WeatherX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Agreed, I remember last year I think it was the 12/8 event....I had nearly 5" by sunrise at 300-400 feet. I was talking to my friend who lives at about 100, not even right on the sound, and he said he had no snow whatsoever. We live maybe 4 miles apart Yup...as far as the early week event is concerned, I can easily see 2-4" before a changeover or it ends as drizzle...seen this way too many times before....good times continue shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Very true, and the same applies to the panhandle of CT. Even only 5 miles from the Sound to the NY border, living with elevation and away from the sound, you see 5-10" more each year, and there have been plenty of times where there is a noticeable difference with snow accumulation during marginal events. Even still, the north shore of the sound does better than Long Island or the city I've noticed an amazing difference here...my house is on a huge hill at 350' in a wooded area and I eek out probably 3-5" more per season than the downtown Dobbs Ferry co-op, which has averaged 36" annual snowfall since its inception in 1947. I would think my true average is close to 40"/year at my house in the hills, which is also away from the Hudson River, a moderating influence on the climate in Westchester. Central Park only averages 28" per season. The strip of higher elevations that runs down central Westchester clearly averages more snow than the sides of the county, near the Hudson River and LI Sound. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 800-900' hills near Yorktown in Northern Westchester average 45-50" snowfall per year. My mom is a teacher at Mt. Vernon HS down near the Bronx border in the SE section of the county, and they tend to have fewer snow days than my district. The 2/25/2010 Snowicane was one of the most remarkable events in terms of elevation gradient. I measured 26" at my house at 350', and yet the downtown co-op reported 18". You could see the difference walking downtown as the snow had much more trouble accumulating there during the daytime with temperatures around 34F...it was probably around 32.5F-33F at my house, and we got destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Agreed, I remember last year I think it was the 12/8 event....I had nearly 5" by sunrise at 300-400 feet. I was talking to my friend who lives at about 100, not even right on the sound, and he said he had no snow whatsoever. We live maybe 4 miles apart I measured about 3" in that event, changed over to rain at like 5am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Im in a similar situation. Although out of the UHI effect, I'm around 350' as well. LIke you I expect a decent front end dump to a mix, the most likely rain. How much will be determined later...but NYC's suburbs see 4"+ most of the time with these events. BTW, when we define coastal plain lets be sure were all talking about the same place: This is the coastal plain Long Island isnt part of the coastal plain? i mean the north shore has several hills over 300, the highest at 400...but i think its still considered the coastal plain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW the 6 Z NOGAPS LOL at the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LOL at the nogaps. We want to see it be way more progressive than that for this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I guess it's all relative but I find it funny how some of the same people that were complaining that they were only getting 6-12" out of the last event are excited over an advisory event. Just because I'm a severe weather nut, I'm hoping for 0.5"-0.75" of ice. Would love to see an ice storm warning out of this but reallity tells me 1-3" of snow covered by slop making for a very nasty mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If only this was all going to be white, figures that we finaly get a storm track which would bring widespread 0.75"+ QPF along the entire east coast and we loose most of the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even though I would hate to see a rainstorm, my car does need a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even though I would hate to see a rainstorm, my car does need a wash. If were going to get significant rain ontop of snow, I would rather have all rain. Their is nothing worse than trying to shovel 2-4" of completely saturated snow with puddles ontop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If were going to get significant rain ontop of snow, I would rather have all rain. Their is nothing worse than trying to shovel 2-4" of completely saturated snow with puddles ontop. I agree, it basically turns into cement and back injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I guess it's all relative but I find it funny how some of the same people that were complaining that they were only getting 6-12" out of the last event are excited over an advisory event. Just because I'm a severe weather nut, I'm hoping for 0.5"-0.75" of ice. Would love to see an ice storm warning out of this but reallity tells me 1-3" of snow covered by slop making for a very nasty mess. your call volume would increase with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Henry M I would urge caution predicting too much rain in Philly and NYC. I can see hwo they get 2-4 inches of snow and the rain end sup being insignificant. The cold air is just not going to move out of the way all that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 your call volume would increase with that I would hope with an ice storm warning people would stay the hell off the roads, we always get the most MVA calls with a bit of underforecasted freezing drizzle. Best example was December 09, where 30 minutes of freezing rain led to widespread MVA's. Luckily nobody was seriously injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If only this was all going to be white, figures that we finaly get a storm track which would bring widespread 0.75"+ QPF along the entire east coast and we loose most of the cold air I agree. Look I cannot complain we've got tons of snow so far, better than our seasonal average even. However, this is winter and snow should always be the result and stuff like this really ticks me off. I know, I know climatology supports this at times in my area especially in a moderate-strong La Nina and based on the fact I don't live in the arctic or at 1,000+ foot elevation but it still ticks me off regardless. And here, I'll save any repliers the trouble: dbc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I would hope with an ice storm warning people would stay the hell off the roads, we always get the most MVA calls with a bit of underforecasted freezing drizzle. Best example was December 09, where 30 minutes of freezing rain led to widespread MVA's. Luckily nobody was seriously injured. yeah, like that would ever happen. People have no common sense!. I remember sometime in the 80's, responding to 20 wrecks on I-81 within minutes. We just went from one to the next. down the south bound lane, up the north bound lane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I agree. Look