved into new mex and western tex while the northern stream is diving down with another arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The global models definitely do. This is from 2003 and I'd imagine that the radiation scheme has been updated to better handle it since then. http://www.emc.ncep....oorthi/gam.html Thanks! I pulled out the blurb about snow cover so folks can read. Snow cover is obtained from an analysis by NESDIS (the IMS system) and the Air Force, updated daily. When the snow cover analysis is not available, the predicted snow in the data assimilation is used. Precipitation falls as snow if the temperature at sigma=.85 is below 0 C. Snow mass is determined prognostically from a budget equation that accounts for accumulation and melting. Snow melt contributes to soil moisture, and sublimation of snow to surface evaporation. Snow cover affects the surface albedo and heat transfer/capacity of the soil, but not of sea ice. See also Sea Ice, Surface Characteristics, Surface Fluxes, and Land Surface Processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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