tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 very disorganized.. so many pieces of energy in this trof.. it's a very messy 500 mb chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 light QPF at 96. 0 line approaching NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Those couple of days we had around New Years's where it got well up into the 50's killed the snow pack. As many have said yesterday, mid 30's and moderate rain is not going to kill the snowpack, just add's to the moisture content and potential flood bomb. In any event, I really like the long range. Obviously their is alot of time to go but it looks like we will have another long wave trough to work with. Welcome to winter on the I-95 corridor. It is rare, if not impossible, to have constant snowstorms without a warmup and a cutter that takes all the snow. Even 95-96 we had a cutter a few days after the Blizzard. If you are looking for no cutters, you will have ti live out west somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hour 99.. 0 850 and surface near POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 102 - freezing line at ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the wavelength of the trof is smaller this run, but it's disorganized.. and very weak surface pressures pretty much everywhere.. there is nothing here that can really bring the surface pressure down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the wavelength of the trof is smaller this run, but it's disorganized.. and very weak surface pressures pretty much everywhere.. there is nothing here that can really bring the surface pressure down. Looks like basically a non-event here, maybe 1" snow, a bit of ZR, and then over to rain. I'm a substitute teacher so I'm wondering if school might be delayed or closed. Probably not going to be enough this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 finally a low starts to crank near cape cod at 117 in response to vorticity advection into the lee side of the trof and a bit of divergence.. but really not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If we could only get the northern stream to dig further south and phase with the southern stream we would be talking miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Solid rainfall for the coast on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 essentially, what this solution amounts to is brief light snow.. dusting to an inch... High pressure wants to let go pretty quickly. I'm not sure I'd buy into it completely with the airmass in place, especially near the surface.. I'd think there would still be some icing in the valleys, but GFS suggest warm enough for rain fairly quickly and then showery conditions until cold frontal passaege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Everyone basically get's an inch of rain out of this run and it's basically a non-event since it won't be enough to cause flooding and very little QPF would fall below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The GFS actually trended a little colder with this storm. Also, the southern wave dug more than previous runs. Lets see if this starts a trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 next week, GFS is despeartely trying to phase another clipper like system with some energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Everyone basically get's an inch of rain out of this run and it's basically a non-event since it won't be enough to cause flooding and very little QPF would fall below freezing. seems like alot of QFP for such a disorganized storm--is there even a cutter on this run or just the low off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The flow is too progressive... the first wave dies off, but a new stronger wave dives out of the upper midwest, while the southern wave continues along.. light QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 next week, GFS is despeartely trying to phase another clipper like system with some energy in the southwest. Yes, you can see it just misses the phase...the energy also looks less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 very dynamic clipper at 162.. this looks somewhat interesting.. this might try to do a coastal redevelop off the new england coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The flow is too progressive... the first wave dies off, but a new stronger wave dives out of the upper midwest, while the southern wave continues along.. light QPF Brutally cold over Canada on the GFS, -40C 850s consistently showing up over the Northwest Territories under a 474dm PV. Looks like a -NAO redeveloping with a 1032mb warm high over the North Atlantic...>0C 850s approaching Greenland at 144 hours. Double block for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The flow is too progressive... the first wave dies off, but a new stronger wave dives out of the upper midwest, while the southern wave continues along.. light QPF How is the flow too progressive with a +PNA and a +NAO? I thought it wouldn't be that progressive with those two being positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yep... there it goes... coastal bombing out off the coast of Boston... Major cyclonic vorticiity advection.. probably a heavy burst of snow with these dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not buying into the GFS anyway, it's shown very poor run to run consistency for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yep... there it goes... coastal bombing out off the coast of Boston... Major cyclonic vorticiity advection.. probably a heavy burst of snow with these dynamics. Looks like a Manitoba Mauler type system as the 0z ECM advertised...great set-up with a 570dm ridge over the North Atlantic. Going to be crazy cold after that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 too bad the north atlantic looks like it does at this time frame.. had there been any blocking more west-based, this would have a lot of poential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 -20 850's get into NYC at hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like a Manitoba Mauler type system as the 0z ECM advertised...great set-up with a 570dm ridge over the North Atlantic. Going to be crazy cold after that storm: that 570 dm ridge is nice.. wish it was further south and west though.. that might help out. I think it's a little too far out of reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 good ridging setting up over the west around days 9-10 but were back to the pattern of retrograding systems to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty strong and consistent signal on the models that the peak of the cold will occur next weekend betwen fri night and sunday (1/21 - 1/23). Also looks like a light or moderate snow potential leading up to that cold 1/20 - 1/21.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Any news on any other of the 12z models besides the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Any news on any other of the 12z models besides the GFS. For some reason the canadian site is down so cant tell you about the GGEM.. The euro will be out between 1 and 130. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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