I cannot complain we've got tons of snow so far, better than our seasonal average even. However, this is winter and snow should always be the result and stuff like this really ticks me off. I know, I know climatology supports this at times in my area especially in a moderate-strong La Nina and based on the fact I don't live in the arctic or at 1,000+ foot elevation but it still ticks me off regardless. And here, I'll save any repliers the trouble: dbc= With a strong/mod nina like were facing, were lucky that every storm hasn't turned out like this so far. I don't think this pattern is going to last though. Plenty of signs that were going to be looking great for a MECS in the Jan 24-31's time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 With a strong/mod nina like were facing, were lucky that every storm hasn't turned out like this so far. I don't think this pattern is going to last though. Plenty of signs that were going to be looking great for a MECS in the Jan 24-31's time frame. I know. We are very fortunate to have gotten what we've had and I am thankful for it. Just wanted to vent a little bit on this upcoming potential. Maybe the qpf is overdone a bit and the rain won't be so significant. I just feel like vomiting when thinking about the snow pack disappearing like it will if we get mostly rain with this next one. It is so hard to build a snow pack in the first place. Two such historic dynamic storms as we've had within three weeks of each other shouldn't have the snow pack it left behind virtually gone a week after the three weeks transpired. Heck, what we have on the ground right now isn't deep enough considering these two historic storms we've just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm thinking an icy disaster for my area Berks(Reading)/Lehigh(ABE) in PA...thoughts It's definitly possible, with the model spread I don't think any scenario is completely off the table but it does look like the heavy/rain massive meltdown scenario is looking less likely. I think Morris County, Northern Passaic County on north and west are at risk for > or = 0.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know. We are very fortunate to have gotten what we've had and I am thankful for it. Just wanted to vent a little bit on this upcoming potential. Maybe the qpf is overdone a bit and the rain won't be so significant. I just feel like vomiting when thinking about the snow pack disappearing like it will if we get mostly rain with this next one. It is so hard to build a snow pack in the first place. Two such historic dynamic storms as we've had already shouldn't have the snow pack it left behind gone in less than a month's time. Heck, what we have on the ground right now isn't deep enough considering these two historic storms we've just had. Those couple of days we had around New Years's where it got well up into the 50's killed the snow pack. As many have said yesterday, mid 30's and moderate rain is not going to kill the snowpack, just add's to the moisture content and potential flood bomb. In any event, I really like the long range. Obviously their is alot of time to go but it looks like we will have another long wave trough to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Those couple of days we had around New Years's where it got well up into the 50's killed the snow pack. As many have said yesterday, mid 30's and moderate rain is not going to kill the snowpack, just add's to the moisture content and potential flood bomb. In any event, I really like the long range. Obviously their is alot of time to go but it looks like we will have another long wave trough to work with. Yes, the New Year's warm up really hurt. The long range does look promising and I hope it pans out favorably for cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For some odd reason, it doesn't bother me not having any snowpack.. I just like the snow falling and trying to get as much as possible in one storm ... As far as I can care, I wouldn't mind if it all melted the following day.. I don't know if that's weenie-ish behavior.. Someone hotdog me please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If were going to get significant rain ontop of snow, I would rather have all rain. Their is nothing worse than trying to shovel 2-4" of completely saturated snow with puddles ontop. Why bother shoveling it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For some odd reason, it doesn't bother me not having any snowpack.. I just like the snow falling and trying to get as much as possible in one storm ... As far as I can care, I wouldn't mind if it all melted the following day.. I don't know if that's weenie-ish behavior.. Someone hotdog me please Not me. I have been searching for that 95-96 repeat when no matter what happened I had tons of snow on the ground. We had some warm-ups and even significant rain that followed the infamous 95-96 blizzard but it made no dent and snow was on the ground until friggin' late April/very early May in SE Monmouth county of all places for goodness sake! I remember that like it was yesterday and it always puts a big smile on my face thinking about it. This is why the 95-96 winter will always be king for me. I will likely never see anything like that again in my lifetime. 2002-03 came close but not quite as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Why bother shoveling it? For starters, when it drops back into the 20's at night or the next day it all freezes and makes for a skating rink. I have memories of basically pushing the slop into the storm drain at the end of my driveway. I also don't really care about a snowpack. It does nothing for me, only sets the stage for a flood prone spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For some odd reason, it doesn't bother me not having any snowpack.. I just like the snow falling and trying to get as much as possible in one storm ... As far as I can care, I wouldn't mind if it all melted the following day.. I don't know if that's weenie-ish behavior.. Someone hotdog me please :weenie: It's getting to the point that I want all this snow gone. I always have a hard time find parking everywhere I go because I have a small car and there is no way I am trying to park on top of a pile of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ok..the GFS is rolling. So far it looks a tad slower with the southern stream and a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It's getting to the point that I want all this snow gone. I always have a hard time find parking everywhere I go because I have a small car and there is no way I am trying to park on top of a pile of snow. Blasphemy! I work nights as a delivery driver, and I still protect my snowpack. When there is snow on the ground, do everything possible to keep it there. These cold nights are great. 20.0/11 here in Westchester....partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the shortwave over texas is much farther south at hour 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the shortwave over texas is much farther south at hour 63 yeah, it is in the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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